The second AFL game on Easter Sunday sees the red-hot Western Bulldogs hosting the struggling Bombers. The Bulldogs will be looking to continue their excellent record against Essendon, and move to 4-0 on the season! We bring you our full preview and betting tips for the game below.
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 4
The Yardstick
The Dogs head into Round 4 as the most impressive team in the AFL, with a 3-0 record that features wins over last year’s premiers Brisbane, last year’s minor premiers Adelaide, and finalist GWS. The Bulldogs attacking profile is outstanding, ranking 2nd for points per game (113 points), 1st for score from kick ins, 2nd for scored from defensive half, 3rd for score from stoppages, 3rd for scores from centre bounce, 6th for score from turnover and 7th for scores from forward half. To be top seven in all score sources and score origins is remarkable, and they are a scary prospect coming up against an Essendon defence that has been woeful this season
How does it turn around?
Expectations were low coming into 2026 for Essendon, but an 0-3 start that leads into a difficult stretch of games, it is incredibly difficult to see things improve for the Bombers. Essendon are one of only two winless teams and with games against the Dogs, Dees, Suns, Pies, Lions, Giants and Dockers over the next seven weeks, there’s a very real prospect they are 0-10. Essendon are the second youngest side in the AFL, but have been significantly let down by their experienced players with the likes of Andy McGrath, Darcy Parish, Jye Caldwell, Kyle Langford and Ben McKay struggling for form. If Essendon are any chance to be competitive, they need a major lift from their senior players.
Recent Head to Head History
This matchup has been one of the most one sided in the AFL across the last decade. Since 2015, the Western Bulldogs have won 11 of their 13 games against Essendon, and it’s not just the amount of wins that has been dominant, but the matter in which they have come in. The margins across those eleven games are 93, 91, 41, 32, 49, 42, 104, 21, 30, 40 and 87 points - an average winning margin of 57 points, with four wins in excess of 85 points.
Bulldogs vs Bombers? Here’s our Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Tip
The result is only going one way in this clash and it is going to be ugly, the big challenge for punters is where to find the best value that is realistic. The head to head market is pointless with the Dogs at $1.01, the line at -73.5 is in play, while the total points is tough to be confident given Essendon’s likely issues up forward.
With the Bulldogs winning both of their games against Essendon by over 90 points, the line is where we will look in this clash. The Dogs are the most complete scoring team in the competition, while Essendon are the worst defence in the league, conceding an average of 119 points per game through three games. It’s going to be an annihilation under the roof at Marvel.
Western Bulldogs -73.5
$1.90 ( 1 Unit)
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Prop Bet
The Western Bulldogs skipper had had a hot start to 2026, with performances of 33 and 30 disposals across his last two games. Bontempelli has reached the 30+ disposal mark in 6 of his last 8 games, and recorded 35 disposals in his last game against Essendon.
Marcus Bontempelli 30+ Disposals
$2.10
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Same Game Multi
Marcus Bontempelli 30+ Disposals: As highlighted above, Bont is in red hot form and with the Dogs set to run riot in this game, he should have no trouble finding the footy.
Ed Richards 25+ Disposals: Richards has been a revelation since the beginning of 2025, averaging a career best 25.8 disposals, and has begun 2026 in great form averaging 26 disposals per game. Richards averaged 25 disposals across his two games against Essendon last season.
Sam Darcy 4+ Goals: Darcy dominated proceedings in his one game against Essendon last season, kicking 6 goals. The Bombers defence is not equipped to handle Darcy in one on one matchups, and with the speed of ball the Dogs will get against the Bombers midfield, Darcy should get plenty of looks on goal. Darcy kicked 4+ goals in six of his 15 completed games in 2025 and has already done it once this season.
SGM Odds: $4.25 at Dabble
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday 5th March
Time: 7:20pm AEDT
Location: Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Odds: Western Bulldogs $1.01 vs Essendon $21
Line: Western Bulldogs -73.5
Points: 191.5
Where to Watch Western Bulldogs vs Essendon
You can watch the Bulldogs vs Bombers live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Back in our 2026 AFL Tips at Dabble!
Not familiar with Dabble? Check out our full Dabble review here, or by clicking the banner below.
