The Next President market, to be decided between the Melbourne Cup and Oaks Day, is the officially biggest betting market of all time. Nearly $500 million has been matched on Betfair already, and the number could grow by another 50% in the next few days!
We’ve brought in the experts, with the team at Bet Refinery sharing their resources, as well as provide their betting recommendations to help you with your 2020 US Presidential Election betting.
2020 U.S. Election Betting Tips
The Trump Card Creates Arbitrage
What makes this market fascinating, beyond the global ramifications, is that the weight of money is all for Donald Trump. You hear anecdotally that the money has been five to one for Trump over Biden. That might have eased up recently, but if you look at the bookmaker social media feeds, and their respective odds, you can see that Trump attracts all the action.
How often do you see the TAB intentionally create arbitrage opportunities by making their prices stand above Betfair? They’ve been doing that for weeks.
Presidential Election Winner Odds
As of the time of writing, the market from Betfair is:
Biden - $1.50
Trump - $3.00
Here is the market movement over time:
Relevant History
Almost all of the data, since before Donald Trump was even elected, has been against the current President. When Trump and Clinton challenged each other for the 2016 Presidency, they were the least popular candidates ever.
Trump won the Electoral College system, but Clinton recorded more votes in total. Despite becoming President, Trump’s approval rating on the polls has never been above 50%. Biden has also been comprehensively beating Trump in the polls. On FiveThirtyEight, the latest national poll shows a Biden margin of +8.6. That’s greater than Clinton over Trump, when she started the 2016 as a deserving $1.20 favourite.
Swing States
Also good to know, when Trump won in 2016, he won almost every swing state. He even won the Democratic hubs of Pennsylvania and Michigan, by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively.
For Biden to win, he just has to grab a few of those states back. Given he was born in Pennsylvania, the market and polls think that he will reclaim that. If you scroll through all the graphs and data on swing states you’ll see just how many chances Biden has to win in 2020.
Additional Resources
We love Paul Krishnamurty on Twitter. He thinks Biden at $1.50 is an incredible betting opportunity. And FiveThirtyEight makes Biden an even more comprehensive favourite. Their model, which updates daily, makes Biden an 89% chance, which converts to odds of $1.12.
Conclusion
The value is clearly with Joe Biden. Donald Trump’s odds are much shorter than his real chances of winning due to recreational money. People criticise the polls recent failures (Trump 2016, Brexit, Australian Federal Election), but that doesn't mean they have no value. Biden is a dominant pick vs Trump, and FiveThirtyEight are even more confident.
We’re betting heavily on Joe Biden. He should be much shorter than $1.50 to be the next president of the United States. But if you really like Trump, back him to win Florida. We’re doing that too.
Joe Biden 46th U.S. President
$1.50
Republicans to win Florida
$1.75
