Women’s rugby league is back this weekend with a blockbuster State of Origin series between New South Wales and Queensland. It’s the pinnacle of the sport now and such is the jillaroos dominance, it is close to surpassing the international game. For the third consecutive season, it is a 3-game series, and this spreads the matches over a month, growing the intrigue in the exciting clash. Before You Bet will be here to preview each match, with the aim of finding you a winner or two to add to your viewing enjoyment.
Check out our full preview and tips for Game 1 of the State of Origin below and if you’re keen to play along with our tips, consider joining UpYaGo!
2026 NRLW State of Origin Game 1 Predictions & Tips
Aiming to continue their dominance
The Blues were amazing last year, clinching the series inside the first two games. That surprised Queensland with their dynamic execution and rigid defence; they limited the Maroons to just 3 tries over 140 minutes. Losing the third game of the series, there is a sense of unfinished business for this team heading into the 2026 instalment. They’ve named a similar team to last year and will be out to prove a point at a ground they are still winless at. Some may argue that they are stronger with Elliott available for selection and Penitani Gray shifting to the back row. There is no reason why this talented team shouldn’t improve further into 2026.
Forging a new path
Aside from aiming to regain the series from their opponents, the Maroons have a tough task ahead of them with a change of personnel in key positions. It is a new-look spine with Kiria-Ratu and Brown the halves pairing, hoping that the experience of Upton at fullback can add another dimension to their attack. Points were an issue for them in the 2025 series and the change of direction, despite being forced upon them, might deliver the change they desire. They will also need to tighten up the middle; the Blues exposed their slow speed around the ruck, and it was the reason why they were defeated inside two matches.
Stats that matter
- The Maroons have won both games played at McDonald Jones Stadium, including Game 3 18-14 last year.
- The Blues won the first two games last year 58-18, recording two 13+ victories in Game 1 and 2.
Go with the quality, until you are given a reason not to
The Blues are the stronger of the two sides and they are installed as overwhelming favourites to grab victory in Game 1 of the series. There is little to suggest that the Maroons can change the expected outcome of this contest; despite having a strong pack of forwards and capable outside backs, they are missing stability and creativity within their halves to offer the spark needed to be successful over 70 minutes. Experience is littered throughout the Blues squad, and this will give them the right balance to be successful. Their powerful forward will work to establish a strong platform for their talented outside backs to capitalise. The visitors will make the Blues work for the result; they are capable, but it will require a complete performance which appears to be beyond them (...for now). Once the Blues gather enough momentum, they should have enough attacking power to cover the line which is offered, as they have done on numerous occasions in the past few series.
Blues -9.5
$1.90 (2 units)
NSW vs QLD Same Game Multi
Leg 1 = Total points under 35.5 – the average in last year’s series was 36 points but only one of the 3 games went over this tally. All 3 games in 2024 were also under this and the rules are not mirrored from the NRL, meaning that a defence-focussed game is likely to occur.
Leg 2 = Fressard to score – dominant in last year’s series, Fressard scored 4 tries in the 3 matches played. She will again be a danger on the edge and is a chance from anywhere on the field.
Leg 3 = Sergis to score – she scored twice in three matches last year and is always a threat on the edge. It is likely that the Blues playmakers will want to get the ball in Sergis’ hands as much as possible in positive attacking position. With a new player marking her, she will likely take advantage of this situation.
SGM Odds = $17.75 at Bet365
New South Wales vs Queensland Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Thursday 30th April
Location: McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Time: 7:45pm (AEST)
Odds: New South Wales $1.30 vs Queensland $3.20
Line: -9.5
Points: 35.5
