Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, October 13th.
We’re in for an outstanding day of racing with no less than four Group 1’s across the card – the Thousand Guineas, Toorak Handicap, Caulfield Stakes and Caulfield Guineas.
We have 10 races on a Good track with the rail in the True position and we’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below.
CAULFIELD RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 9 #1 The Autumn Sun
Best Value Bet: Race 8 #2 Humidor
RACE 1
Nearly complete guesswork here with a field of two-year-old’s all on debut. I’ll be sticking with the strongest stables here. #1 Ancestry won a jumpout at Flemington and clocked 47.98 for the 800m. Did it pretty comfortably and has been well supported in early betting. From barrier 1 expect him to kick up and lead or box seat at the worst. #2 Lanigera was given a quiet time of things in his Flemington jumpout, where the time for the 800m was 46.35. He led most of it but went to the line under a strong hold as others shaded him on the line. One of those that shaded him was #4 Wedgetail, who was asked for a little bit of an effort to run down the leader. Of the two, I preferred the work of Lanigera. #13 Utzon will get plenty of attention for her appearance but she also won a trial at Cranbourne very nicely. The stable were going to scratch her due to the wide barrier but had second thoughts and she’ll take her place here. James McDonald is a strong jockey booking. Leaning torwards Ancestry and Lanigera as the two I’ll be having something small on.
Also backing: #2 Lanigera $6.50 Sportsbet
RACE 2
Very open race with a few at long odds and seemingly out of form that could easily pop up and win. #1 Comicas is perhaps the most interesting runner, first up in Australia for the Charlie Appleby arm of the Godolphin stable. He won a Group 3 in Dubai three starts ago and has been Group 1 placed in the past. He’s first up from a decent spell and has 60kg to carry but he’s been gelded in his time off and you always have to greatly respect the Appleby runners when they appear in Australia. #2 Duca Valentinois was beaten 7L in the Epsom Handicap by Hartnell last start but it took him until the very end of his last campaign to really hit his best form, so fourth up today he might improve out of sight. He’s had three runs in Listed grade before for two wins and a 2nd placing, but this is his first time going the Melbourne way. #3 Grande Rosso hasn’t shown a huge amount in two runs back this prep but he ran similarly in his first two runs last prep before winning third up in this grade. #4 Fastnet Tempest finished last in the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes last start but his first up run was sound and he’s undefeated from three third up runs. Craig Williams rode him to victory over this track and distance third up last prep and he jumps back on today. #8 Sircconi was beaten a nose by Cliff’s Edge first up and gets blinkers on for the first time today. He’s won two of his three second up runs, has a good record at the track and distance and draws well in barrier 4. #9 Iconoclasm would be competitive on best form and after two runs at the 1200m, now steps up to 1400m where he is undefeated from two starts at the distance. #10 Fierce Impact was huge first up and certainly not out of it. Something small on #2, #3 and #4.
Also backing: #2 Duca Valentinois / #3 Grande Rosso
RACE 3
#1 Sunlight is the class filly in the race with the form on the board and therefore shoulders top weight here. She’s had an eight week break since winning the Quezette Stakes but has won a trial in dominant fashion since then. From barrier 12 she’ll likely roll forward and prove hard to beat if she brings her best form. #3 Meryl was a solid winner at Moonee Valley last start in the G3 Scarborough Stakes. She drew barrier 9 on that occasion and she draws the same today so expect similar tactics. If she gets a soft enough run on speed she can once again be very competitive. #4 Assertive Play is one at good odds in the race. She was luckless first up and then had no hope from where she was last start. She drew wide on that occasion and was forced to go a long way back. Drawn much better today and Williams sticks with her. If she can settle closer to the speed she can bounce back at nearly double figure odds. #10 Golden Halo gets blinkers first time, which often has great effect on Weir runners. Keep her safe. #12 Bleu Roche was enormous coming from last in the field last start at Flemington. That was only a BM64 so she jumps very sharply in grade for this but she looks a filly capable of measuring up in race such as this in the future.
Value: #4 Assertive Play $9.00 Topbetta
RACE 4
Pretty keen on #2 Cool Passion each way at $9.00 here. She ran terrific first up with 61.5kg on her back, beaten only 2.2L into 4th behind Grey Shadow. She drops down to 57kg today and will have taken plenty of improvement from that first up run. She’s never missed a place second up, has five wins from seven starts at the distance, won her only previous start at the track and distance and should get a soft run from barrier 1. Stable rider Luke Currie takes over from the 3kg apprentice and on her best form, Cool Passion would be in this up to her ears. #3 Winter Bride brought her strong Queensland form to Melbourne last start when taking out the G3 How Now Stakes, making it four wins from her past five starts. The barrier is slightly awkward but she overcame a worse draw last start and should get a similar sort of run today. Definite winning chance again. #9 Split Lip looks over the odds at $21. Her first up run was better than it looked. She finished third last but ran a strong final 200m and that was only her first run back from a spell. She won second up last prep and should be hitting the line hard again. #14 Leather’n’lace should be ready to win now third up from a break, while #19 Petrelle steps up very sharply in grade but has been dominant in her first two races. Short enough at $7.50 though.
