Friday Night Football heads to Suncorp Stadium with one of the strangest betting profiles of the season, as the Dolphins host a Melbourne Storm side that suddenly looks nothing like the powerhouse we are used to seeing. This would normally be a spot where Melbourne are heavily respected by the market on reputation alone, but after six straight losses and a horror Anzac Day performance, the Storm are now being asked to prove they still have a pulse.
That is exactly why this game is interesting from a betting perspective. The Dolphins have the better recent form, the better attacking rhythm, and the more stable week-to-week profile. But the Storm are at plus money, and my numbers have this close to a pick’em. When you combine that with the desperation factor, the Storm become the side I want. The official Round 9 teams have Melbourne without Jahrome Hughes due to concussion protocols, with Tyran Wishart named in the halves, while the Dolphins lose Jake Averillo, replaced by Trai Fuller.
Let's break it all down!
Dolphins vs Storm Prediction & Tips: 2026 NRL Round 9
Dolphins Still Searching for the Killer Edge
The Dolphins’ 20-18 loss to the Warriors in Wellington last week was another frustrating result because there were enough good moments to win the game, but not enough control to actually finish it. They stayed in the contest, had late chances, and even had Jamayne Isaako line up a two-point field goal attempt to potentially push the game to golden point, but again walked away with nothing. It continued a worrying stretch, with the Dolphins are now on a four-game losing run and sitting 12th, with their 2025 attack missing in action.
There is still plenty to like in their attack. Isaako crossed twice, Herbie Farnworth continues to provide power and polish on an edge, and Isaiya Katoa has enough creativity to stress teams when the Dolphins get quick ruck speed. The problem is they are still too reliant on momentum bursts rather than full-game control. Against the Warriors, they were brave after Tom Flegler’s sin bin, and their defence did enough late to keep the scoreboard within reach, but the overall profile remains inconsistent.
That inconsistency matters against Melbourne. The Dolphins can score, and they absolutely have enough strike to win this. But they have not been ruthless enough when games are sitting there for them. They continue to invite pressure through discipline lapses and can go through extended periods where their attack becomes too sideways. Against a Storm side that is desperate, that is dangerous. If the Dolphins leave this game alive late, Melbourne are exactly the kind of team that can still punish them despite their current slump.
Storm Hit Rock Bottom, Now What?
Melbourne’s 48-6 loss to South Sydney on Anzac Day was one of the most shocking Storm performances in recent memory. The Rabbitohs ran in nine tries, Tallis Duncan scored a hat-trick, and Craig Bellamy was reportedly as embarrassed as he has ever been in his coaching career. For a club that has built its identity on standards, effort, and defensive pride, this was not just a loss, it was an alarm bell.
The broader context is ugly. Melbourne have now lost six straight, an almost unthinkable run under Bellamy, and they are sitting near the bottom of the ladder. Injuries are part of the story, with Hughes out this week after a failed HIA, but that does not excuse the defensive collapse we saw against South Sydney. The Storm missed assignments, lost contact, and looked passive in moments where they usually punch back.
That said, this is exactly the kind of spot where the market can overcorrect. Melbourne are not playing well, but they are not suddenly devoid of talent. Sualauvi Faalogo remains dangerous from fullback, Harry Grant is still elite at dummy-half, Shawn Blore returns on an edge, and Stefano Utoikamanu gives them a strong middle platform. The question is not whether they are at their best. They clearly are not. The question is whether they have fallen far enough that they should be underdogs in a near pick’em game. I don’t think so.
Dolphins vs Storm Recent History
The most recent meeting between these sides came in Round 7 last season, when the Dolphins stunned Melbourne 42-22 at Suncorp Stadium. That result is relevant because it showed the Dolphins can absolutely trouble the Storm with speed and tempo, particularly when the game opens up. It was also one of the clearest examples of the Dolphins’ ability to turn Suncorp into a genuine advantage when their attack is flowing.
Recent results:
2025 Round 7: Dolphins def Storm 42-22
2024 Round 25: Storm def Dolphins 48-6
2024 Round 16: Storm def Dolphins 30-24
2023 Round 12: Storm def Dolphins 24-16
So, the Storm had won all three matchups prior to the big loss last season, can they bounce back and get a much-needed win?
Storm Desperation Enough at Plus Money
This is not a comfortable bet. Nothing about backing Melbourne right now feels comfortable. But betting is not about comfort, it is about price, and at plus money I think the Storm are the value side.
My number has this close to a pick’em. The Dolphins have the more stable attack and the home ground advantage, but Melbourne have the desperation, the better long-term system, and the kind of professional embarrassment that usually creates a reaction. Bellamy sides do not often get publicly humiliated and then quietly accept it the following week. That matters.
The Hughes absence is significant, but Wishart is not being asked to be a superstar. His job is to keep the ball moving, kick well enough, and let Grant, Faalogo, Munster and the middle rotation drag Melbourne back into the contest. If the Storm can win enough ruck speed and avoid gifting the Dolphins short fields, they can absolutely win this game.
The Dolphins’ attack is dangerous, but they are not a side I fully trust to close. They have now been in several games where they looked capable and still found a way to lose the key moments. Melbourne, for all their issues, still have a higher defensive ceiling than they showed last week.
This is a buy low spot on a desperate team at the right number. If the Storm were short favourites, I would be much less interested. But at plus money, with the fair spread close to even, I’ll back Melbourne to finally show some pride and stop the bleeding.
Storm to Win
$2.40 (1 Unit)
Dolphins vs Storm Player Prop Bet
Isaako continues to pile on the points on the right wing for the Dolphins, scoring two last week to bring his season total to five tries in seven games. The Storm left edge defence has struggled all year, and with yet another change on that side this week, expect Isaako to score again.
Jamayne Isaako (1+ try)
$1.80
Dolphins vs Storm Same Game Multi
Leg 1: Storm ML – See above best bet.
Leg 2: J Isaako (1+ try) – See above best prop bet.
Leg 3: A Lisati (1+ try) – The rangy backrower returns from injury in round 9, and he is sure to demand plenty of ball on the left. With Hughes out, I expect the Storm to go left more often, and I’m hoping Lisati starts on that side to take advantage.
SGM Odds: $19.91 at Ladbrokes
Dolphins vs Storm Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Friday, 1st May
Location: Suncorp Stadium - Brisbane
Time: 8:00pm AEST
Weather: Possible showers, 21 degrees
Odds: Dolphins ($1.65) vs Storm ($2.25)
Line: Dolphins (-3.5)
Points: 53.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week and are correct at the time of writing.
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