UFC 190 Preview and Betting Tips

August 1st 2015, 12:14am, By: Bettingwithgas

UFC 190 sees the promotion return to Brazil with a number of MMA legends competing and headlined by the most dominant athlete in the sport, Ronda Rousey. Read on for our UFC 190 betting tips.

UFC 190 – Sunday August 2nd

Ronda Rousey (c) 11-0 vs. Bethe Correia (5) 9-0

If last event gave us MMA’s version of Muhammad Ali, this time we have MMA’s Mike Tyson. Rousey is up there with Serena Williams as the most dominant female athlete on the planet. She has won her 11 career fights in an average of 2 minutes and sixteen seconds and only one opponent has made it out of the first round.  An Olympic level Judoka, her clinch work is on another level to other women in the division and she could probably hip toss most male bantamweights around the octagon. Once on the ground she is able to transition to her signature armbar with a massive variety of setups. She is still evolving on the feet and while she has a solid jab and uppercuts from the clinch, she is very hittable. However most 135-pound women don’t have the power to punish her striking shortcomings and I don’t expect Correia to be the first.

I’m not going to spend time breaking down Correia skills, because to be honest they don’t really matter. Rousey has won her last three title defences in a combined 1 minute and 36 seconds and all three of those were against far superior fighters to Correia.  Correia has earned this fight partly by beating two of Rousey’s training partners (both of whom have been cut from the UFC) and partly because there’s no one else left for Rousey to fight.

Prediction: Barring one of the greatest upsets in combat sports, Rousey will win this fight.  Most likely it comes by armbar, however due to comments Correia made regarding her father’s suicide, Rousey has expressed a will to prolong the fight and punish the challenger with strikes. Problem here is trying to find betting value. I think Rousey by KO/TKO is worth a look and also put Rousey in a multi to take advantage of the Sportsbet enhanced multi odds. Rousey by armbar in under 2 minutes.

Bet: Ronda Rousey to win by submission in Rd 1 - $2.00 at Luxbet via promotion

 

Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua (8) 22-10 vs Antonio ‘lil Nog’ Nogueira (11) 21-6

This fight is a rematch of one of the greatest fights in MMA history. However that was ten years ago, and both of these athletes are well past their primes. Neither of these fighters really look for takedowns so I expect it to play out entirely on the feet. Lil Nog’s last fight against Anthony Johnson was over quick, but he still managed to look awful. He was stiff, slow and hesitant to throw any kind of offensive. At his best lil Nog has solid boxing and utilizes a stiff southpaw jab. If the fight does go to the mat, I think lil Nog will have the advantage as he has exceptional BJJ.

Shogun is a former UFC and PRIDE champion known for his devastating knockout ability. While many of his physical gifts have left him over the last few years, he remains a dangerous puncher. He also uses a lot more kicks than lil Nog that will allow him to keep the fight at distance. He also has a far superior clinch game and should be able to damage lil Nog with knees if they do tie up. His biggest weakness in recent times has been the deterioration of his chin and although lil Nog is not a power puncher, I don’t think he will be able to eat too many clean shots.

Prediction:  I think Shogun is the more powerful and diverse striker. His defensive striking is worry but I think he will be able to keep lil Nog at distance and outwork him early before finishing the fight later on. Mauricio Rua by 3rd Round TKO.

Bet: Mauricio Rua by KO or on Points - $1.62 at Sportsbet

 

Minotauro ‘Big Nog’ Nogueira 34-9-1 vs Stefan Struve (15) 25-7

This bout sees lil Nog’s twin brother Big Nog up against a Dutch kickboxer nicknamed ‘The Skyscraper’. Struve is 7 feet tall and has to cut weight to make the heavyweight division’s 120kg limit. But unbelievably for a fighter of his size, he is horrible at keeping the fight on the outside. Instead of using his jab to maintain distance, he prefers to exchange on the inside. This was most notable in the Roy Nelson fight, where despite being a foot taller, Struve was knocked cold by a counter after attempting an inside uppercut. He has also only fought once in the last 2.5 years after a litany of health and personal issues including an athletic commission enforced layoff due to a congenital heart disease. He has however begun training with the Blackzillians - one of the best MMA teams in the world - and at only 27 years of age, there is still hope they can turn into a fantastic fighter. On the ground he has a nice array of submissions and his long limbs mean he has a dangerous guard. He has absolutely no wrestling game to speak of, so if this fight does go to the mat it’s because Big Nog wants it there.