RACE 5
Really quite keen on #2 Voodoo Lad here and the $3.80 looks a pretty decent price. He’s had seven starts at the track and has never finished outside the top two. He’s had six starts at the distance for five wins and a 2nd and he should probably be undefeated from three starts at the track and distance. Last start he was luckless behind Ball Of Muscle and Brave Smash was back in 3rd in what turned out to be a strong form race. Drawn perfectly and should be very hard to hold out with even luck. #13 Snitty Kitty is the obvious danger. She was terrific first up in the Moir Stakes behind Viddora, beaten just 2.8L after sitting three-wide without cover the entire race. She’s had four starts when second up from a spell and has never finished outside the top two and her record at the track and distance is identical. Drawn much better today in barrier 2. #12 Savanna Amour could be the value at $9.50. She didn’t get a lot of room first up in the Moir. She’s won two from four when second up and has three wins from five starts at the track. Drawn well in barrier 5 and if they go hard up front she’ll be right in the finish. #11 Missrock has an outstanding first up record with four wins from six starts.
#12 Savanna Amour $9.50 Sportsbet
RACE 6
The first of the Group 1’s and we have a very competitive field of fillies assembled for the Thousand Guineas. #5 Smart Melody basically picks herself after a comfortable victory in the Prelude, maintaining her unbeaten record. The big query is whether she’ll run a strong 1600m but she’s drawn the right barrier to allow her to do so and her brilliance might just get her over the line. With that said, I think she’s well and truly found her right price now at $2.75 as this is a deep field. #1 El Dorado Dreaming was sound when 3rd in the Prelude, beaten 2L by Smart Melody. She was only first up on that occasion and her run in the Champagne Stakes over the mile last prep tells you she’ll eat up the 1600m. Drawn well and Lane sticks with her; it’d be no surprise to see her charge over the top. #2 Fiesta was nosed out by Ooohood in the Flight Stakes last start and has had a terrific prep thus far. Drawn to get a soft run which should ensure she fights out the finish again. #3 Seabrook could be the one being overlooked. She was a Group 1 winner of the Champagne Stakes over this distance last prep. Her first up run was sound and she pulled up with the thumps last start after failing in a strong race. Up to the mile third up with the blinkers going on for the first time, so $21 could be big odds. #7 Amphitrite looks the best of the Weir trio, having won each of her three starts this prep. She was dominant over the mile at Flemington last start but the wide barrier makes things hard around the tighter Caulfield circuit.
Value: #3 Seabrook $21 Sportsbet
RACE 7
Competitive race for the Toorak Handicap. #1 Hartnell was a surprising winner of the Epsom Handicap at Randwick last start, where he carried top weight to victory. He’ll have to repeat that effort here as he rises 2kg to 59kg and heads the weights once again. He’s had six starts at Caulfield for two wins and three placings and the good draw allows him the chance to be very competitive once again. #2 Jungle Cat looks over the odds at $11. He won the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes at his first run in Australia and he’s got a terrific second up record with five top-two finishes from as many starts. This is his first time over the mile and the distance is some sort of query but he’s drawn nicely in barrier 4 and I’d be surprised if he wasn’t thereabouts at the finish. #4 Shillelagh has attracted early support on the back of a big run for 4th in the Epsom last start. She only rises half a kilo to 53.5kg and she ran 2nd in G1 company third up last preparation. My query is she’s always a runner that runs home well from the back of the field but it’s rare that she actually wins, so she looks to have found her right price now. #5 Land Of Plenty has drawn terribly in barrier 19, which is a shame because if he drew well he’d be incredibly hard to beat. I still think he’s a huge chance but that draw makes it tough. The positive for him is there looks to be a stack of speed in the race which might string them out and allow him to slot in and get over the top of them late. I’ll be having something on at $6.50. #10 Noire is a smokey. She was good in a strong race first up and then beat Youngstar last start, who has since come out and run 2nd to Winx. She’s got a great third up record and draws well in barrier 2. #12 Cliff’s Edge won well last start which followed a horror show the start prior. He’s capable of going close in a race like this.
