Super Saturday in Gather Round gets underway with a 12:35pm AEST fixture between North Melbourne and Brisbane at Barossa Park. The Kangaroos (3-1) have the better record so far, but it’s the Lions (2-2) who will start as the red-hot favourites to collect the four points.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Kangaroos vs Lions below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
North Melbourne vs Brisbane Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 5
Encouraging Start for North
North Melbourne will face their biggest challenge of the season so far when they head to Barossa Park for Gather Round this Saturday. The Kangaroos have surprised many with an impressive 3-1 record and are coming off an electric Good Friday victory over Carlton. Senior coach Alastair Clarkson has made two key changes to the lineup, handing a club debut to former Melbourne forward Charlie Spargo and welcoming back key defender Griffin Logue for his 100th game. However, they will need to cover the loss of young star Finn O'Sullivan, who suffered a fractured jaw last week, as they prepare for a massive step up in class.
Lions Hitting Their Straps
The Brisbane Lions arrive in South Australia looking to build momentum after a commanding 54-point victory over Collingwood at the Gabba last weekend. The back-to-back reigning premiers had a slightly rocky start to their title defence but clicked into gear brilliantly in Round 4 to even their win loss ledger. Chris Fagan will be delighted to welcome back some serious firepower for this clash, with Hugh McCluggage expected to return from a calf strain. In addition, star full back Harris Andrews returns from suspension, which provides a massive boost to their defensive structure and makes them an incredibly formidable opponent for the young Kangaroos.
Recent H2H History
Looking at the recent head to head history between these two clubs reveals complete dominance from the Queenslanders, although the most recent encounter offers some hope for the underdogs. Brisbane have not lost to North Melbourne in any of their previous 8 meetings across all venues. However, when these sides last crossed paths in Round 9 of last season at Ninja Stadium in Hobart, they fought out a thrilling 71-71 draw where the lead changed hands multiple times in the final quarter. Prior to that surprise result, the Lions had routinely dispatched the Kangaroos, including a massive 70-point thrashing at Norwood Oval during the Gather Round festival in 2024.
What to Expect? Here’s Our Best Bet!
Backing the Lions to cover the -38.5 spread appears to be the most logical play here. While North Melbourne deserves credit for their positive start to the year, their three victories have come against sides likely to struggle, and this matchup represents a severe reality check. The Lions flexed their premiership muscle last week, and the vital inclusions of Andrews and McCluggage give them an overwhelming advantage across every line. Expect Brisbane to dictate the play from the opening bounce, score heavily from stoppages, and run away with a very comfortable victory that easily clears the 38.5 point handicap.
Brisbane -38.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
North Melbourne vs Brisbane Prop Bet
Logan Morris has hit the ground running in 2026 with 8 goals from his 3 matches (3, 2, 3). He now gets a look at one of the worst backlines in the competition and should be licking his lips. The Lions, now back to almost full strength, will dominate territory and give their forwards plenty of looks all day, and it’s Morris who looms as the most likely to fill his boots.
Logan Morris 4+ Goals
$4.50
North Melbourne vs Brisbane Same Game Multi
Logan Morris 3+ Goals: For the reasons mentioned above in our best prop bet. Just playing it a touch safer in our SGM.
Charlie Cameron 2+ Goals: He’s another one that could be on for a big day. He’d kicked 4, 2, 2 goals this season before going goalless last week. Should bounce back.
Nick Larkey 2+ Goals: Always hits the scoreboard even in big losses. 14 goals from 4 matches so far this year.
Same Game Odds: $5.35 at Dabble
North Melbourne vs Brisbane Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Saturday 11th April
Time: 12:35pm AEDT
Location: Barossa Park, South Australia
Odds: North Melbourne $6.05 vs Brisbane $1.13
Line: +38.5
Points: 192.5
Where to Watch North Melbourne vs Brisbane
You can watch the Kangaroos vs Lions live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Back in our 2026 AFL Tips at Dabble!
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