Super Saturday in the AFL for Round 1 is jam-packed with awesome matchups, with genuine contenders playing in all four matches. The last cab off the rank is the Magpies vs Crows at the MCG, which shapes as an intriguing contest that’s very tight in the betting markets.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Magpies vs Crows below. And if you’re keen to back in our tips, consider doing so at Bet365 - one of the biggest and best sportsbooks in the world!
Collingwood vs Adelaide Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 1
Magpies Will Need to Improve Again
The Magpies return to the MCG this Saturday night looking to build on their gritty 12-point Opening Round victory over St Kilda. Despite missing skipper Darcy Moore and veteran Jeremy Howe to calf injuries, Collingwood’s system held firm. Jordan De Goey was important up forward with three goals, while Nick Daicos and Josh Daicos provided their usual drive through the corridor. This weekend carries significant emotional weight as Scott Pendlebury runs out for his 427th game, moving him into outright second place on the all-time VFL/AFL games list ahead of Michael Tuck. The Pies have named an unchanged line-up, meaning Dan McStay will also celebrate his 200th AFL match in front of a massive home crowd.
Can the Crows Contend?
The Crows make their 2026 season debut with a revamped look, naming three club debutants for the trip to Melbourne. Former Swan Lachlan McAndrew will shoulder the ruck duties, supported by Toby Murray who earns his AFL debut alongside brother Nick Murray, while dual premiership Lion Callum Ah Chee bolsters the forward line. Matthew Nicks has received a boost with Riley Thilthorpe and Isaac Cumming both proving their fitness to start, though they remain without the suspended Izak Rankine. Adelaide’s tall timber in Darcy Fogarty and Taylor Walker will be looking to exploit a Collingwood defence that remains undersized in the absence of Moore and Howe.
Recent H2H History
Recent head to head history suggests these two sides are well-matched, having split their encounters in 2025, although the Magpies enjoyed some success in years prior. Last year, the Crows claimed a thrilling three point win at Adelaide Oval in Round 23, but the Magpies exacted revenge when it mattered most, knocking Adelaide out of the finals with a 24 point Qualifying Final victory.
What to Expect? Here’s Our Best Bet
The total match points going over the 172.5 line looks the most likely play. While the 2025 history points to lower scores, the current trends early in the 2026 season suggest a higher scoring shootout is likely, especially considering the weather forecast. The Magpies were involved in a low-scoring clash against the Saints last week, but that was more so a byproduct of Ross Lyon’s coaching tactics, flooding players behind the ball. Both clubs are missing a couple of their best defenders, so I think this can be a game where both forwards lines, who are stacked with top-end talent, get on top.
Over 172.5 Points
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
Collingwood vs Adelaide Prop Bet
Darcy Fogarty’s career has been a bit of a slow burn, but he’s become a solid tall forward for the Crows. As we know, he’s as accurate as there is in front of goal, so he should manage at least two goals in what I expect to be a high-scoring game. On top of that, Fogarty has kicked eight goals in his last four games against Collingwood, and the Pies are without a couple of their key backs this time around.
Darcy Fogarty 2+ Goals
$2.02
Collingwood vs Adelaide Same Game Multi
Darcy Fogarty 2+ Goals: See reasoning above in our best prop bet. Represents great value here.
Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals: Coming off 41 touches last week, Nick looks set for another huge season. Even if he does get more opposition attention, I think he still finds his way to at least 30.
Josh Daicos 30+ Disposals: Doubling down on the Daicos brothers in our SGM. Josh had a huge game himself last week with 36 disposals. He had a huge preseason and should be racking up plenty of touches again here.
Same Game Odds: $6.75 at Bet365
Collingwood vs Adelaide Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Saturday 14th March
Time: 7:35pm AEDT
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Odds: Collingwood $1.73 vs Adelaide $2.12
Line: -4.5
Points: 172.5
Where to Watch Collingwood vs Adelaide
You can watch the Magpies vs Crows clash live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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