Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for the best betting races at Warwick Farm, Ballarat and Ascot on Wednesday, March 7th.
We’ve taken a look at all three cards and selected the races we’re keenest to bet into, and you can find our tips and comments on each of those below.
Best Bet: Warwick Farm R6 #5 Tip Top
Best Value: Warwick Farm R5 #4 Rebel Miss
WARWICK FARM RACING TIPS
RACE 3
Tricky little race, in that I don’t want to back (3) Danzie at the short price, but I also don’t particularly want to take it on. The blinkers go back on and Jason Collett takes over from Blake Shinn, which I think is a positive, and it maps to be much further forward in the run than the main rivals. With that said, I do think (2) Tangmere appeals. The big negative is the wide barrier, which could see it settle last in this field, and with 59kg on its back it may prove too big a task to run down the likes of Danzie. But the step up to 1600m will suit this Frankel colt (he might even need further), as will getting away from Canterbury’s tight turns. At $4.60, I’m willing to have something small on, with Kerrin McEvoy retaining the ride a major positive.
TIP: (2) Tangmere
RACE 5
We have an added spanner in the works here as this is race for apprentices only. As well as that, there looks to be a lot of speed on paper here, and there’s every chance they could overcook it up front. There’s a couple that interest me here at decent odds but there’s many chances in the race. (4) Rebel Miss is a horse that could go on to better races than this and has probably contested harder races in the past. She’s got a good first up record with two wins from three starts and all four of her wins have come over 900m-1050m, so she’s a short-course specialist. Has won her only start over this track and distance and has also won a trial over 800m at this track leading into this. I’m not big on the jockey Patrick Scorse but he should be able to sit behind a hot tempo up front and give this horse every chance of coming over the top late at $7. (3) Postmaster General is another at good odds ($13) that can go close. This horse led all the way to win first up at Hawkesbury by 2L and recorded a fast time in doing so, though Hawkesbury always plays fairly quick. He has a great second up record with a win and two 2nds from three starts, and some of his form around the likes of Dissolute and Launch Code isn’t bad for a race like this. Draws barrier 1 – I doubt he’ll be able to lead but he can box seat and if they overdo it he might sneak through. (2) Brook Magic won very well first up and I’d almost declare her a moral if she didn’t go down to Melbourne last start, when she led at a murderous tempo and failed. My big concern is how much damage that run has done to her. If you were to purely go off her first up run, she’d be very hard to beat here (and still might be). Expect support to come for (7) Isaurian who won his only start by 2.5L back in October at this track. Draws perfectly to sit right behind the speed, and no shock to see him run over the top of them. I just didn’t quite know what to make of the recent trial.
TIP: (4) Rebel Miss / (3) Postmaster General EW
RACE 6
Pretty keen on (5) Tip Top here. He’s run well in every start this preparation, which included a luckless run last start when held up til the 100m mark before flying home to just miss. Apprentice Blaike McDougall has ridden him in all three starts this prep but Tim Clark takes over today, and he’s riding very well at the moment. Barrier 3 ideal, second start over 1400m this prep, looks very hard to beat and one of the better bets of the day. There’s every chance that (2) Drochaid is the best horse in this race, but his last start was over 2400m in the UK back in June last year, so first up in Australia over 1400m is enough for me to take him on. (3) Star Of Monsoon has certainly come back a better horse as a gelding but he’s still a bit of a myth. Barrier 1 and Tye Angland gives him claims, especially coming out of Saturday company, but he’s likely to need luck at some stage of the straight. And does he run 1400m? (7) Vaniloquio looks the value in the race at $14.
TIP: (5) Tip Top
BALLARAT RACING TIPS
RACE 1
Two-year-old races with five of the 10 runners having their first start. Backing both Darren Weir runners here on their home track at Ballarat. Damian Lane takes the ride on (1) Amphitrite, which suggests to me that she’s the stable elect. Lane only has three rides on the whole program, all for Darren Weir, and he wouldn’t be going to Ballarat for three rides if they were legless. Draws reasonably in barrier 6 and locking in the $5.50 as I expect her to start much shorter. (2) Fiera Vista is the other Weir runner in the race – also on debut, with Ben Allen in the saddle. This filly has trialled twice publicly, both back in October, finishing 2nd on both occasions. I thought the second of those was a decent trial, and she’s clearly been put away since then and is now ready to race. Barrier 1, home track, Weir, wouldn’t be letting her go around without something on at $8. (7) Ray’s Dream has jumped out well leading into its debut and the money is already there to suggest it will go well on debut.
