AFL Round 1 continues on Friday night with a matchup between Essendon and Hawthorn at the MCG. The Bombers are making their first official appearance of the season, while the Hawks will be aiming to bounce back after last week’s disappointing loss against the Giants.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Bombers vs Hawks below. And if you’re keen to back in our tips, consider doing so at Bet365 - one of the biggest and best sportsbooks in the world!
Essendon vs Hawthorn Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 1
Is Improvement Coming for the Bombers?
The Bombers finally get their campaign underway this Friday night at the MCG and there is plenty of intrigue surrounding the club as they enter a clear rebuilding phase. After a difficult 2025 season that yielded just six wins, the focus has shifted toward blooding young talent. Fans are expected to see several AFL debuts this week, with highly touted prospects like Dyson Sharp and Max Kondogiannis pushing for selection in the final 23-man squad. While there is optimism about the future, the team will unfortunately be without star playmaker Nic Martin, who has been ruled out for the entire 2026 season following a significant knee injury. Jordan Ridley is also expected to miss the opener with a calf complaint, leaving the Essendon defence understaffed against a potent opposition.
Hawks’ False Start
The Hawks arrive at this fixture already under pressure after a disappointing start to their campaign. Hawthorn opened their year last week with a heavy defeat to the Giants, conceding 122 points in a performance that left coach Sam Mitchell demanding a swift response. Adding to their woes, the club has been forced to deal with significant off field distractions this week following the revelation that Dylan Moore and Connor Macdonald spent a night in an American jail during the break. Moore was stripped of his vice captaincy following the trespassing incident, and both players will be desperate to put the focus back on football.
Recent H2H History
When looking at the recent head-to-head history between these two rivals, the ledger is much more even than many might expect. While Hawthorn won the lone meeting last year by 26 points in Round 1, the Bombers have actually won four of the last five encounters between the sides. Most of these recent matches have been high-scoring affairs, with seven of the last eight games going over the total match points line. The MCG setting and the return of a massive crowd will only add to the intensity of a fixture that has historically seen plenty of momentum swings.
What to Expect? Here’s Our Best Bet
The Hawks winning in the 1 to 39 range appears the most likely outcome. The Bombers have a superior midfield on paper and should be able to win the territory battle through the centre of the ground; if they can take their chances going forward, they should be able to hang around and keep the game tight for three quarters. However, the superior class and transition speed of the Hawks should eventually see them break the game open. The Bombers ranked second last for points conceded from turnovers last year and will struggle to stop Hawthorn’s "dash and dare" style coming out of the back half.
Hawthorn By 1-39 Points
$2.35 (1 Unit)
Essendon vs Hawthorn Prop Bet
Archie Roberts finished second in the Bombers best and fairest last season in what was just his second year in the AFL. He finished the season on fire with 33, 27, 28, and 29 disposals in the last four matches. The talk is that Roberts will move into the midfield this year and we saw that in the practice match where he led the team with 29 disposals. I think this will be the best price all year that we get for Roberts to collect 25+ touches.
Archie Roberts 25+ Disposals
$2.12
Essendon vs Hawthorn Same Game Multi
Nick Watson 2+ Goals: Looked electric at times last week and hit the scoreboard. The Bombers aren’t blessed with pace in their defence, so this is another opportunity for the Wizard to fill his boots.
Archie Roberts 25+ Disposals: For the reasons mentioned above in our prop bet. He should be in for a big 2026.
Zak Johnson 15+ Disposals: Showed some promise last year and has had a nice preseason heading into 2026. Found plenty of it in the practice matches and has a nice role.
Same Game Odds: $4.75 at Bet365
Essendon vs Hawthorn Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Friday 13th March
Time: 7:40pm AEDT
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Odds: Essendon $4.40 vs Hawthorn $1.22
Line: -30.5
Points: 186.5
Where to Watch Essendon vs Hawthorn
You can watch the Bombers vs Hawks clash on Channel 7 or live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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