The South Australian racing carnival kicks into full gear this weekend with the running of two Group 1's at Morphettville on Saturday!
The Robert Sangster Stakes (now the UBET Classic) and the Schweppes Oaks (Australasian Oaks) headline this weekend's program, with Derby Day next Saturday and Goodwood Day on May 21.
The track at Morphetville is currently rated a Good 4 but there is some fairly heavy showers predicted for Saturday, with 5-15mm of rain predicted, so there's every chance we could see a wet track develop as the day progresses.
Let's take a look at the two Group 1's (there is 16 and 20 runners in each race so we'll keep the comments short):
Schweppes Oaks (Australasian Oaks) 2000m - Group 1
PASADENA GIRL: Nowhere near her best in recent times. Stepping up to 2000m will help her and she is still relatively new to the stable so that could bring improvement.
ARCADIA DREAM: Talented WA filly who won the WATC Derby last start over 2400m. Goes well in wet ground and the drop back to 2000m won't be an issue. Barrier 20 hurts a lot.
BELIEVE: Ran 3rd in the Group 1 Australian Oaks at Randwick last start at huge odds. That kind of form is very good for a race like this. 4 weeks between runs and back to 2000m is a query.
SACRED EYE: Another one that's not at her very best recently and she will hate the wet track if it rains. Blinkers first time but draws wide and hard to see her winning.
FIRST IMPRESSIONS: Actually beat her stablemate Arcadia Dream two starts back in the Group 3 WA Oaks over 2400m. Last start dropped back to 1800m and was well beaten so needs to improve.
SILENT SEDITION: Always had a big opinion of this horse since her debut. Has won 3 and run 2nd once from 4 starts this preparation. Won well at this track last start, step up to 2000m looks ideal and drawn perfectly. Strong chance.
C'EST BEAU LA VIE: Another one that's flying this prep with 3 wins and a 2nd from 5 starts this prep. Run down very late by Silent Sedition last start; she had to work pretty hard during the race so with a more economical run she will be right there.
BENGAL CAT: Back to back wins including a 3 length win over Silent Sedition two starts back. Step up to 2000m is a slight query and she'll have to work hard from barrier 19 to get to the lead. Each way chance.
ASINARA: Racing in harder races in Sydney and Oliver was booked to ride before his suspension. She draws poorly and needs to improve but don't discount her.
COMPRENDE: Racing really well. Has been defeated by C'est Beau La Vie and Silent Sedition in her last two starts and it's a big task to turnaround the margin from last start. Include in exotics.
LOPARTEGA: Dropped back heavily in class last start and recorded a big win over 1600m. Only lightly raced and has showed promise but this is significantly harder.
BELUGA BLUE: Covered about 2 miles in an 1800m race last start so you can put a line through that run. Her run previous to that behind C'est Beau La Vie was encouraging and suggested 2000m would suit. Should improve sharply.
JACQUI'S JOY: Not going anywhere near good enough. Gets the blinkers on for the first time but you could only back her on trust.
ABBIE MARIE: Promising filly that's won both her starts to date. Her win over 1440m at Caulfield last start was impressive when coming from well back and storming home. That suggests she will eat up 2000m. She will have to come from well back through traffic though.
THE GREY FLASH: Worked home okay last start but was simply too far back. Still not going well enough to win this.
RIVERINA BELLA: Still a maiden but ran an absolute blinder last start behind Silent Sedition. That suggested the step up to 2000m will really suit her but I'd prefer to see her in something easier than this.
Summary
Plenty of numbers but I don't think the depth is particularly strong. I'm pretty keen on the chances of Silent Sedition who I've always had a big opinion of. She's flying this prep and draws perfectly here so comes into this with a very strong winning chance. I think the odds are more than acceptable.
Abbie Marie obviously looks to have a big future in the staying ranks. Her win last start was huge and the step up to 2000m should be no issue. This is a big ask at only her third career start, however, and from barrier 3 she may have plenty of traffic to negotiate.
Outside of those two you can include the likes of C'est Beau La Vie, Arcadia Dream, Believe, Bengal Cat and Beluga Blue.
