Gather Round in the 2026 AFL season gets underway on Thursday night with Adelaide hosting Carlton at a packed-out Adelaide Oval. Both clubs have endured disappointing starts to the season and come into this one with a 1-3 record, making it all the more important to grab the four points.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Crows vs Blues below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Adelaide vs Carlton Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 5
Must Win Game for Adelaide
The Adelaide Crows return to the Adelaide Oval on Thursday night desperate to snap a three-game losing streak. While they opened the season with a strong win over Collingwood, their last three losses have come by a combined total of just 16 points, including a heartbreaker to Fremantle last weekend. There is a growing sense that Matthew Nicks needs to encourage more daring ball movement to actually give his key forwards a look-in, rather than getting bogged down in transition. The Crows made four changes at the selection table this week; veteran defender Rory Laird returns alongside Isaac Cumming and Mitch Hinge to bolster the back six. The axe fell on ruckman Reilly O’Brien who had a disaster performance in his first game of the season last week.
Blues Make Selection Statement
Carlton arrives in South Australia with Michael Voss under immense pressure to save a season that is quickly slipping away. With only one win from four starts, the Blues’ inability to maintain intensity has been glaring, particularly during a string of damaging second-half fadeouts. Voss has opted for a bold strategy to fix a stagnant midfield, dropping last year’s Best and Fairest winner George Hewett in an effort to find a more productive mix. Injuries and suspensions have further complicated matters, with Jacob Weitering and Will Hayward both unavailable. Nick Haynes and Zac Williams will come back into the side this week and will provide some composure and experience, but the spotlight remains firmly on a coaching group that needs to find answers fast.
Recent H2H History
The recent head-to-head history makes for grim reading if you’re a Carlton supporter. Adelaide has a massive psychological edge, having won the last four consecutive encounters against the Blues. This streak includes a dominant 60-point thrashing at the Adelaide Oval in Round 8 last season, and a narrow two-point victory at Marvel Stadium the year before. Carlton hasn’t tasted victory in this matchup since 2022 and has a historically poor record in South Australia, having never won a game at the Adelaide Oval since it became the city's primary AFL venue.
What to Expect? Here’s Our Best Bet!
From a betting perspective, the best play looks to be taking Carlton to score under 67.5 points. The Blues have struggled for any real offensive rhythm this season, failing to crack the 86-point mark in any game so far. They now face a grim Thursday night forecast at the Adelaide Oval, with persistent rain and high winds expected to turn the match into a low-scoring scrap. When you combine those conditions with Carlton's depleted line-up and Adelaide’s recent trend of keeping games tight and low-scoring, it becomes very difficult to see the visitors posting a significant total.
Carlton Under 67.5 Points
$1.87 (1 Unit)
Adelaide vs Carlton Prop Bet
Jordan Boyd came in for his first game of the season last week and had 16 disposals. The most promising part of this is that he took a team-high six kickouts (and played on from all of them), so there’s plenty of opportunities for some cheapies as one of the key designated kickers for the Blues in the defensive half. On top of that, the Crows are 6-goal favourites, so you would suspect the ball will be spending large chunks of time in the Blues D50.
Jordan Boyd 15+ Disposals
$2.26
Adelaide vs Carlton Same Game Multi
Ben Keays 15+ Disposals: It’s been a poor start to the season for Keays but he’s still managed to reach the 15-disposal mark in each of his last 3 matches. Should get plenty of looks in the Crows forward line here
Jordan Boyd 15+ Disposals: See reasoning above in our best prop bet.
Matthew Carroll 15+ Disposals: He’s reached the 15-disposal mark in all 3 of his matches this season and remains strong value again this week.
Same Game Odds: $6.50 at Dabble
Adelaide vs Carlton Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Thursday 9th April
Time: 7:40pm AEDT
Location: Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Odds: Adelaide $1.14 vs Carlton $5.80
Line: -34.5
Points: 170.5
Where to Watch Adelaide vs Carlton
You can watch the Crows vs Blues live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Back in our 2026 AFL Tips at Dabble!
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