There are 3 blockbuster NRL matches on Sunday, with the opening match taking place in Newcastle as the Knights host the Rabbitohs. Each team will be motivated by different factors heading into this game and finding success is important to both. The Knights will relish this opportunity, while the Rabbitohs want to travel north and leave with a victory. Before You Bet is here to take a detailed look at the match and what possible outcomes can be had at the end of 80 minutes.
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Knights vs Rabbitohs Predictions & Tips: NRL Round 9 2026
Comprehensively outplayed
The Knights received a rugby league lesson last week in their 44-12 home loss to the Panthers. As hard as they fought over 80 minutes, they were defeated in all areas, unable to compete with the might of their opponents. Limited to just 44% possession, they did themselves no favours by completing at just 65% or averaging just 7.8m per carry. Their defence was worse, missing 58 tackles and allowing 10 line breaks. They are lucky their opponents didn’t score more; the ease of their tries courtesy of the Knights poor execution is of a concern moving forward. They are capable of better and have shown glimpses of that this year.
Breaking a dreaded hoodoo
Having never won in Melbourne, the Rabbitohs travelled down south with a tough task of defeated the Storm who were on a 5-game losing streak. It appeared to phase them little, as they powered their way to 9-tries in 80 minutes. Superior in every area, they were dominant in their execution, taking a 24-nil lead into HT. This performance was established with 55% possession and an 81% completion rate, leading to 10.5m per carry, 636 PCM’s, and 14 line breaks. They scrambled well defensively; a lucky try to their opponents was the only disappointing factor in the night. It was also a strong statement from a talented team.
Stats that matter
- The Knights have won the past 3 meetings between these two sides. This has led to a 53% strike rate at this ground for the Knights and 41% for the Rabbitohs.
- In the past 5 matches, the average margin of victory is 18.2 points. They have been somewhat low scoring matches, with the average total points sitting at 45.4 points.
- The Rabbitohs are superior on both sides of the ball in 2026. They score and average of 31ppg and concede just 21ppg, compared to the Knights, who score only 23ppg and concede 28ppg.
The form team and full of confidence
They’re two key indicators of teams performing well and the Rabbitohs are displaying both factors in abundance. Had they have narrowly defeated the Storm, it might have been a different story; rather, they made a statement with their performance last week and are well placed to continue with that performance. The Knights have confidence return to their team with the inclusion of Ponga and Best. Their inclusion changes the chances of the home side and improves both their attack and edge defence. The Rabbitohs still appear to be the more capable team, but Newcastle should not be underestimated. Some of their defensive efforts this season have been impressive; an 80-minute performance has eluded them in this area, but they can produce that standard. They will make the Rabbitohs work hard for the victory, especially in front of a passionate home crowd. This should see the visitors just scrape home. Providing their point scoring dominance does continue though, take them to cover only the line and increase your stake in this selection.
Rabbitohs -1.5
$1.90 (2 units)
Knights vs Rabbitohs Same Game Multi
Leg 1 = Total points over 52.5 – see above for justification.
Leg 2 = Mitchell to score – despite not having a great record against the Knights, Mitchell is a man in form, and the left edge of Souths is firing. He has 8 tries in the past 5 games (and went scoreless last week) and will again want to make a statement in this match.
Leg 3 = Dufty to score – his NRL return has seen him score in both matches. That is no coincidence, and you can take confidence in your investment by the fact that both tries have been different, proving that he is capable in a variety of situations.
SGM Odds = $5.48 at Dabble
Knights vs Rabbitohs Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday 3rd May
Location: McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Time: 2pm (AEST)
Odds: Knights $2.05 vs Rabbitohs $1.78
Line: +1.5
Points: 52.5
Where to Watch Knights vs Rabbitohs
Watch the Knights vs Rabbitohs match live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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