Big Nog is an absolute legend of the sport and a pioneer of Brazilian MMA. He is without doubt in the top 2 or 3 heavyweights ever.  However, he has been fighting the best heavyweights in the world for over 15 years and has absorbed ridiculous amounts of damage in that time.  He has lost a lot more than he has won in recent years and has looked significantly worse with each outing.  Big Nog is not a power puncher, but has effective boxing. He tends to use combinations to initiate clinches as his bread and butter is the ground game. Big Nog has some of the best BJJ in the heavyweight division. Even off his back he has exceptional sweeps to gain advantage.

Prediction: This one is so hard to pick because of the uncertainty surrounding each fighter’s condition. At their best, Big Nog has an advantage in every aspect and in front of his adoring home crowd I think he will find a way to get it done.  Minotauro Nogueira by 3rd Round TKO.

Bet: Minotauro Nogueira to win – $2.52 at Sportsbet

 

Antonio ‘Big Foot’ Silva (12) 18-7-1 vs Soa Palelei 22-4

Big Foot is a fighter who I hope retires following this fight. He gets his nickname from his enormous frame and features, which are actually due to a medical condition resulting in increased growth hormone. Following a UFC ban on testosterone replacement therapy, Big Foot has looked a shell of his former self. Since the ban he has lost two straight fights to knockout and looks completely unable to take a punch. At his best Big Foot was an intimidating foe. He was deceptively nimble for someone of his size and threw with significant power.  He also has great takedowns and devastating ground and pound. Based purely on skill, he probably holds an advantage in every aspect of this fight.

Australia’s Soa Palelei has a fantastic opportunity to get a big name scalp here. He is currently 3-1 in his second UFC stint and a win here will catapult him into the division’s top 10.  Palelei has a pretty one-dimensional game, he uses his tremendous physical gifts and wrestling background to get his opponents to the mat than pounds them unconscious with hammer fists (hence the nickname ‘The Hulk’). On the ground Soa is a BJJ blackbelt, although he doesn’t look for submissions, he is adept at passing guard and staying heavy on top. On the feet he is good at avoiding punches, but hardly ever throws any himself. His achilles heel has always been cardio, which is exceptionally poor even for a heavyweight. So if he doesn’t manage to finish Big Foot early, this one could get ugly.

Prediction: Big Foot has looked so physically diminished in his last few fights I just can’t see him making any kind of resurgence, especially considering he is up against one of the division’s most athletic specimens. This is heavyweight MMA, so Soa will have to be wary of a big shot but I think ultimately he will finish this one via ground and pound. Palelei via TKO in the 1st round.

Bet: Soa Palelei via KO/TKO – $1.72 at Sportsbet

 

Jessica Aguilar 19-4 vs Claudia Gadelha (1) 12-1

This fight will determine who is next to face Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the women’s straw weight title. Gadelha comes into this one as a sizable favourite following her razor close decision loss to Jedrzejczyk in December. Gadelha is such a strong, powerful fighter and will have significant physical edge here. She is primarily a grappler, holding a BJJ black belt. On the feet she is far less technical than Aguilar, but will have a power and speed advantage. Because she cuts so much weight to make the 125 lbs limit, Gadelha does tend to slow down in fights and I can definitely see Aguilar taking advantage of this to win the 3rd round. It must also be said that in close fights Brazilian judges tend to side with the Brazilian fighter in close fights, which may also benefit Gadelha.

This is Aguilar’s octagon debut and while she owns victories over high quality opposition she is yet to test herself against the UFC’s elite. She is a savvy veteran of the sport, well rounded in every aspect without really excelling in one area. Her takedown offense is good and when she has opponents down she displays fantastic top control. She is a technical striker and utilizes good footwork, but lacks striking defence or fight ending power.

Prediction: Gadelha seems to have the edge in every aspect here. She has a stronger grappling pedigree, is the more athletic fighter and has the heavier hands. I expect Aguilar to test the Brazilian and avoid being finished, but Gadelha should prevail via decision. Gadelha via 29-28 decision.

Bet: Gadelha on points – $1.73 at Sportsbet

 

 

Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

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