Value: #2 Jungle Cat $11 BetEasy
RACE 8
This is probably the race of the Spring so far. #1 Benbatl is the first of three internationals in the race. He’s a dual Group 1 winner with major victories in Dubai and Germany. He’s had two starts at 2000m for two wins and also has a good fresh record with two wins from three starts when first up. I have a slight query over the strength of the Group 1’s that he’s won but he’s obviously an elite horse having won six of his 14 career starts. Barrier 1 will see him take a prominent position – he might even lead – and Pat Cosgrave has flown over for the ride so he must rate as a strong chance. #2 Humidor is the horse I want to be with and I think he’s a great each way bet at $7.50. He won the Memsie second up and the stable probably just eased off him a touch in his subsequent two starts with an eye on having him cherry ripe for the Cox Plate further down the track. He showed last start that he’s building very nicely for that and I think they’ll want him to win this – or at least be very competitive – on his way to facing Winx next start. He’s up to his pet distance of 2000m for the first time this prep and draws ideally in barrier 7. Although his record at Caulfield isn’t great, I think he’ll go very close today. #3 Tosen Basil ran an enormous race behind Homesman last start at just his second Australian outing. Draws very similarly and he won his only previous third up start, but I think Humidor is the stable elect over him. #5 Thecliffsofmoher makes his Australian debut for trainer Aiden O’Brien. Last time he raced he ran 3rd to Roaring Lion, which is elite European G1 form, but the query is whether Thecliffsofmoher is at that level. He’s had nine starts at G1 level for just three minor placings and he’s arguably better with a run under his belt. #6 Homesman doesn’t draw as well as he did last start when winning his maiden G1, but he should be able to slide across to either lead or sit outside Benbatl. I think this is a tougher assignment than what he faced last start though. #7 Blair House missed the start and that ultimately cost him the race on his Australian debut behind Homesman. Once he was clear at the 150m mark he hit the line reasonably well but the race was all over. From barrier 11, he’s likely to get a long way back, but he’s got a good second up record and a good enough record at this distance to be highly competitive. He has a victory over Benbatl in Dubai so isn’t hopeless. #8 Night’s Watch won the Naturalism Stakes at G3 level last start and even pulled up lame. He’s flying but I don’t think he’s quite in the same echelon as the likes of stablemate Humidor. #10 D’Argento finally gets up to what I think is his best distance (2000m) after an odd preparation. He resumed over 1400m, then dropped back to 1300m before stepping up to 1600m. He ran terrific in the Epsom last start when beaten a nose by Hartnell, but now rises in weight to 58kg under weight-for-age conditions. James McDonald keeps the ride on him and although he’s drawn awkward he’s an obvious chance. The best chance for Waller could be the mare #12 Unforgotten though. She is another that is really going to relish the step up to 2000m. She’s been racing over the mile recently but was dominant in winning the Oaks last prep so stretching her out to 2000m should really see her hard to beat here, especially with the good draw. It’s a race where you could easily back five runners but I’ll be backing Humidor strongly each way.
RACE 9
The final G1 on the card and it looks the simplest of the four. #1 The Autumn Sun looks a potential superstar and picks himself after his win in the Golden Rose last start. He’s still only third up this preparation and so long as he handles the Melbourne way of going and the tight Caulfield circuit, he’ll be winning this. #2 Native Soldier will be aiming to give him something to chase. Expect him to roll to the front from barrier 4 and he’ll be trying to pinch a break early in the straight, just as he has done a couple of times recently. #15 Oohood finally broke the maiden tag by taking out the G1 Flight Stakes over the mile in Sydney last start. She’s performed well at this track on three occasions in her first prep, which is something that can’t be said about The Autumn Sun just yet, so she has that box ticked. Drawn well and expected to run a very good race.
RACE 10
Hard race to assess given the presence of a few internationals, who tend to have our measure when it comes to staying races. I’d be having something on a few runners here. #2 Prince Of Arran deserves a nickel at $16. He’s having his first Australian start and comes into it fresh from a 15-week break. He’s placed in four of his five first up runs and has won from 1600m all the way to 3200m so the 2400m first up shouldn’t be too much of an issue. The slight query is his form on turf – he appears to only have one win from 19 starts on turf. #5 Gallic Chieftain was super last start in the JRA Cup at Moonee Valley and he was only second up on that occasion. He’s only placed three times from seven starts when second up but has three wins from five starts when third up so with Lane keeping the ride, I think he’s a good chance at $9.00. #7 Yucatan is the Aiden O’Brien runner. He’s Group 1 placed and has James McDonald on board. He’s yet to win first up and yet to win over this distance and also has a tough draw in barrier 15 but you can never underestimate this stable. #8 Brimham Rocks was beaten a nose in the G1 The Metropolitan last start. He went forward on that occasion so from barrier 14 I assume he will go forward once again today. His form should see him very competitive again. #1 Big Duke returns from Sydney where he was luckless in both runs up there. He’s well placed in a race like this and draws well in barrier 6. It’d be no surprise at all to see him return to form here. Tough race, likely to back Gallic Chieftain, Prince Of Arran and possibly Big Duke. Monitoring the market on all the internationals.
Value: #2 Prince Of Arran $16 BetEasy
#5 Gallic Chieftain
$9.00