1st SILENT SEDITION
2nd ABBIE MARIE
3rd CEST BEAU LA VIE
4th BELIEVE
UBET Classic (Robert Sangster Stakes) 1200m - Group 1
GRIANTE: Winner of the Group 1 Galaxy during The Championships before finishing midfield in the Sapphire Stakes with 58kg. WFA brings her right into contention here.
MISS PROMISCUITY: Comes into this on the back of two strong wins at Caulfield. In terrific form but the barrier makes her job very tough!
SHEIDEL: Has been racing in great form since joining Hayes & Dabernig in Melbourne. Broke through for a win at Caulfield last start and despite this being much harder, she still must be included.
PRECIOUS GEM: Flying since joining the new stable. Huge run first up when the stable said she was underdone, and backed that up with a big win last start at Caulfield. Draws well and can run a big race here.
WAWAIL: Inconsistent this time in. Won a Group 3 two starts ago but battled in Group 2 company last start, though she did pull up lame. 6 week break coming into this and she does race very well fresh. Place at best.
SULTRY FEELING: Returned this preparation with two strong wins and then finished midfield in Group 2 company last start. Trialed nicely leading into this, not the worst chance.
PITTSBURGH FLYER: Going horribly at her past two starts and draws the car park. Pass.
TYCOON TARA: Comes into this 3rd up after two respectable runs so far this campaign but I still would have liked to have seen more for her to be a genuine winning chance here.
SABATINI: Returned with a good performance behind Miss Promiscuity first up. 6 weeks between runs but she has won 2 from 3 when second up from a spell. Draw is horrible but she's not hopeless.
TUSCAN SLING: Went down as the hot pot here last start after a big betting drift but it would not surprise me to see the Weir "magic" turn that around here. She draws well and could very well win this.
SCARLET BILLOWS: Three good runs so far this prep which culminated in a win last start. This is much tougher than what she beat last start but at her best she can go well.
I LOVE IT: Interesting tactic coming in to this first up. Has won 3 from 6 first up and draws to get a great run but this is tougher than what she faced last prep. Could go well fresh.
MISS SETON SANDS: Won on her Australian debut and then she wasn't fully tested last start at Sandown. Draws well and she's won 5 from 7 over 1200m so I'm not discounting her chances.
VEZALAY: Talented mare on her day with some strong formlines. Comes into this ready to peak at her fourth run back but she draws absolutely horribly.
RUNWAY STAR: Good win first up from a spell and then ran super again last start when 3rd behind Nostradamus. Holds a good 3rd up record and despite this being harder, she can run well again.
PRIVATE SECRETARY: Another one that comes into this first up and he has won 3 from 4 fresh so that could be why. Has a good record but his form is probably a level below this. One to keep an eye on.
BADAWIYA: Really disappointed in the wide draw for this filly. Price says she is working the best out of all his runners this weekend but the wide draw cost her last start and I'm fearful it may do so again. 1600m back to 1200m is interesting. She can't be ruled out.
DON'T DOUBT MAMMA: Hasn't finished outside the top 2 at any of her three starts this prep. Dropped back to 1100m when winning last start and the step up to 1200m will suit her. Wide draw doesn't help but she's an each way chance.
PETITS FILOUS: Went horribly in Sydney last start in the Arrowfield Sprint when she didn't handle that way of going at all. Back to the 'Melbourne' way of going here and if you rate off previous form she is a very strong chance.
TEMPT ME NOT: Comes into this off a strong win in Group 3 company in Sydney. Won't mind a bit of rain but she's another that has a horror draw. Not the worst.
Summary
Petits Filous cost me last start but I'm prepared to give her another chance back to her preferred direction of running. If we rate her off her previous form she rates very highly,and with the decent draw her chances are only enhanced. If any rain comes that won't bother her and with plenty of her main rivals drawn out wide she definitely looks hard to beat.
Griante won a Group 1 two starts back and did a reasonable job with the big weight last start. With the good draw she can definitely run a big race here. Precious Gem has come back in great order for her new stable and she's another advantaged by a good draw. She looks a big price at 25/1.
Don't Doubt Mamma, Badawiya, Sabatini and Miss Promiscuity all draw wide but have claims, while it will be worth including Sheidel and Tuscan Sling.
1st PETITS FILOUS
2nd GRIANTE
3rd PRECIOUS GEM
4th TUSCAN SLING
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
