Two desperate teams will kick off a Sunday afternoon triple header in round 11, as the Broncos look to secure their first win since round 8 when they host the Dragons, losers of three straight. The Broncos are heavy favourites, let’s see if they are the value selection though, with our preview below, with odds courtesy of Neds!
Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons
Location: Suncorp Stadium – Brisbane
Date: Sunday, 18th May
Time: 2:00pm AEST
Odds: Broncos ($1.30) vs Dragons ($3.50)
Line: Broncos (-11.5)
Points: 51.5
Match Preview
The Broncos come in having lost four of their past five games, and currently are at the bottom of the top 8. Another loss here could see the Broncos outside the 8, a rapid fall from grace for the pre-season heavyweight. Last Friday night, they were beaten by a Rabbitohs team that trailed 14-0 at halftime. Stats wise, the Broncos should have lapped the Bunnies, but it was a stinging indictment of their form that they couldn’t manage to get the two points.
The Dragons hosted the Warriors last week, and it was a tight battle between the teams. The Warriors led 14-0 after half an hour, and it looked as though the game was over, but the Dragons rallied in the second half, scoring three unanswered tries to lock the scores at 14. An early field goal to Luke Metcalf in the 70th minute proved the difference, as the Dragons slumped to their third straight loss, dropping them into the bottom five.
These teams met once last season, in round 19 at Suncorp Stadium. The Broncos closed 5.5-point favourites, with the total set at 51.5. With both teams minus their Origin stars, the Dragons managed to get the win after a dominant half an hour which saw them score four unanswered tries, winning 30-26. Nothing can be gained from looking at this result though, as both teams are vastly different now.
The Broncos opened 10.5-point favourites for this matchup, and you can still find this number at some sports books, whilst it’s 11.5 at others. There really isn’t much of a difference between the two, so the move shouldn’t really affect your bet here. Whilst my numbers are pretty much identical for the spread here, I can’t help but go back to the well with the Broncos. It won’t be a huge play, but the Broncos have shown they can blow teams off the park, and with a sunny afternoon expected, the Broncos could put 50 on the Dragons here.
Looking at the total, and it opened 50.5, where it remains. I have a much lower total (47.5), however a Sunday afternoon in Brisbane well and truly makes up the 3-point margin here. Pass on the total.
Broncos (-11.5)
$1.92 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Leg 1: Broncos (13+) – See above, this could get ugly for the Dragons.
Leg 2: J Arthars (1+ try) – The Dragons right edge has leaked all season, and now they get to take on one of the most prolific left edges in the game. Arthars has 10 tries in 10 games, get on him.
Leg 3: T Sloan (1+ try) – 7 tries in 8 games and attacking the weaker left edge of the Broncos. Sloan should get amongst the try scorers this week.
SGM Odds: $6.75 at BoomBet
