Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Warwick Farm on Wednesday, May 13th.
We've got a seven-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail in the true position.
Find our preview and betting tips for the meeting below!
Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Wednesday, May 13th
Best Bet: Race 1 - (1) Hinchbeast
Best Value: Race 3 - (4) San Marco
Keen to start the day with a bet on (1) Hinchbeast here, who looks hard to beat should he run to his best. He was only fair first up but he was ridden quieter than he normally is and he also copped a check at the 600m mark. He steps up sharply in distance from 1100m to 1400m and I expect he'll be ridden more aggressively with Nash Rawiller booked. Nash has a 25% strike rate for trainer Bjorn Baker, while Baker has a 37.5% strike rate here at Warwick Farm. Everything points to a strong showing. (4) Acrophobic should go well on debut after trialling well on three occasions. James McDonald has been aboard him in his past two trials and takes the ride on race day. Notably, there is runners from both Waller and Godolphin represented here, so the fact he's on O'Shea's horse is noteworthy.
I'm against the top few in the market here so I think there's a bit of value. (2) Regal Stage is now fourth up and while the stable has a good record here at Warwick Farm, and the horse gets a positive jockey change, the horse has only ever won first up before and I thought he was relatively plain at Bathurst last start. (3) Fast Talking finished even further back at Bathurst and his only real metropolitan form is a 0.4L 4th in the Country Championship two starts ago on a heavy track. (5) Big Bad Bruce is in good form and running consistently, but he's only won two of his 17 career starts and his only real metro form is his Canterbury run last start, but that form can also be suspect at times. (8) Mubariz and (6) Song And A Prayer are the two for me, at $7.50 and $13 respectively. Mubariz has returned in good order this prep and if you ignore his poor run on heavy ground two starts ago, his other two runs look pretty good. They were both here at Warwick Farm so with McDonald going back on, he looks a good chance if they're able to make ground. Song And A Prayer was a keen bet for me last start and while she had a good run into the race, she was ultimately pretty disappointing. I'm going to give her one more chance today at the odds. Nash sticks with her - he's got a 30% strike rate for John Thompson, and Thompson has a 25% strike rate here at Warwick Farm. She gets the winkers on for the first time today, hence I'm willing to give her another chance, and she should be box seating from barrier 2. Mubariz and Song And A Prayer here for me.
Value: (6) Song And A Prayer $13
Pretty happy to be with (4) San Marco each way here at $6.00. He produced a terrific win first up at Newcastle, where he drew the widest gate, carried 60kg, and came from last on the turn to win by 1.5L. That's not easy to do over 900m. He's got a good second up record with four placings from five starts, a great record at the distance with nine placings from 10 starts, and he's won at metropolitan level before, albeit in a Highway Handicap. Tim Clark rode him in that victory and he's booked for his return to town today. The slight query is he's better on wet ground than he is on firm ground, but I still think he's a real live chance today. (3) Aussie won first up at Gosford before failing over 1200m here at Warwick Farm last start. He drops back in trip to the 1000m today, and he's got a great record at this distance, with two wins and a 2nd from three starts. He's won his only prior third up run, he gets blinkers back on today and I've already highlighted above that Bjorn Baker has a 37.5% strike rate at this track. It's worth noting, however, that Tim Clark rode him last start and jumps off to ride San Marco. (10) Mixed Blossom has won five of her eight starts when first up from a spell, so she can be included at $26, while (5) Invincible Lad can improve third up with the winkers going back on. He's a $21 chance.
