AFL Round 3 concludes at the MCG on Sunday afternoon as Carlton and Melbourne go head to head in an important match for both clubs. These two sides have had plenty of close clashes in recent seasons, so we should be in for a thrilling watch!
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Blues vs Demons below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Carlton vs Melbourne Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 3
An underwhelming start
After being pumped by Sydney in Opening Round, Carlton clung on for a four point win against Richmond, in what can best be described as Richmond losing rather than Carlton winning. The Blues came to a complete halt in the second half, kicking just one goal, however were saved by the Tigers inaccurate kicking, as they registered 9.17. The bright spot for Carlton was youngster Jagga Smith, who continued his impressive start to his career, recording 32 disposals. Carlton will have to be much better though against a Melbourne side that showed in Round 1 they have the capability to be a dangerous side.
Back to reality
After an upset win in Round 1, Melbourne were given a harsh reality check by Fremantle in Round 2, going down by 48 points. The game was essentially over at quarter time as the Demons trailed 49-7, and although they fought back in the second quarter, they were blown away in the third as they conceded 7 goals to one for the second time in the match. The Demons nearly broke even at clearances (-3) and inside 50’s (-2), however they were smashed at the coalface, losing contested possessions by 19. This led to Melbourne losing uncontested possessions by 69, as Fremantle controlled proceedings. The biggest concern for Melbourne was their back six, who struggled to defend, with Fremantle converting 51.7% of their inside 50’s into scores.
Recent Head to Head History
Carlton have had the upper hand in this matchup in recent times, winning their last four games against the Demons. However these games have been tight, low scoring affairs over recent times. Four of the last five games between these two sides have been decided by single digit margins, and neither side has registered above 80 points in those five games.
Blues or Demons? Here’s our Carlton vs Melbourne Tip
The trend is your friend and although this game could go either way, it’s a lot more comfortable to predict that this will be a low scoring affair. The last eight games between Carlton and Melbourne have resulted in total points of 148, 153, 144, 116, 105, 153, 162 and 107. Eight games going comfortably under the total points for this match of 177.5. Carlton’s experienced midfield should control the contest, however they’ve consistently shown an inability to turn contest dominance into scores. Although Melbourne showed in Round 1 their capacity to score, their performance last week showed that scoring is much harder for them if they get beaten at the coalface.
Total Points Under 177.5
$1.88 (1.5 Units)
Carlton vs Melbourne Prop Bet
Sam Walsh has had an excellent start to 2026, with back to back 30+ disposal games to start his campaign. Walsh has recorded 34 disposals in each of his last two games against Melbourne, and is averaging 29.4 disposals across his last five games against the Demons.
Sam Walsh 30+ Disposals
$2.05
Carlton vs Melbourne Same Game Multi
Sam Walsh 30+ Disposals: As highlighted above, Walsh is 2/2 on 30+ disposals this season and has recorded 30+ in his last two games against Melbourne. The former number pick is thriving under the new rules that benefit elite runners.
Jagga Smith 25+ Disposals: Similar to Walsh, Jagga Smith has had a great start to his career and fits perfectly in the modern game with his running ability. Smith has recorded 27 and 32 disposals in his first two games, and should get to 25 touches comfortably.
Max Gawn 20+ Disposals: The greatest ruckman in the history of the game continues to perform at a high level week in, week out. Gawn has recorded 23 and 22 disposals this season, and has reached the 20+ mark in five of his last six games.
SGM Odds: $3.90 at Dabble
Carlton vs Melbourne Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday 29th March
Time: 3:15pm AEDT
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Odds: Carlton $1.98 vs Melbourne $1.86
Line: Melbourne -1.5
Points: 177.5
Where to Watch Carlton vs Melbourne
You can watch the Blues vs Demons clash on Channel 7 or live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Back in our 2026 AFL Tips at Dabble!
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