The first NRL game on Friday night heads to Melbourne for an intriguing clash between the Storm and Knights. Few would’ve expected the Storm to be outside the Top 8 and the Knights to sit inside the Top 4 at this stage of the season. With everything capable of turning around in the blink of an eye, the outcome of this game is essential to both teams hopes moving forward. This contest promises to be an exciting one an Before You Bet is here to help with a detailed look at the action ahead.
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Storm vs Knights Predictions & Tips: NRL Round 14 2026
Slowly finding their groove
It was a return to the Storm of old last week as they pulled apart the Roosters in Melbourne on their way to a 18-4 victory. In a boost to their confidence, the timely performance reminded the competition what they’re capable of. The victory was built on discipline, controlling possession (58%) and a high completion rate (91%). This allowed them to make 9.1m per carry, 555 PCM’s, and 7 line breaks. Their defence was arguably the best it has been in 2026 also, missing just 20 tackles for the match. If this is maintained, they will be back in the Top 8 in no time at all.
Sloppy but enough
In a risky game for the Knights at home, they captured a 28-22 victory over the Eels courtesy of poor execution from their opponents as opposed to their own excellence. Leading just 12-10 at HT, improvement was needed in the second half and thankfully, it was enough. They were always going to struggle with just 46% possession and a 73% completion rate. These two areas must improve if they wish to remain in the Top 4. Despite having more line breaks, they also trailed their opponents in total metres and PCM’s. If their forwards are not dominating the middle, the pressure increases on their halves and (talented) outside backs to produce points. The better teams in the competition will make them pay for such mistakes.
Stats that matter
- The Storm have won 7 of their past 8 games against the Knights in Melbourne. This explains their superior home record (76%) and why the Knights have just a 15% strike rate with 2 wins from 13 games.
- In the past 5 games between these two sides, and despite 3 being decided by 8 points or less, a blowout 48-point victory has the average winning margin at 16.8 points. The average total points in the same games is 46.4 points, with outliers at both ends of the spectrum.
- The Knights have the edge over the Storm in 2026 in attack, averaging 28ppg compared to their opponents 24ppg. The Storm are slightly better defensively, allowing just 24ppg compared to the Knights 25ppg.
The Storm need this more than the Knights do
It will be a simple matter of desperation for the home team. As the impact of Origin looks set to increase on the Storm, they will see a home game like this one as crucial if they are to be a chance of making the Top 8 in 2026. The loss of Smith at 5/8 will see Sharpe shift back into this position; many will argue this is a better attacking option for the Knights, but it does weaken their edge defence. The Storm will take improvement from their performance last week. Keeping the Roosters to a low total is a sign that their defensive structure (and attitude) has improved. You cannot overlook the Knights though, and they have proven as much this season. Perhaps a horrible record at this ground will further support the home team in their search for success and when compared to their opponents, the Storm appear stronger in most areas across the park. Providing they shut down their strong attacking options and take their own chances when presented to them, they should win by enough in this contest to cover the line which is on offer.
Storm -4.5
$1.90 (2 units)
Same Game Multi
Leg 1 = Total points under 49.5 – see above for justification.
Leg 2 = Hughes to score – it has been a few quiet weeks for him in terms of try scoring. Perhaps, that is because he is the general, pulling the strings for his team as they aim for success. You can expect Hughes to want to challenge the Knights defensive line more often, especially with 3 tries from his last 5 matches against them.
Leg 3 = Leo to score – following a stint in reserve grade, Leo has come back a stronger player. With 4 tries in the past 3 matches, the validation of the decision is there for all to see. He will again be a threat as he aims for a try against the Knights in the first game he has played against them.
Storm vs Knights Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Friday 5th June
Location: AAMI Park, Melbourne
Time: 6pm (AEST)
Odds: Storm $1.60 vs Knights $2.35
Line: -4.5
Points: 49.5
Where to Watch Storm vs Knights
Watch the Storm vs Knights match live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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