Two of the league’s most disappointing clubs of the past decade come together in the Saturday night fixture in AFL Round 3, with Essendon and North Melbourne facing off at Marvel Stadium. It’s a fantastic chance for these struggling sides to secure a rare win, but who can take advantage of the opportunity?
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Bombers vs North below. And if you’re keen to back in our tips, consider doing so at Bet365 - one of the biggest and best sportsbooks in the world!
Essendon vs North Melbourne Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 3
Bombers Yet to Show Any Fight
The Bombers are reeling after back to back 10 goal thrashings to start the season, falling heavily to both the Hawks and the Power. The loss against Port Adelaide was particularly concerning given they are a side many expected to finish near the bottom of the ladder alongside Essendon. Perhaps most alarming for the Dons was a historically poor pressure rating, one of the lowest recorded in the last decade, suggesting a significant lack of competitive effort. While Nate Caddy provided a rare shining light with 4 goals, Brad Scott will be demanding a fierce response from his players to restore some pride.
Missed Opportunity for the Roos
North Melbourne arrives with a mix of optimism and frustration. They kicked off their campaign with a fantastic seven goal win against the Power in Round 1, a result that brought plenty of hope to a fan base that has endured a nightmare run over the better part of a decade. However, the Roos missed a massive opportunity to go 2-0 last week, coughing up a five goal lead to lose to the Eagles, a team that managed only a single victory in the entire 2025 season. Despite the collapse, Nick Larkey remains in scintillating form, booting six goals to take his season tally to 10 from just two outings.
Recent H2H History
The recent head to head history between these two rivals is remarkably one sided. Amazingly, the Bombers have won the last 12 consecutive games against North Melbourne, with the Kangaroos' last taste of victory in this matchup dating all the way back to 2016. Recent encounters have been far more competitive than that streak suggests, however, including last year’s meeting where the Bombers only just scraped home by three points. North will be acutely aware that they have rarely had a better chance to finally break their decade-long hoodoo against the red and black.
Bombers or North? Here’s Our Best Bet
Despite the historical dominance of the Dons, the tip for this clash is the Kangaroos to cover the -13.5 spread. While they have lost the last dozen meetings, the Roos enter as deserving favourites based on the sheer lack of resistance shown by Essendon in the opening two rounds. The Bombers have now lost 15 games in a row dating back to the middle of last season and are currently grappling with a significant injury list. With several key players missing, the Bombers look vulnerable against a North Melbourne side that has already shown it can play winning football this year.
North Melbourne -13.5
$1.91 (2 Units)
Essendon vs North Melbourne Prop Bet
It’s been a strong start to the season for the North Melbourne skipper with four goals in Round 1 against the Power and six goals last weekend against the Eagles in a losing effort. He’s been as deadly as ever with just one behind to his name, and a lot of his looks are coming 30m or less to goal. Now Larkey gets a look at the worst defence in the competition under the roof at Marvel. I’m expecting another big performance from the star forward on Saturday night.
Nick Larkey 4+ Goals
$2.40
Essendon vs North Melbourne Same Game Multi
Nick Larkey 4+ Goals: For the reasons mentioned above in our prop bet.
Nate Caddy 2+ Goals: Caddy was the shining light for the Bombers last week when kicking 4.3 which included a miss from 3m out directly in front. He will have another favourable matchup against the Roos here.
Luke Davies-Uniacke 25+ Disposals: LDU had 32 touches against the Eagles and looks to be in terrific form to begin the year. The Power mids ran rampant against the Bombers last week, and i expect North’s mids to do the same this week.
Same Game Odds: $4.20 at Bet365
Essendon vs North Melbourne Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Saturday 28th March
Time: 7:35pm AEDT
Location: Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Odds: Essendon $2.62 vs North Melbourne $1.50
Line: -13.5
Points: 189.5
Where to Watch Essendon vs North Melbourne
You can watch the Bombers vs North live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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