Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Warwick Farm on Wednesday, July 8th.
Sydney metro racing is at Warwick Farm this week to compliment the Grafton carnival. The track is currently a soft 6 and the rail is true.
Best Bet: Race 7 (7) Valdostana
Best Value: Race 1 (8) Squanto
Two of the leading chances met here over 1100m last start, with (1) Beyliks starting favourite. It wasn’t Jmac’s best ride, trying to put the horse into the race by going very wide very early and the effort told over the last 100m. He basically finished alongside (8) Squanto who didn’t travel particularly well but picked up very nicely over the final stages and through the line. Up to 1200m on a slightly firmer surface should suit Squanto. The big watch is (9) Centimental who Berry sticks with over Squanto. This filly took on some hot races last preparation and wasn’t far off star 2yo Away Game. The recent trial was good and she’s a big danger. Both debutants in the market have to be respected also but they do strike a fairly hot race on debut. The SP from last start will ensure a good price about Squanto so he’s the one I’ll side with.
Going with the Godolphin horse (5) Celandine who won a recent trial, beating Paprena who won easily at his NSW debut. Celandine’s form from her first preparation was good, starting $4.80 behind Rari on debut and $2.70 against the very handy Opacity, going down by a head. She’s a huge chance to break the maiden today. The favourite (3) Kaptive has to be respected on debut, as does (1) California August who brings a very strong SP profile.
Very tough race. (2) Stormy Rock looks the horse to beat coming off a 4.5L maiden win. The start before that he lost by a nose to a horse called Tickler, who went around in the market behind boom filly Taileur on Saturday. (8) Paprena can win again. After failing as an odds on pop on debut, this filly was transferred to the Widdup stable and won easily at Hawkesbury. She clearly has some talent. On the same day (7) Faraway Jewel ran quicker time and a quicker last 600m over the same distance, so she has obvious claims. (5) Fenech got the job done as favourite at Canberra and can be in it for a long way with Tim Clark on board.
(4) Bentley Magic is racing very well and handles all ground. He draws well for Louise Day. The value could be (3) Gitan who is 4th up. He’s got 2 wins from 4 starts at this stage of the preparation and nearing a win after some close finishes. He’ll probably go back from the wide barrier but if the track is playing fairly he’ll be storming home. (1) Kosciusko beat home Gitan when that horse was 1st up and is coming off a big win at Hawkesbury. It’s hard to get a read on these Sydney tracks but any on pace advantage makes him the horse to beat. (5) Judge Judi probably doesn’t want it too wet but her 2nd up record is outstanding.
(3) Joy And Mirth won easily on heavy ground in a class 1 last start. She draws to sit midfield and have last crack at them. (10) Irish Angel was impressive breaking her maiden at Canterbury, sitting off the fence and peeling out three wide in the straight. The Canterbury fence is worth about 4 lengths recently, so it was an impressive win, but a step up to BM70 isn’t easy. (7) Liara is very lightly raced and can improve but is only coming off a narrow maiden win where she started $26. Next best is (5) Caccini who has been thereabouts in this grade and got a win at Moruya last start.
Tipping (9) Showminder to bounce back here. I don’t think he loved the very heavy ground at Canterbury after racing off the fence, and only plugged home into 3rd. He handles soft ground and was good 1st up. His form from last preparation behind horses like Bandersnatch and Rocha Clock reads very well. (6) Seeingisbelieving finished just behind Showminder last preparation and won 1st up but is winless 2nd up. (3) Travancore is coming out of the stronger races and on a quick backup from Saturday. If he handles the 4 day turnaround, he’s a big chance, but does need another win. Dropping back to 1600m on a slightly firmer surface should held (7) Maui Girl who also comes out of some strong races. (11) Milunka is a chance with the right run as well.
(7) Valdostana does look the horse to beat here. She comes out of some great 3yo races last preparation, running 2nd to Katalin before beating the older Miss Scorcher as favourite before a break. She’ll enjoy the soft ground today and just needs a touch of early luck finding a spot with cover to be too strong here. Outside of the filly (8) In Lighten Me has a great 1st up record and Nash jumps on which suggests the horse is ready to fire. The race really falls away after the two in the market, with (11) Mount Genep perhaps next best coming off an easy class 2 victory.
