Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for the Easter Cup meeting at Caulfield on Saturday, March 31st.
The Group 3 Easter Cup and Group 3 Victoria Handicap headline the nine-race card, which will be on a Good 4 track with the rail in the 6m position.
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below. Don't miss out on listening to Episode 28 of the Before You Bet Podcast, where Tim previews the action from Caulfield and Rosehill, after one of the all-time punting sob stories to end the day at Ascot on Good Friday!
CAULFIELD RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 7 #5 Steps EW
Best Value: Race 3 #13 Expinsive EW
RACE 1
Two-year-old race to kick things off and won’t be getting heavily involved here. (3) Sunset Watch led all the way at Ballarat last start, winning in good style. Dunn on a leader isn’t ideal but with the rail out 6m, it will be an advantageous position to be in. (2) Sanglier went back to Sydney to break its maiden at Wyong last start after finishing midfield in a decent two-year-old race first up. He was competitive with the likes of Long Leaf and Oohood last prep so on his best form he’d be in this. (6) Sizzlesun was fairly good on debut at Moonee Valley and wasn’t disgraced in Adelaide last start. Awkward draw and will get back but will hit the line hard. (7) Tank Attack could be the value on debut. Trialled well behind (8) Yulong Pluto.
TIP: (3) Sunset Watch
RACE 2
This is a competitive little race with a bit of depth. Going to take a punt on a couple at good odds. (4) Our Gladiator is two from two this prep, including a dominant win at Moonee Valley last start when absolutely truckloaded in betting. Can go forward and with Steph Thornton’s claim, carries only 52.5kg. Has to step up to Open class mares grade here but is flying this prep and looks a chance once again at $6.50. Another mare in form is (7) Scuzi, who has won her past three starts. She’s made her way through the grades, all the way from BM58 grade. Her win at Moonee Valley last start was electric, bursting along the rails and winning emphatically. She has carried big weights in all three of her wins so the 54kg today is a nice change. Draws well and although this is a lot tougher than her past few, she looks to be flying and is worth having something on again at $7.50. (2) Hear The Chant was in the worst part of the track last start and the form has been franked with Quilista then going on to win in Sydney. (3) Crystal Fountain resumes from a spell. She took a trip West at the end of last prep but failed. At her best, she’d likely win this. Her fresh record is very good with two wins and a 0.2L 3rd placing from three starts. She gets blinkers back on today and a win wouldn’t surprise.
TIP: (4) Our Gladiator / (7) Scuzi EW
RACE 3
Deep race. (6) Sabotage won nicely over 1200m at Moonee Valley last start, and although he’s never won from four starts at 1400m, he has gone close over 1300m so I’m prepared to give him another chance here. His barrier is no good but he gets Ben Melham on board once again and is in good form. (13) Expinsive looks big odds at $19. Enver Jusufovic is absolutely flying at the minute and he’s had two runners at Caulfield this season for two 2nd placings. This mare is in form, draws softly and comes through some decent form races. (10) Chippenham draws perfectly in barrier 5 and gets a 3kg claim with Tahlia Hope aboard. Won over this track and distance just three starts ago and maps to go close today. I have no idea what they were thinking dropping (2) Runson back to 955m last start but he jumps straight back up to 1400m today where he is much better suited. (1) Amadeus comes through some strong races and has a good record at this distance. Draws poorly but won’t be far away. (17) Simply Splashing and (18) Electric Charlie have the ability to cause a boilover. Taking on (16) Linguist, who may be one of the best horses in the race but is vulnerable first up from a spell.
TIP: (6) Sabotage / (13) Expinsive EW
RACE 4
Keen to bet here. (6) Tarcoola Spirit was a good run behind the talented Demerara down the Flemington straight last start and comes into this third up from a spell. Maps well from barrier 7 and gets Ben Melham on board today. Melham has a 30% strike rate for Jason Warren this season. Think $9 is a good price. (1) Blondie will speed across to try and lead. She’s first up here and has won both first up runs prior to today. She actually beat Tarcoola Spirit last prep when leading all the way to win at the Valley. Looks a chance at $10. (7) Doves Cry is a talented type with two wins from three starts. Maps awkwardly from the gate today which is the main reason I can’t have her on top but if she gets any cover at all I suspect she’ll go close. (4) Ploverset and (9) Moet Rose other chances in a wide-open race.
TIP: (6) Tarcoola Spirit EW / (1) Blondie EW
RACE 5
This is a lottery. (1) Wolfendale draws barrier 20 here which really dents his chances but he’s finished top two in five of his six races so far and DK Weir just keeps these horses turning up and running well. He ran 2nd in the Tasmanian Derby last start and comes back to Melbourne after 50 days off. It’s going to take some ride from Ethan Brown if he’s to win but double figure odds for a Weir horse in form is appealing. (18) Heir To The Throne is still a maiden but is putting the writing on the wall. First up he flashed home over 1400m to be beaten a nose by the favourite (3) All Hard Wood, and then ran 2nd again over 1800m when first up from a 55-day break at Geelong last start. He maps very well from barrier 8 and gets his chance to break through today at $11. Henry Dwyer gave hm a very good push on radio this morning. All Hard Wood represents an ominous combination of Laming/Melham and will go close here but once again, will need luck and a good ride from barrier 13. (2) Indernile and (6) Creedence others with claims but the chances don’t end there.
