Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Royal Randwick on Saturday, September 29th!
We’ve got a triple header of Group 1 races, with the Flight Stakes, The Epsom Handicap and The Metropolitan headlining a nine-race card.
The track is currently rated a Good 4 but there are some pretty serious winds predicted, which are likely to affect runners starting from outside barriers the most.
Check out Episode 52 of the Before You Bet Podcast to get Tim's assessment of the Group 1's at Randwick today and the Underwood Stakes at Caulfield tomorrow!
ROYAL RANDWICK RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 6 #2 Miss Fabulass
Best Value: Race 8 #4 Wall Of Fire
RACE 1
Hard to be confident here with a field full of first starters. Plenty of these trialled on the same day at Kensington and the ones I’m most interested out of those trials is a pair of Snowden horses. (4) Catch Me was beaten a nose in her only trial, which was the trial recorded in the quickest time for those in this race. I reckon she had the winner of that trial ((7) Honey Go Lightly) covered and Kerrin McEvoy keeps the ride for today’s race. The concern is the wide barrier, especially if the wind is as bad as they are predicting. (13) Satin Socks also ran 2nd in her trial on that day and although it was run in a slightly slower time, I think she can be competitive at double figure odds with James McDonald keeping the ride. Her relation Satin Slipper won this same race last year. (6) Diddles has won both trials easily at Warwick Farm and gets Jason Collett on board for race day. That’s a very positive jockey booking and she’s drawn well. Something small on 4, 13 and 6.
Value: (13) Satin Socks $11 UBET
RACE 2
The boys’ version of the two-year-old races and much like the girls, plenty of these trialled at Kensington on the same day earlier this month. Not as keen to bet in this race but the one that stands out is (7) Fiery Red, who was just outgunned by the race favourite (6) Exceed The Stars in their trial. Exceed The Stars gets concussion plates on for today’s race which has to be a big concern, while Fiery Red gets the blinkers applied for the first time. That has me in the corner of the GaiBott horse with Tim Clark aboard. (10) Krameric is the Waller/Bowman horse. He won a trial dominantly at the start of the month before a more visually average trial recently. Wouldn’t be too concerned about that with this stable. Any of the Snowden runners could win – the stable took out both of these races last year from memory. The stable’s runners are (1) Autocratic, (11) Lionsgate and (13) Rome here. (14) Vaporizing a smokey.
RACE 3
On form you’d have (1) Gem Song clearly on top here but he has to carry 59kg here, which is at least 2.5kg more than any other runner in the field. He’s a winner of three from four career starts, including an impressive win last weekend where he really hit the line hard despite a chequered passage in the straight. The step up to the mile looks as if it will suit and the stable is absolutely flying. Looks about his right price now given the weight he has to carry on the quick back-up. (4) Madam Rouge is an interesting runner at each way odds. She failed last start after pulling up lame but her first up victory was quite good. The inside gate helps her and she can bounce back here with the light weight. (8) Mickey Blue Eyes brings Melbourne form to Sydney. He saluted at Bendigo first up where he defeated Prince Of Caviar, who has come out of that race and won. The step up to the mile looks to suit Mickey Blue Eyes and with the light weight he’s a good chance.
RACE 4
Really looks a race in two on paper between (9) Ace High and (10) Egg Tart. Both come out of the G1 George Main Stakes behind Winx, where Ace High finished 4th and Egg Tart was ahead of him in 3rd. Ace High comes into this fourth up and after two runs at the mile he steps up to his pet distance of 2000m. His only other start at this track and distance was a Group 1 win in the Spring Champion Stakes, and the good draw in barrier 2 should see him very competitive. Egg Tart finished off well behind Winx after a luckless run first up in the G2 Tramway Stakes. She steps up to 2000m third up today. Her only other two starts at this distance were both in Group 1 races, where she finished 1st and 2nd, beaten a nose. Barrier 9 will likely see her get right back in the field so she’ll be coming right down the outside. The blowout could be (7) Satono Rasen who hasn’t had any luck at all in two starts this preparation. Gets blinkers applied for the first time today and could be worth having something on at $21.
