St Kilda will look to keep its slim wildcard hopes alive when it takes on Richmond in Round 23, with the Saints desperate to respond after a disappointing 44-point defeat to Carlton last weekend.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Tigers vs Saints below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Richmond vs St Kilda Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 23
Tigers Showing Some Fight
Richmond sits 17th with a 3-18 record, but there have been signs of genuine improvement in recent weeks. The Tigers led Adelaide by 13 points during the third quarter last weekend before eventually falling 63-54 at Adelaide Oval, with their work around the contest giving the Crows plenty of problems despite some costly missed opportunities.
Scoring remains Richmond's biggest weakness, with the Tigers averaging just 60.6 points across their past five matches. However, they showed they can find avenues to goal against St Kilda when they scored 11.7 (73) in their Round 10 meeting. Luke Trainor and Harry Armstrong return this week, while the Tigers will be hoping the likes of Jayden Short can provide plenty of drive and clean ball use from defence.
Depleted Saints Looking to Respond
St Kilda's finals hopes took another major hit last weekend as Carlton ran away with a 44-point victory. The Saints lost Wanganeen-Milera to a hamstring injury inside the opening 10 minutes and Mason Wood was also ruled out during the game, leaving them undermanned as the Blues took control. Wanganeen-Milera and Wood will both miss this week, while Liam Ryan has also been managed.
The absence of Wanganeen-Milera creates opportunities elsewhere, particularly through the midfield. Max Hall was superb after taking on greater responsibility against Carlton, finishing with 30 disposals, 10 clearances and two goals, while Bradley Hill collected 31 touches. Hugo Garcia should also receive an increased role around the contest as the Saints attempt to cover the huge hole left by their star midfielder.
Match Prediction and Best Bet
Richmond has been the lowest-scoring side in the AFL this season, but its performances have improved in recent weeks and this matchup has already produced plenty of points once in 2026. When these sides met in Round 10, St Kilda won 109-73, with the teams combining for 182 points.
The Saints should again generate plenty of opportunities against a Richmond side conceding 94.8 points per game across its past five matches, but the Tigers are capable of contributing enough themselves to push this beyond the total. With Richmond showing more attacking intent and St Kilda missing some important pieces defensively, the over looks the better play.
Over 166.5 Total
$1.91 (1 Unit)
Richmond vs St Kilda Prop Bet
Hugo Garcia's numbers dipped slightly following Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera's return to a more prominent midfield role, but that should change again this weekend. With Wanganeen-Milera sidelined, Garcia should receive more opportunities around stoppages and spend significantly more time as a genuine inside midfielder. Against a young Richmond on-ball unit, $2.05 for 25+ disposals looks a nice price for Garcia to capitalise on the increased responsibility.
Garcia 25+ Disposals
$2.05
Richmond vs St Kilda Same Game Multi
Higo Garcia 20+ Disposals | Jayden Short 20+ Disposals | Max Hall 1+ Goal
Hugo Garcia gets a more conservative 20+ disposal line for the multi and should benefit from Wanganeen-Milera's absence through the midfield. Jayden Short remains one of Richmond's primary distributors and should see enough football across half-back to reach 20 touches, particularly if St Kilda controls territory for long periods. Max Hall rounds things out for a goal after booting two against Carlton last week and recording multiple goals in three of his past four matches.
Richmond vs St Kilda Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Saturday 15 August
Time: 12.35pm AEST
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Odds: Richmond ($3.44) vs St Kilda ($1.32)
Line: 20.5
Points: 166.5
Where to Watch Richmond vs St Kilda
You can watch the Tigers vs Saints live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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