Sunday night in AFL Round 13 will see two old rivals lock horns with Essendon taking on Carlton at the MCG. The Blues are 3-0 under caretaker coach Josh Fraser and have been installed as the 5-goal favourites to add another win to the tally.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Bombers vs Blues below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Essendon vs Carlton Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 13
More Pain for the Bombers
Essendon enters this Sunday night clash at the MCG anchored to the bottom of the ladder with a 1–11 record, marking one of the club's most difficult periods in recent history. Following the departure of Brad Scott, interim coach Dean Solomon has been tasked with steadying a side currently conceding an average of over 107 points per game. For the remainder of the season, Solomon’s focus remains on establishing a resilient, player-led culture and improving defensive discipline. The return of experienced figures such as Sam Durham and Mason Redman provides a necessary boost to the side’s structure as they look to find stability under new leadership.
Are the Blues Back in Business?
Carlton currently sits 14th on the ladder with a 4–8 record, showing signs of renewed cohesion under interim coach Josh Fraser. Since stepping into the role, Fraser has guided the Blues to an impressive run of form, including victories over the Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, and Geelong. The midfield remains the team's engine room, driven by the elite contested work of Patrick Cripps, who was the hero against the Cats last week with a big mark and goal in the dying stages. With the midfield beginning to dominate the clearance count, the Blues are finding a more consistent rhythm and are a dangerous opponent for any team right now.
Recent H2H History
Head-to-head history heavily favours the Blues, who have maintained a stranglehold on this rivarly. Carlton secured victory in both meetings last season, including a tight 8-point win in the corresponding King's Birthday Eve fixture and a comprehensive 34-point victory in Round 24. In these encounters, Carlton’s ability to win the contested possession battle has been the defining factor, consistently allowing them to control the tempo and territory while restricting Essendon’s ball movement.
Even the Blues are Far Too Good
Carlton enters the contest as clear favourites, backed by a more settled system and a midfield that is currently performing at a higher level than their ladder position suggests. Given the Blues' recent momentum and their proven ability to dominate the centre square, they are well-positioned to exploit Essendon’s defensive vulnerabilities. Expect Carlton to control the clearance counts, create high-percentage scoring opportunities, and maintain their recent dominance over the Bombers by covering the -30.5 point spread with relative comfort.
Carlton -30.5
$1.91 (2 Units)
Essendon vs Carlton Prop Bet
The Bombers midfield is depleted right now with Parish, Caldwell, McGrath, and Sharp all out injured. This of course means former top 5 pick Elijah Tsatas gets his chance as a permanent midfielder which he took advantage of last week with 26 disposals. Tsatas had the highest CBA % of all Bombers mids last week (74%) and that should be the case again on Sunday night. He’s also had 25+ disposals in three of his last four matches.
Elijah Tsatas 25+ Disposals
$2.10
Essendon vs Carlton Same Game Multi
Carlton to Win: For the reasons mentioned above in our best bet.
Elijah Tsatas 25+ Disposals: For the reasons mentioned above in our prop bet.
Jagga Smith 25+ Disposals: Smith has been back in the midfield under Fraser and has delivered with 25+ disposals in all three matches since he took over.
Essendon vs Carlton Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Sunday 7th June
Time: 7:20pm AEST
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Odds: Essendon $4.90 vs Carlton $1.18
Line: +30.5
Points: 169.5
Where to Watch Essendon vs Carlton
You can watch the Bombers vs Blues live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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