Value: (7) Satono Rasen $21 TAB
RACE 5
We get a little preview of The Everest here with six of the eight runners holding a slot for the big race in a few weeks. There are a few things to consider in the race which makes it even more intriguing. The favourite (1) Redzel won impressively first up over the 1000m at this track, but was then forced to be scratched a couple of weeks ago with muscle soreness. A mid-prep setback is always a huge query, especially when you’re taking on horses of this quality, but he generally races best fresh and if he’s back to 100%, he’s probably the one they have to beat. The other big query in the race is how (5) In Her Time will go for new trainer Kris Lees, having been transferred from the Ben Smith stable after he was suspended for doping. She trialled well for the new stable recently but it’s hard to know how good she really is. She’s won four from six when first up and has won three from four at the track and distance so if she returns at her best then she’ll be right in contention. (6) Shoals returned over an unsuitable distance behind Nature Strip first up at Moonee Valley. She’s won four of her five starts at the distance, including one at this track, and has a terrific second up record. (2) Trapeze Artist will be much better suited back on firm ground today and not carrying 61kg. His second up record is some concern given he’s had three starts for zero placings.
RACE 6
Looks a race made for (2) Miss Fabulass after her dominant win in the G2 Tea Rose Stakes two weeks ago. She was dynamic in winning that and will only relish the step up to the mile. Drawn well in barrier 3 which should give her a suck run and if she repeats her performance from last start she’ll win this as well. (3) Fiesta and (4) Pretty In Pink filled out the placings behind Miss Fabulass in The Tea Rose and look set to run well again here. At set weights I doubt they can turn the tables, but Pretty In Pink is much better drawn compared to last start. The value could be (6) Futooh at $26. She was sound first up before never really getting a crack at them last start. She won over the mile at her only attempt and looks over the odds.
Value: (6) Futooh $26 Neds
RACE 7
Pretty keen on (7) Unforgotten here on the back of her dominant win in the G2 Chelmsford Stakes at this track and distance last start. Prior to that she was sound upon returning behind Winx in the Winx Stakes, and she looks primed to add her second Group 1 third up today. Drawn ideally, down in the weights and has no problem at the mile. (2) Pierata was enormous in defeat last start after sitting wide without cover throughout the race. That was also after he suffered a minor setback. He should be cherry ripe for today but the query is whether he is as well suited at the mile as the likes of Unforgotten are. He’s another with a favourable draw. (3) D’Argento draws barrier 1 and James McDonald getting down to ride him at 53.5 is a fair hint. (16) Siege Of Quebec beat Pierata last start and must be considered a chance at double figure odds.
RACE 8
Wide-open The Metropolitan here. (1) Auvray looks a good chance at big odds, third up at 2400m after a very good run at Newcastle last start. (2) Big Duke looks set to peak at his fourth run back and gets up to his right sort of distance now. Four of his seven wins have come at 2400m+ and he ran 2nd in this race last year. (4) Wall Of Fire looks to have been deliberately aimed at this race first up. He’s had three trials leading into this, gets James McDonald booked for the ride and also wears the blinkers fresh. He’s been very competitive at these sorts of distances when first up from a break previously so he’s definitely worth considering at $13. (7) Midterm represents the Lloyd Williams stable and they’ve had plenty of success in these Sydney Group 1’s in recent years, including this race last year which was won by Foundry. (10) Brimham Rocks comes off a great run behind the talented Avilius last start and looks the pick of the Waller runners with McEvoy aboard, while stablemate (16) High Bridge is undefeated in Australia and will only continue to improve as he steps up in distance. He’s only won two midweek races though, so this is a big step up in class.
RACE 9
(7) Right Or Wrong has been very good in two starts this prep. First up he motored home behind Isaurian (a horse with good Sydney form) in Melbourne and followed that with a 0.5L defeat to Trekking. Third up today, barrier 1 with Bowman on board. Looks a good each way chance at $6.00. (9) Beau Geste returns as a gelding today and should have won in a very similar race first up last preparation. McEvoy booked for the ride is a good lead. Stablemate (10) Coruscate has won two on the trot and McDonald sticks with him. Steps up from midweek company and does find a fairly deep race so this is another test but the horse is flying. (11) Maximus was terrific first up on the heavy ground and should be just as good, if not better, on firm ground today. (15) Problem Solver returns with the blinkers on today which suggests he’s ready to win first up, as they normally are from this stable.
