Racing at Morphettville on Saturday and the first of four Group 1 races over the Adelaide Autumn Racing Carnival is to be run and won. That is the Australasian Oaks for the fillies. I’ll preview that race and the other three black type races on the card as well as provide my two best bets and a Quaddie!
Morphettville Racing Tips – Saturday, April 29th 2023
Best Bet – Race 8 # 3 Loco
Next Best – Race 5 #1 Heuristic
Value – Race 9 #1 She’s Fit
Race 5 – Group 3 Breeders’ Stakes (1200m)
(1) Heuristic (NEXT BEST) – He won with a bit in hand here last start, racing clear late. He carried 1.5kg more than the second-placed Harley ‘n’ Rose that day and now they meet on level weights. The rise to 1200m looks ideal for this son of Street Boss and he maps for a lovely run.
(2) Harley ‘n’ Rose – As mentioned, he was no match for Heuristic last start, but he ran on well into second. He’ll strip fitter as he was only second up there. Can he improve enough up to 1200m to turn the tables? I don’t think so.
(6) Causation – Thought she jumped out extremely well prior to the debut run when rolled as a short favourite in the small field. There were excuses, however. Thought highly enough of to contest a Group 3 at start two.
(1) Heuristic – Win
$2.60 (3 Units)
Race 7 – Listed Port Adelaide Cup (2500m)
(5) Captain Envious – He has failed to flatter in two starts this prep but he’s clearly a much more dour type this prep who now gets a suitable trip third up. You only have to go back to last spring and his third to Soulcombe over 2600m to see he has the class to win a race like this. Back onto firmer footing helps as well.
(1) Horrifying – Struggled last start on a heavy track but he’s a much better horse than that. He’s fitter again and he has runs on the board over 2500m, winning at Flemington last preparation. With luck from the wide draw, he’ll be in the finish.
(8) Supagirl – Import having her third start in Australia here. Both runs have been solid as she builds fitness. She won at this stage of the prep last time in and has performed well over this distance range.
(5) Captain Envious - Win
$5.50 (1.5 Units)
Race 8 – Group 3 Chairman’s Stakes (2000m)
(3) Loco (BEST BET) – Smart son of So You Think who narrowly went down to another promising horse in Gringotts in Melbourne last start. Gives every impression 2000m is right up his alley and this looks a very winnable race for his first foray into stakes grade. Stable have a good opinion of him and leading jockey Damien Oliver should give him every chance from barrier 5.
(4) Red Sun Sensation – Going much better than the form guide would indicate this prep. He worked home well against an on-pace bias last start, and did the same two back. A 2nd to Mr Maestro over 1800m last spring reads well for this.
(8) Impending Link – Comes out of a Pakenham maiden win but it was a good win to the eye, circling the field from last and running them down stylishly. The runner up there has come out and won at its next start.
(3) Loco – Win
$2.60 (5 Units)
Race 9 – Group 1 Australasian Oaks (2000m)
(1) She’s Fit (BEST VALUE) – In form WA filly who must deal with a wide draw, but in a race that doesn’t possess much speed, she can settle handy without doing much work. She has the right jockey on, and I don’t think the drop back in a trip is a bad thing. Very exciting horse.
(5) Amati – Keen to see this horse stepping out to 2000m as I think she’ll relish it. Her run in stakes grade two back was very good behind a smart one, running on against the pattern. Forgive the last start run at Sandown Lakeside as she didn’t get much room. She has since been given a tune-up trial to keep her ticking over.
(12) Proscenium Arch – Have always liked this filly and I think she’s ticking over nicely this preparation since a bad first up run. Her and Amati look well over the odds in this.
(1) She’s Fit – Win
$7.60 (1.5 Units)
Quaddie Selections
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Race 7 – 1,2,5,6,8
Race 8 – 1,3,4,8
Race 9 – 1,3,5,7,12
Race 10 – 3,9,13
