We head to Paris for the second grand slam of the calendar year, the French Open. Ace is here to take a look at the draw and he has found some value in the outright markets. Check out our selections below and good luck to everyone following along!
Men's French Open Betting Tips
Quarter 1
Jannik Sinner is back from his drug ban, and his edge on the competition was so great that he didn’t even have to relinquish his number 1 ranking. He has played one tournament since his return, the Rome Masters 1000, where he lost to Carlos Alcaraz in the final. This isn’t necessarily the easiest draw for Sinner. While he should be too strong for Arthur Rinderknech and the French crowd first up, things may become a little trickier come a potential round 3 against Jiri Lehecka or Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, a fourth round with Arthur Fils or Andrey Rublev, and a quarter final against the likes of Jack Draper and Alex De Minaur. Sinner is incredibly short in the quarters markets, however the player that probably stands out in terms of overall form and ceiling is Davidovich Fokina.
Quarter 2
There was a massive opportunity for Alexander Zverev to reach world number 1 off the back of the Sinner suspension. Unfortunately, his tennis seems to have taken a three-month break as well. It’s hard to make a case for Zverev here based on his form since well, the Australian Open, however I do think the best of 5 set format does suit him a little more than the best of 3. He can go for hours, potentially find his way into a decent rhythm in week one and become more of a threat in week two. This isn’t the strongest quarter, so there is potential for the German to find some form.
So who stands out from the rest of the quarter? The obvious name is Novak Djokovic. Although 2025 hasn’t been kind to him, we did see some impressive tennis from him in Paris last year at Roland Garros and the Olympics, so he always commands respect. Regarding overall form and clay form, the other name that appeals is Francisco Cerundolo.
Quarter 3
After a sustained run of good form, it is Lorenzo Musetti who finds his way into this quarter as a top 8 seed. His draw looks reasonable, and looking at likely match-ups it does feel as though the potential fourth round match-up between the Italian and Holger Rune may go a long way to deciding this section of the draw. Rune has a little more inconsistency in his game, which means he is more likely to come unstuck unexpectedly in week 1, so Musetti is certainly one to watch.
The bottom half of this quarter may be the most wide-open section in the draw. The seeds are Frances Tiafoe, Sebastian Korda, Alex Michelsen and Taylor Fritz, with none of them displaying impressive clay form at the moment. In terms of experience and past results on clay, unfortunately there isn’t a standout in this spot. I wish Hamad Medjedovic had some better form coming in here given the high ceiling in his game.
Quarter 4
If you are interested in betting on someone who isn’t named Carlos Alcaraz, you’d want their name to be about as far away from the bottom of the section as possible. Alcaraz was back to his best in Rome, claiming the Masters 1000 title there, however he does still have the ability to check in and out of matches. That does show just how good he is compared to the majority of the field. A fourth round against Tsitsipas and a quarter final against Casper Ruud is the worst way home for the Spaniard. He should be too good.
Summary
There are a couple of players that stand out for me in the quarters markets. In the first quarter I’ll make a small play on Davidovich Fokina, the second quarter I have a slight preference towards Novak Djokovic, quarter three I’ll look to Lorenzo Musetti (although I am very wary of Holger Rune) and the final quarter I will leave with Carlos Alcaraz an incredibly short favourite. What I will do is take Carlos Alcaraz to go further than Jannik Sinner for the tournament.
Suggested Bets
0.25 units Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Quarter 1 Winner ($26 Ladbrokes)
0.5 units Novak Djokovic Quarter 2 Winner ($3.50 Ladbrokes)
0.5 units Lorenzo Musetti Quarter 3 Winner ($3.40 Bet365)
0.75 units Carlos Alcaraz to go further than Jannik Sinner ($1.57 Bet365 – Who will go the furthest?)
Women's French Open Betting Tips
Quarter 1
Aryna Sabalenka comes into the tournament as the overall favourite. For the most part she has looked solid across the course of the lead-up tournaments, however the second favourite to progress out of the quarter, Qinwen Zheng, was able to defeat her in straight sets in Rome. I don’t think there is any value in the current price on Sabalenka, however I am also not in a position where I am keen to actively oppose her. There is one player that has slightly caught my eye a little further down in the market and she has the ability to surprise at longer odds, and that is Liudmila Samsonova. She can match it with most playing styles and sits in the other half to Sabalenka. When you consider the quarter has Sabalenka, Zheng, Samsonova, Clara Tauson, Peyton Stearns, Dayana Yastremska and Amanda Anisimova, this is an incredibly stacked section.
Quarter 2
This has the potential to be a very fun quarter, but I am not sure it is one where I want to bet into it heavily. Regardless of recent form, you do have to respect the Roland Garros record of Iga Swiatek, however it is still a little hard to be excited by the price that is on offer for her. She is actually going to be the only play for me in this quarter, and I think returning to the court where she has had such great success in the past will give her a lift. She has some stern competition in the section courtesy of Jasmine Paolini coming off a big title win in Rome, and a section that has a lot of players capable of a very high level on their day. Those players include Elena Rybakina, Elina Svitolina, Jelena Ostapenko, Marta Kostyuk, Linda Noskova, Emma Raducanu and even Anastasia Potapova, so outside of Swiatek I think this section is more appealing regarding potential head to head matches rather than the outright markets.
Quarter 3
When it comes to a draw that is friendly for a top seed, I don’t think that Mirra Andreeva could have asked for too much more in terms of a decent path compared to other sections and top seeds. She is a clear favourite, with second favourite Naomi Osaka coming in largely with WTA Challenger form. Karolina Muchova just hasn’t played enough tennis for me to confidently consider in a meaningful way in the outright markets, and from there it’s Jessica Pegula, Paula Badosa, Elise Mertens and Ons Jabeur, who I think are all likely to struggle against Andreeva in her current form. Happy to consider Andreeva and that’s about all here.
Quarter 4
Another player who is probably pretty happy to be in the bottom section is Coco Gauff. Her form has been very solid over the course of the clay season, although the double faults are creeping in at times in some key moments, as we saw in the back end of Madrid and Rome. I think when you take a look at who could be across the net from Gauff in the first week, I don’t see anyone being a decent shot at knocking off the American. At a semi decent level, Gauff is progressing to the final four.
More recently, I’ve been somewhat keen on Beatriz Haddad Maia and her significant short term improvement deserves more respect than what we see here in the market. If she were to sustain her more recent level, she could push her way through to the second week, however happy to see how she starts with what is a tricky first round for her.
Summary
Of the players near the top of the market, I have Iga Swiatek and Mirra Andreeva as the two that are my preference, closely followed by Gauff.
Suggested Bets
0.25 units Liudmilla Samsonova Quarter 1 Winner ($26 Bet365)
1 unit Iga Swiatek Quarter 2 Winner ($2.10 Ladbrokes)
1 unit Mirra Andreeva Quarter 3 Winner ($1.91 Bet365)
1 unit Coco Gauff Quarter 4 Winner ($1.80 Bet365)