TIP: (1) Wolfendale EW / (18) Heir To The Throne EW
RACE 6
Another race that could go a number of ways. (8) Top Of The Range is flying and was a moral beat last start at Flemington. Draws awkwardly but gets a big jockey change with Melham taking over. Will be ridden quiet from the barrier and should be motoring home. (12) Savatag comes across from Adelaide. He’s won his past four races – two back in New Zealand and two in Adelaide. Will Clarken, his trainer, has had two runners at Caulfield this season and both were winners, so he doesn’t waste his time bringing horses over that can’t win. He’s drawn beautifully in barrier 3 and it’s worth noting Todd Pannell, his jockey, also makes the trip across to ride him. Looks a big chance at $9. (7) Portman was arguably also a moral beat in the same race as Top Of The Range last start at Flemington. His preparation looks very underwhelming on paper but both his second up and third up runs have been complete pen jobs, so he can certainly win this with even luck. The two Weir stayers, (2) Yogi and (9) Chequered Flag deserve respect, as does Chris Waller’s (3) Quick Defence and the Linsday Park-trained (11) Pow Wow.
TIP: (8) Top Of The Range / (12) Savatag EW
RACE 7
Spewing that (1) Homesman has been scratched here because I thought he was a moral. But with his scratching, I think that opens the door for one of his stablemates to win here. They entered three in the race and scratched the best of those chances, but I don’t think they would have if one of the others couldn’t win. It’s interesting to note that Melham was due to ride Homesman but no jockey has been declared for (3) Midterm. It’s an easy assumption to make that Melham will just pick up the ride on that horse now that Homesman is scratched, and with Andrew Mallyon already pre-booked on (5) Steps, that tells me that Midterm is the stable elect. He makes his Australian debut here and has been gelded in his time off. He has a good first up record and a good record at this track, and as we’ve seen over the past couple of months, the stable generally have these horses ready to win first up. The scratching of Homesman could purely be to compress the weights to favour Midterm. I think he’s a great chance here and I’d be surprised if he didn’t give this a big shake at $6.50. That’s a great each way price for mine. The stablemate (5) Steps can go well too at $6.50 with his stablemates scatched. Lloyd Williams has said that he will lead this field, and he's a lot fresher than what he was in Europe. With that tactics announcement in mind, I'm keen to have something on at the $7.50. (4) Odeon is the favourite here and seems well and truly short enough at $3.30, though he's a much better chance with Midterm scratched. He ran second last last start and wasn’t exactly fantastic first up either. I understand he was only 2L off a very good horse in Humidor last start and third up at 2000m looks to suit, but I won’t be backing him. (9) Golden Mane looks an each way moral at $8/$2.50 post-scratchings. The horse has had seven starts at this track and distance and has never missed a place. Last start he ran 3rd behind Homesman (who I think would have won this) and Almandin (who should have won a G1 last start and can hopefully win a G1 in Sydney today). Draws perfectly in barrier 4 and looks a nailed on place hope. I think Steps is the best winning chance in the race, but I wouldn’t talk you out of a big place bet on Golden Mane either.
TIP: (3) Steps / (9) Golden Mane EW
RACE 8
Another race with a stack of chances. Sticking with (6) Theanswermyfriend who ran a huge race first up at Flemington when heavily supported. His second up record is far superior to his first up record and with that 1400m run under his belt, I think he’ll be much better suited to today’s race, especially with the good draw at Caulfield. He is a deserved favourite at $4.20. His biggest danger could be (8) Ken’s Dream but he’s got an awkward barrier to contend with. He was only beaten 3L in the G1 Newmarket Handicap last start and drops heavily in class here. Darren Weir listed this as his best each way bet of the day and was pretty bullish. (15) Steel Frost is another with a poor barrier but he’s got a terrific second up record and is undefeated at this track and distance. As mentioned, his trainer has had two runners at Caulfield this season for two winners (both of which were this horse, I believe). Deserves respect. (7) Cannyescent, (10) Widgee Turf, (13) Glenall and (17) Violate all have claims, while the absolute blowout could be (5) Turnitaround first up from a spell at $51. Wide quaddie leg!
TIP: (6) Theanswermyfriend / (8) Ken’s Dream EW
RACE 9
Tough race with some fancies having drawn out. (1) Milwaukee and (12) Handsome Thief ran the quinella at Flemington last start and I’m tipping the Weir horse to turn the tables today. He’s drawn poorly but he’s been gelded since last start and gets senior rider Damian Lane back on board today. If he can slot in, he’ll be motoring home late on. Milwaukee got the better of him at Flemington, but this is a totally different ball game for apprentice Jack Martin today. Today he’s drawn awkwardly on a tight-turning track, whereas last start he just had to sit and steer in a 1200m straight race. I’d much rather be on Damian Lane in today’s situation. Weir’s other horse, (6) Star Stealer could be the danger and the value at $7.50. He’s drawn barrier 1 for Ethan Brown and will likely be right in the box seat. If he gets luck at the crucial time in the straight, he could well win this with the more economical run. (10) Pick Me Up is an interesting runner here for Sydney trainer Tim Martin. He rarely brings them to Melbourne. The horse has a decent enough first up record and draws well so can be competitive.
TIP: (12) Handsome Thief / (6) Star Stealer EW
QUADDIE
2, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12
3, 5, 8
6, 8, 10, 13, 15, 17
1, 6, 12
$100 = 30.86%
