Sunday afternoon at McDonald Jones Stadium gives us a top eight matchup that could have been one of the games of the round if both sides were at full strength. Instead, Origin has stripped both teams of major names, and that is why this becomes the lowest confidence betting play of the week. The Knights are without Kalyn Ponga and Bradman Best, while the Dolphins lose Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Selwyn Cobbo, Max Plath, Tom Flegler and Jack Bostock to Origin involvement. Isaiya Katoa is also out with a fractured wrist, forcing Brad Schneider into halfback.
That is an enormous amount of attacking class and physical power missing. Fletcher Sharpe shifts to fullback for Newcastle, Fletcher Hunt replaces Best in the centres, and Sandon Smith moves to five-eighth. For the Dolphins, Trai Fuller comes in at fullback, Jake Averillo returns in the centres, Tevita Naufahu starts on the wing, and Tom Gilbert returns from a throat injury.
Given the outs on both sides, this feels like a game that should stay tight. The bet is either team to win by 1-10 at $1.95 with Ladbrokes, but it is a small play only.
Knights vs Dolphins Prediction & Tips: 2026 NRL Round 18
Knights Still Winning the Ugly Ones
Newcastle’s 12-6 win over the Tigers last week was not pretty, but it was exactly the kind of result that good sides find a way to bank. The Knights were made to work, the Tigers stayed in the fight, and the game remained tense deep into the second half. For a side sitting fifth, those are the wins that matter during the grind of the season.
This week, the challenge becomes much harder from a selection standpoint. Ponga’s Origin recall removes Newcastle’s most dangerous attacking player and their most important backfield organiser. Bradman Best being called up for NSW takes away strike, yardage and physicality in the centres. Those are two enormous outs in a game against a Dolphins side that can still score even when undermanned.
The Knights still have quality. Fletcher Sharpe is an exciting replacement at fullback, Dominic Young and Greg Marzhew give them power on the wings, Dane Gagai adds experience, and Dylan Brown remains the key attacking organiser. Sandon Smith moving into five-eighth gives them another ballplayer, while Phoenix Crossland, Jacob Saifiti, Dylan Lucas, Tyson Frizell and Mat Croker keep the middle competitive.
The issue is ceiling. Without Ponga and Best, Newcastle may still be solid, but they lose the kind of star power that turns half chances into tries. That probably makes them more conservative. Expect them to lean on field position, Brown’s kicking game and their forward pack rather than trying to win a shootout.
At home, that should keep them right in it.
Dolphins Missing a Stack of Strike
The Dolphins come into this after a brilliant 26-24 win over the Warriors, a result that reinforced their credentials as a genuine top four threat. They were brave, resilient, and found enough late to beat one of the competition’s best sides. But this week’s team looks completely different.
The outs are massive. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is their most dangerous broken-field player. Selwyn Cobbo gives them size and finishing. Jack Bostock has been in outstanding form and now earns a NSW debut. Max Plath and Tom Flegler are huge middle/effort losses. Katoa’s fractured wrist strips them of their best young playmaker. That is a serious chunk of their identity gone in one week.
To their credit, the Dolphins still have enough to compete. Trai Fuller is a livewire at fullback, Jamayne Isaako remains a class finisher and goal kicker, Jake Averillo returns from hand surgery, and Herbie Farnworth gives them genuine strike in the centres. Kodi Nikorima and Brad Schneider are experienced enough to steer the side, while Jeremy Marshall-King is crucial around the ruck.
Tom Gilbert returning is a big inclusion. He brings toughness and defensive presence off the bench, which helps offset some of the forward losses. Felise Kaufusi also starts in the front row, giving the Dolphins another experienced body to help absorb Newcastle’s middle.
Still, this is not the Dolphins at full strength. They can win, but it is hard to see them blowing Newcastle away with so many key attacking pieces out.
Knights vs Dolphins Recent History
These sides met twice last season, and Newcastle won both in quite diverse ways. The Knights beat the Dolphins 26-12 in Round 2, leading 20-0 after half an hour and never looking troubled, before they produced a come-from-behind win in Perth in round 16, winning 26-20. That Perth result was particularly notable, with Newcastle upsetting a red-hot Dolphins side and showing they could handle the matchup even when Redcliffe were in strong form.
Recent results:
• 2025 Round 16: Tigers def Knights 42-22
• 2025 Round 2: Tigers def Knights 20-4
• 2024 Round 27: Knights def Tigers 10-8
• 2024 Round 8: Knights def Tigers 34-18
• 2023 Round 23: Knights def Tigers 20-14
Tight Matchup the Right Play
This is not a game I want to be heavily involved in. Both teams are missing too many stars, and that makes projections difficult. Newcastle without Ponga and Best are a completely different attacking side. The Dolphins without Tabuai-Fidow, Cobbo, Bostock, Plath, Flegler and Katoa lose speed, power, creativity, and middle work rate.
That is why the tight margin market appeals more than trying to pick a side. Either team to win by 1-10 gives us the most likely game shape without needing to perfectly solve which reshuffled side manages the disruption better.
The Knights have the home ground advantage and probably the slightly more stable spine with Dylan Brown still there. The Dolphins have enough experienced players to stay composed, especially through Marshall-King, Nikorima, Kaufusi and Gilbert. Neither side looks built to dominate the other in this particular week.
If Newcastle win, I see it being through field position and Brown controlling the game late. If the Dolphins win, it is likely through Fuller, Farnworth or Isaako producing a key moment rather than a complete 80-minute domination. Both paths point to a close finish.
At $1.95, either team 1-10 is worth a small play. But it is absolutely the lowest confidence bet of the week because Origin has ripped so much certainty out of both lineups.
Either team to win by 1-10 points
$1.95 (1 Unit)
Knights vs Dolphins Player Prop Bet
The Knights’ left edge defence has struggled all season, and with Bradman Best missing this week, more uncertainty surrounds that edge. Averillo will be looking to mark his comeback with a try to try and forge him way back into the team.
J Averillo (1+ try)
$3.10
Knights vs Dolphins Same Game Multi
Leg 1: Either team by (1-10) – See best bet.
Leg 2 J Averillo (1+ try) – See above best prop bet.
Leg 3: D Lucas (1+ ty) – Keeps scoring tries for fun on the left edge, and despite Ponga missing, should still see plenty of action.
Knights vs Dolphins Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday 5th July
Location: McDonald Jones Stadium - Newcastle
Time: 4:05pm AEST
Weather: Showers, 15 degrees
Odds: Knights ($1.95) vs Dolphins ($1.87)
Line: Dolphins (-1.5)
Points: 51.5
Where to Watch Knights vs Dolphins
Watch the Knights vs Dolphins match live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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