Sunday afternoon at GIO Stadium gives us one of the more interesting underdog spots of the round, although I’m not even sure the Cowboys should be the underdog. Canberra have been better recently, but their team list situation is heavily tied to Origin. Ethan Strange was called into the NSW side after Mitchell Moses was ruled out, and if he makes his Origin debut and fails to back up, that is a massive loss for the Raiders. Hudson Young is also in the Origin mix, which only adds to the uncertainty.
North Queensland, meanwhile, bring back important pieces. Reuben Cotter is expected to back up from Origin, Murray Taulagi returns after concussion, and Todd Payten has a side that has won eight of its past 10 games. The Cowboys have been playing better football than the market is giving them credit for, and I make them a solid favourite in this matchup.
Raiders vs Cowboys Prediction & Tips: 2026 NRL Round 13
Raiders Better, But Origin Creates a Problem
Canberra’s form has definitely improved from the early season mess. They look more physical, more direct and more connected than they did through the opening month. Kaeo Weekes has given them energy from the back, the middle rotation is still capable of winning contact, and players like Strange and Young have helped give the side more punch.
The problem is that the very players driving that improvement are now caught in the Origin squeeze. Strange being called into the NSW side is a brilliant story for him and a big endorsement of his talent, but it creates an enormous club level question. He is not just another player in Canberra’s system, he is one of their main attacking points and one of their best ball runners. If he backs up flat, or if he is scratched late, the Raiders’ attack changes dramatically.
Young is similar. His edge running, defensive aggression and combination with Strange are a major part of Canberra’s best football. If he is fatigued after Origin, that weakens one of the Raiders’ strongest corridors.
Last week’s 30-22 loss to the Dolphins also showed Canberra are still not fully trustworthy. The Dolphins were undermanned but still ground them down to claim a fourth straight win, and the Raiders again had periods where they could not turn pressure into scoreboard control.
At full strength, I have the Cowboys as decent sized favourites. With Origin uncertainty, I can’t have Canberra favoured.
Cowboys Keep Surging
North Queensland’s last start was a strong 30-18 win over South Sydney, and it continued their impressive run after a poor start to the season. Jake Clifford led them well, the Cowboys handled an injury-hit Rabbitohs side professionally, and the result pushed more weight behind the idea that North Queensland are now a genuine top eight calibre team.
The most encouraging part is that they have kept winning without Tom Dearden. That could have derailed their season, but Clifford has steadied the side, Scott Drinkwater has remained dangerous out the back, and the forward pack has been good enough to keep them in games. Now they get Cotter and Taulagi back into the named side, which only strengthens their profile.
Cotter backing up from Origin is still something to monitor, but even if he is not at peak output, his presence gives the Cowboys a major lift. Taumalolo, Cotter, Griffin Neame and the rest of the middle rotation should be able to match Canberra physically, especially if the Raiders’ Origin players are running on tired legs.
The Cowboys are not perfect. They can still drift defensively and invite teams back into games. But their current form is strong enough to trust, and their attack has more variety than it did earlier in the year. Against a potentially disrupted Raiders spine, that makes them very live.
Raiders vs Cowboys Recent History
North Queensland have dominated the recent history between these two teams, winning the past seven games between the teams. Last year, the Cowboys won 30-20 at home, despite losing Coen Hess for 10 minutes in the sin bin, missing 44 tackles, and making 11 errors. Can the Raiders turn things around this week?
Recent results:
• 2025 Round 4: Cowboys def Raiders 30-20
• 2024 Round 24: Cowboys def Raiders 42-4
• 2024 Round 15: Cowboys def Raiders 34-16
• 2023 Round 1: Cowboys def Raiders 19-18
• 2022 Round 6: Cowboys def Raiders 18-12
This week is less about old head-to-head trends and more about who is best equipped to handle Origin fallout. On that front, I give North Queensland the edge.
Cowboys to Cause the Upset
This is one of the stronger side opinions of the round. I make the Cowboys a solid favourite, and if the market is giving us plus money, I’m happy to take it.
The Strange factor is massive. If he does not back up, Canberra lose one of their main attacking weapons. If he backs up but is physically and emotionally drained, that is still a downgrade. Same goes for Hudson Young. The Raiders’ best football over the past month has been built around aggression and energy, and Origin week can sap both. Young played the full 80 minutes last night, and even if he plays, could have his workload and minutes reduced.
The Cowboys also have the better recent form line. Winning eight of their last 10 matters. It tells us they are not just beating bad teams; they have rebuilt belief, structure, and toughness. Clifford is doing enough to steer the side, Drinkwater remains the attacking spark, and the middle rotation looks strong enough to manage Canberra’s forward power.
At GIO Stadium, this will not be easy. Canberra will make it physical, and if Strange and Young both back up well, the Raiders can absolutely win. But betting is about price. I don’t agree with the market making Canberra favourites, particularly with their best players coming off Origin.
North Queensland should be much closer to favouritism, and in my numbers they are. I’ll take the Cowboys to cause the upset and continue their strong run.
Cowboys to Win
$2.25 (1.5 Units)
Raiders vs Cowboys Player Prop Bet
As mentioned above, Weekes has been dynamic this season for the Raiders, scoring 7 tries in 11 games. At home on Sunday afternoon, expect the speed of Weekes to get us over the line for this bet.
Kaeo Weekes (1+ try)
$1.88
Raiders vs Cowboys Same Game Multi
Leg 1: Cowboys ML – Slightly safer than the best bet.
Leg 2: K Weekes (1+ try) – See best prop bet.
Leg 3: T Chester (1+ try) – Let’s not mention Tom Chester’s new nickname, instead we will mention the Raiders’ horrible left edge defence, which has conceded 54% of all tries against the Raiders this season. Chester has speed to burn and will give the try line another crack this weekend.
Raiders vs Cowboys Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday, 31st May
Location: GIO Stadium - Canberra
Time: 4:05pm AEST
Weather: Overcast, 11 degrees
Odds: Raiders ($1.65) vs Cowboys ($2.25)
Line: Raiders (-3.5)
Points: 53.5
Where to Watch Raiders vs Cowboys
Watch the Raiders vs Cowboys clash live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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