TIP: (1) Amphitrite / (2) Fiera Vista EW
RACE 3
Once again with the Weir/Lane runner here in (9) Pelonomena, who steps up to the mile today at her third race start. She improved quite significantly from her first race start to her second race start, and up to the mile with Lane taking over the reigns looks a sign that she’s ready to win. She also draws well today as opposed to her two previous starts where she’s drawn awkwardly. Very happy with $5.50/$1.90 for a decent each way bet. (1) Connery gets the blinkers on for the first time here and has good from at this distance from last preparation behind the likes of Civil Disobedience. I’m a fan of the stable/jockey combination too. Looks the big danger.
TIP: (9) Pelonomena
RACE 5
Interested in (3) Vintage Quartz for the Lindsay Park stable with Fred Kersley booked for the ride. She’s first up here and first up last preparation she won very easily over this distance when she led all the way. She’s drawn well and if she puts up a performance like she did fresh last prep then she’ll take plenty of catching here at $5. (7) Falling Waters looks a logical threat after some solid recent performances behind some nice types, such as Won Ball and Avanti Rose. Looks short enough at $3 though. (9) Powerful Story a chance first up.
TIP: (3) Vintage Quartz
RACE 8
Had this quite clearly between the top two in the market. Ended up with (8) Born To Fight on top after two very promising jumpouts in recent weeks leading into his first up run here. He’s been able to lead in some of his races in the past, but his jumpouts suggest he may take a sit from barrier 5 here. With that said, I don’t think he’ll be too far off the speed even if they do choose not to lead. The stable had a similar type of horse resume from a spell last Friday night at Moonee Valley in the form of Tribal Wisdom, and he was unlucky not to win, so that gives me confidence that this horse will go very close. Has already been $5 into $3.75 and probably starts shorter (maybe even favourite?). (9) Star Search ran terrific last start at Caulfield when stepped up to 1200m at his second start this campaign. Stays at 1200m for this and his lone career win came at this track. He’ll be coming from well off the speed, so may have a few lengths to make up on Born To Fight, but he’s knocking on the door for a win.
TIP: (8) Born To Fight
ASCOT RACING TIPS
RACE 3
Pretty keen to be with (15) Western Magic here. She was pretty ordinary in her debut campaign, but a good trial win at Belmont was followed by an eye-catching performance first up at Bunbury over 1200m, where she settled last and motored home out wide to run 2nd. She’s clearly come back a much better filly this preparation, and the step up to 1500m looks right up her alley. Chris Parnham retains the ride (big plus) and from barrier 6 she may be a few pairs further forward, so if they are able to make ground with the rail out 11m, she looks the best chance in a fairly average field here. More than happy to take $4. (5) Like Him A Bit trialled well before just a fair run on debut, but should appreciate the step up in distance.
TIP: (15) Western Magic
RACE 4
Looks a race in two but I have no interest in taking $1.50 about (1) Spin On Command. The biggest thing in his favour here is that he draws barrier 1 and will lead with Pike in the saddle, while his biggest rival is drawn in barrier 11. That rival is (5) Katusha, who comes off a sound 1400m win at Bunbury, after being unlucky not to win on debut. The step up to 1800m looks no issue – the issue will be barrier 11, and Daniel Staeck’s tactics. She’s settled 5th in both starts so far but drawn barrier 11 of 11 here is some query. Still, I’d rather take $4.20 to find out as opposed to $1.50 for the favourite.
TIP: (5) Katusha
RACE 6
Three that interest me here and I think it’s a good betting race. The favourite (8) Fast As The Wind gets every chance today, second up, up to 1400m, drawn well with Pike on board. With that said, I’ll only be backing her to save my bets on two other horses. (7) Jupiter Rising was sound first up behind King Of Wu in Saturday grade, finishing 4th beaten 1.75L. The horse has never placed first up but has a win and a placing from two starts when second up, and its only career win came at this track and distance. $6 is short enough for a horse with one win from 18 career starts, but I’ll be having something on here. (4) Sebring Spy looks a good price at $9 after a promising start to this preparation. Looks to have come back a different horse this preparation so I’m prepared to ignore its poor form at this track in previous campaigns. Third up and up to 1400m should see him be competitive. Backing all three with equal stakes, so essentially money back if the favourite wins and good results if either of the other two win.
TIP: (7) Jupiter Rising / (4) Sebring Spy EW
RACE 7
It’s rare that we see a lightly-raced Peters/Pike horse at a quote of $4.60 after resuming with a 0.1L defeat first up from a spell at this track three weeks ago. (10) Sally’s Realm steps up to 1400m and Pike takes over from the apprentice, and although she’s drawn barrier 12, I don’t think that’s necessarily the worst thing. If Pike can find his way into a three-wide running line and can be close enough on the turn, I think this filly is a huge chance. My biggest concern would be the fact she’s a three-year-old filly taking on older horses here, but it’s not exactly a crack field.
TIP: (10) Sally’s Realm
