The NRL 2025 decider is here and for the first time in 5 seasons, it won’t feature the Panthers. There is also no Sydney team this season, with the Storm and Broncos eliminating their opponents last week. It has been an exhilarating season to say the least, and this game promises to be another exciting rugby league contest. Before You Bet is here to take a comprehensive look at the match ahead, with the aim of finding you a winner or two to add to your enjoyment.
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Storm vs Broncos Prediction & Betting Tips: NRL Grand Final
Storm Back to their best
With plenty of excuses around to explain a poor performance from the Storm, they returned to their dominating best in their 22-14 victory over the Sharks at home. Despite having key players return, there was still question marks about their fitness. That mattered little once the game started and it was evident that there would be no such issues. All their key players turned up to play and the supporting cast were great also. They controlled possession (53%), had a strong completion rate (87%) and made 8.8m per carry. While not statistically dominant compared to the Sharks, they took the chances that were presented to them. Unfortunately for their opponents here, the Storm still appear as though they are capable of further improving on that performance.
Broncos Gutsy, determined & fit
For the second straight match in the Finals, the Broncos have shown great determination to fight back from a deficit to win a match. This time, they found themselves down 14-nil against a dominant Panthers team. Not panicking, their fitness helped them finish the stronger of the two sides and capture a 16-14 victory. With just 48% possession, they had a better completion rate (86%) and made 8.6m per carry. It was tough going though; they made just 1 line break and missed 41 tackles. Their desire and effort, combined with their opponent’s inability to close out the match, got them over the line. The confidence within this young side is infectious to watch.
Stats that matter
- Despite this game being played at a neutral venue, the Storm still have an advantage. They have a 65% record here compared to the Broncos 45%.
- These two teams have met twice this season, each recording a 13+ victory. In Round 23, the Storm won at home 22-2 while the Broncos returned the favour in Round 27, defeating their opponents 30-14. The average margin of victory in their past 5 matches is 20.4 point with just 1 game decided by fewer that 16 points.
- These two teams average the same total points in attack in 2025 (27ppg). The difference between them comes defensively. The Storm concede just 18ppg compared to the Broncos 21ppg.
The best defence wins
A lot has been made of the extra 2-days the Storm have to prepare for this match. Despite the efforts of coach Maguire to downplay this, you cannot overlook the advantage it will give them. That isn’t to suggest this is why the Storm will win, but it will contribute. Fact is, defence wins competitions and when you compare it, this is the area that the Storm excel most in. Their efforts last week to repel the Sharks was impressive and it was the same in Week 1 against the Bulldogs. The Broncos have a strong attack and their ability in this area to break their opponents down with relentless pressure gives them a chance. Not to mention the fact that they should be a better side with Carrigan returning to the starting team. Expect the Broncos to have their share of opportunities in this match and they will look capable of stealing the result away from their opponents. This Storm team has a whole other level of motivation to win; this could be the first time since the ‘Big 3’ that they are successful. In the end, the Storm should be too strong for their opponents and cover the lower-than-expected line on this match.
Storm -2.5
$1.90 (2 units)
Storm vs Broncos Same Game Multi
Leg 1 = Total points under 40.5 – see below for justification of this.
Leg 2 = Warbrick to score – he was kept quiet last week but has a great record against the Broncos, scoring 5 tries in his past 3 matches against them.
Leg 3 = Staggs to score – he is a man in form with 4 tries from his past 5 matches. The Storm know how to keep him quiet though and will be trying to ensure he doesn’t receive clear air; this means there is some risk involved but it shouldn’t mean you overlook him altogether.
Same Game Multi Odds = $13 at Dabble
Storm vs Broncos Grand Final Prop Bets
First Try Scorer
Since 2019, a player wearing jersey number 4 or 9 have scored first in all Grand Final matches, with the past 2 being hookers. Players in the outside backs (numbers 2-5) have scored first 8 times since 2011, fullbacks have scored twice with 4 forwards (9 – three – and 12) crossing for the first try. For the season, the Storm leading try scorers are Coates (20), Papenhuyzen (15), Katoa (13) and Anderson (11). The Broncos have had Shibasaki (16), Walsh (13), Staggs (12) and Karapani/Arthars (11). With the sweeping plays to either edge, combined with a dangerous kicking game from their halves, the outside backs and edge backrowers are a preferred option for each team.
Storm
Best = Coates $7.50 at Ladbrokes
Value = Grant $23 at Ladbrokes
Broncos
Best = Staggs $13 at Neds
Value = Shibasaki $15 at Neds
Total Match Points
The average total match points in Grand Finals since 2011 is 33. The total points average in the past 5 matches between these two sides is 46.4 but it’s interesting to note that 3 of the 5 matches have been decided by 44 points or less; blowout totals of 66 and 72 have increased the average.
Total Points Under 40.5
$1.90
Grand Final Winning Margin
Just 5 times since 2011 has there been a winning margin of 13+ points, with the average sitting at 10.1. It is highly unlikely to see a blowout in this game. If you like a team to win, you may want to increase the return in your investment by taking them by a 1-12 margin.
Clive Churchill Medal Winner
It is no surprise that the winner of the ‘Man of the Match’ usually comes from a player in the spine. Since 2011, halfbacks have saluted 5 times, fullbacks 3 times and 5/8’s winning twice. Interestingly, when not won by a player in the spine, a back rower (11-13) is the only other position to win, with the other 4 since 2011 awarded to these players. Considering the subjective nature of this award, it might be worth avoiding. If you do want to invest, no more than 0.5-1 units should be used.
Storm
It is no surprise that Munster is the favourite. He was at his dynamic best last week against the Sharks and is the type of player who revels in the big moments; if you have any doubt, go back and watch Origin 3. Grant ($7), Hughes ($8) and Papenhuyzen ($15) are the next best for the team and rightly so given their impact on the game. It’s hard to look anywhere else other than them. For value, the fullback offers great odds for a player who has already won this award once before.
Best = Munster $6 at Neds
Value = Papenhuyzen $15 at Neds
Broncos
It’s been the ‘Reece Walsh Show’ in the headlines of late and it is hard to overlook his impact on the Broncos performance. If the Broncos are to win, he will have a major say on the outcome of this contest. Next best is Haas. He is close behind Walsh in betting markets, but such is his influence on a game, he is deserving of more accolades than he is currently getting, especially considering he is likely to play 80 minutes.
Best = Walsh $7 at Ladbrokes
Value = Haas $7.50 at Ladbrokes
Storm vs Broncos Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday 5th October
Location: Accor Stadium, Sydney
Time: 7:30pm (AEST)
Odds: Storm $1.70 vs Broncos $2.15
Line: -2.5
Points: 40.5
Where to Watch the NRL Grand Final
Watch the Storm vs Broncos match live on Channel 9.
Tail our Storm vs Broncos Tips at Ladbrokes!
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