This is a wide-open race with not many, if any, standing out. I'm pretty happy to take on the favourite (4) Loves To Rock. He won consecutive races at Newcastle and Wyong before finishing midfield at Rosehill last start. Anthony Cummings hasn't had a single winner from 32 runners at Warwick Farm this season. I was originally keen on (5) He Runs Away but he's been scratched this morning. (7) Maybach now goes on top. He's had three runs back from a spell and he gets the blinkers back on today. He's undefeated at the distance, one of which was here at Warwick Farm. I'd expect to see him ridden more aggressively today with that gear change. (9) Moon Panther has been around the mark all prep, albeit in lower races than this at country and provincial level. He gets blinkers on for the first time and again, he's a representative of trainer Bjorn Baker who has a 37.5% strike rate at Warwick Farm. This is the last of three runners on the day for him and he looks the value at $12. (3) Poulton Le Sands drops out of Saturday grade and his form prior to last start would see him be competitive in this.
Value: (9) Moon Panther $12
Tricky little race. (4) Faretti returns to the track today for the first time since November and he returns as a gelding. His trials have been a bit hard to gauge this time in. Visually, if you compare them to last prep, you'd suggest they aren't as good, but then the form out of his most recent trial, which he won, has proven to be pretty good. Two horses have come out of that trial and won first up, and it should have been three but Southern Lad had no luck in the Wagga Town Plate. The stable have a good record here at Warwick Farm, operating at 22% this season, he should find the front and be hard to run down. (2) Battleground had no luck from the minute the gates opened last start and this is a much easier race. His form prior was enough for him to be somewhere around the mark here. (3) Dream Circle went close over 1200m here last start and that was in a decent form race behind Satin Socks. He gets a positive jockey change today with Collett taking over from Glyn Schofield. (8) Madam Legend is undefeated this prep and now steps up to metro grade. He draws well and can definitely be competitive. (13) Starla and (16) Duenna can be included at double figure odds.
(8) Petronius might appear as though he's a bit of a bridesmaid, and we should get the answer to that today, because he finds a very winnable race. He ran 2nd first upbehind Satin Socks, who is entered to run in Listed company this Saturday. That was his fourth 2nd placing from as many starts when first up from a spell. His only career win was when he was second up, and that was over the likes of Promotions and Entente, which is very decent form. He drops slightly in weight, should roll forward to offset the wide draw, and if he improves at all on that first up run, he'll be very hard to beat. (9) Holy Reign looks a bit of value at $10. He was run down late first up at Wyong but he's got a very good second up record, with two wins and a 2nd from three starts. Getting back onto firm ground is a positive, and trainer Kim Waugh has had eight top-two finishes from 14 runners at Warwick Farm this season. Expecting him to improve like he typically does with that run under his belt, and he can be competitive at double figure odds in this race. (11) My Demetra is struggling to win but she is rarely far away. (3) Bigboyroy and (6) Jetski have claims.
Value: (9) Holy Reign $10
The favourite here is (9) Special Snap and I'm pretty happy to take him on. He was only beaten 1.1L last start but the fact remains he's now had five starts on good ground and has never run a place. He's much better on wet ground and he's not going to get that here, so at $4.00 he has to be taken on from my perpsective. I was keen on (10) Lillemor first up when she started a relatively firm favourite in a similar race at this track and distance. She was caught three-wide the trip on speed and faded to finish 6th. Normally, I'd be keen to forgive and follow my money, but I thought she was pretty ordinary despite her tough run, and John O'Shea only has two winners from 26 runners here this season. (5) Bound To Win is a decent price at $7.00. She wasn't beaten all that far by Satin Socks first up and she was ridden by an apprentice. Tommy Berry takes over today and she gets the blinkers applied for the first time. Expecting sharp improvement from her and that should see her be very competitive here. I was very keen on (4) Feather at Kensington last week but she was balloted out of the race and lines up here instead. Her last start run over this track and distance was very good, sizzling home along the rail. That was on heavy ground, but she's plenty good enough on firm ground too. The wide draw hurts even with JMac booked for the ride. Don't want to back her but also don't want to lose on her so will try and squeeze in a saver bet on her. Would be very wary of (1) Kedah with Bowman booked to ride first up for Kris Lees. (11) Joy And Mirth has claims.
