AFL Round 7 continues on Friday night with an Anzac Day Eve battle between Richmond and Melbourne at the MCG. The Tigers remain the only winless team in the competition through six rounds, while the Demons have surprised the footy world with their 4-2 start, most recently taking down the reigning premiers.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Tigers vs Demons below. And if you’re keen to back in our tips, consider doing so at Bet365 - one of the biggest and best sportsbooks in the world!
Richmond vs Melbourne Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 7
Tigers Worse Than First Thought
Richmond enters this Anzac Day Eve fixture as the only winless team in the AFL, sitting at 0-6. While the transition to a younger list was always going to involve some growing pains, the current lack of competitiveness is starting to raise eyebrows. Injuries have certainly played their part; captain Toby Nankervis remains a massive omission, leaving a patchwork ruck division to face one of the best in the business. Matters have not improved this week with premier ball-winner Tim Taranto also ruled out due to concussion protocols. The return of Tom Lynch provides a seasoned target in the forward half, and there is genuine intrigue around the debut of pick seven, Sam Cumming. However, coming off a 75-point demolition by North Melbourne, the Tigers look like a side searching for an identity that is still a few seasons away.
Demons Respond in Style
Melbourne provided a professional response to their unexpected slip-up against the Bombers by knocking off the reigning premiers, the Brisbane Lions, in a two-point thriller. That win leaves them with a 4-2 record and significantly more momentum than most pundits predicted for them this year. The major casualty from that victory was Harrison Petty, who is sidelined this week following a peculiar delayed concussion. Despite that loss, the Demons are purring. Max Gawn is as dominant as ever, and Jack Steele has already established himself as a vital cog in the midfield since his offseason move from St Kilda. With Kozzie Pickett now a permanent, damaging fixture in the engine room, Melbourne possesses a blend of grit and flair that the Tigers will struggle to contain.
Recent H2H History
The MCG has been very kind to the Demons this season, where they hold a perfect 4-0 record. Their historical record against Richmond is equally one-sided, having claimed victory in their last six meetings. Their most recent encounter last year resulted in a 20-point win for Melbourne, 83-63. While list turnover on both sides means past stats should not be over-analysed, the trend remains clear. Interestingly, this matchup has become a graveyard for high scores lately. Their last two games failed to reach a combined 150 points, and four of their last five meetings have comfortably stayed under the total points line.
What to Expect? Here’s Our Best Bet
While it is difficult to see anything other than a Melbourne victory, the 38.5-point handicap is a significant hurdle that feels accurately set, offering little room for an obvious edge. The more compelling play is found in the total points market. Although the Demons have been more attacking this season and are capable of clearing triple figures, Richmond’s scoring struggles are profound. So far this year, the Tigers have posted scores of 68, 53, 90, 60, 75, and 55. For the total to push past the current mark, Melbourne would likely need to do almost all of the heavy lifting. Given the Tigers’ inability to find the goals consistently, the under is the logical play in what should be a one-sided but disciplined performance from the Demons.
Under 187.5 Points
$1.91 (1 Unit)
Richmond vs Melbourne Prop Bet
For the first time this season, the Demons played two rucks last weekend with Max Heath coming in to chop out superstar Max Gawn. Now, the pair (assuming Heath gets picked again) get the best matchup in the league for rucks, against the bottom-of-the-ladder and Nankervis-less Tigers. Gawn will have the opportunity to spend larger chunks of time resting at full forward, and with the Demons likely to dominate territory, he should get at least a couple of looks at the big sticks.
Max Gawn Anytime Goal Scorer
$2.15
Richmond vs Melbourne Same Game Multi
Under 187.5 Points: For reasons mentioned above in our best bet.
Max Gawn Anytime Goal Scorer: For reasons mentioned above in our prop bet.
Seth Campbell Anytime Goal Scorer: Continues to be a reliable source of goals for the Tigers despite limited opportunity. Two goals last week pushed his tally up to six for the season in five outings.
Same Game Odds: $6.00 at Bet365
Richmond vs Melbourne Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Friday 24th April
Time: 7:40pm AEST
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Odds: Richmond $6.05 vs Melbourne $1.13
Line: +38.5
Points: 187.5
Where to Watch Richmond vs Melbourne
You can watch the Tigers vs Demons live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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