What an epic Prelim Final we have in store on Sunday afternoon, as the four-time reigning premiers head to Suncorp Stadium looking to make their SIXTH straight Grand Final! Standing in their way are the Brisbane Broncos, who look to get back to the big stage just two years after their heartbreaking loss to the Panthers in the 2023 Grand Final. What a game this should be!
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Broncos vs Panthers Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Preliminary Final
Walsh Continues Impressive Form Again
The Broncos come into this second Prelim Final after a nice week off last week, after defeating the Raiders in Canberra in week 1 of the Finals. History is in their favour, as the last time a team from outside the top 4 made the Grand Final was all the way back in 2017, when the Cowboys made it to the big dance as the 8th ranked team on the ladder. This, coincidentally, is the last time a team that won a qualification final has lost to a team outside the top 8 in the Prelim Final, when the Cowboys defeated the Roosters 29-16 in the Prelim Final in 2017. So it’s all to do for the Panthers this week.
The last time we saw the Broncos they engaged in one of the craziest finals’ matches I can remember against the Raiders. Trailing 28-12 with just 14 minutes remaining, the game looked gone for the Broncos. Enter Reece Walsh, who put on an absolute clinic in the final 14 minutes, as the Broncos ran in three tries and levelled the scoring at 28-apiece on the siren, as the Raiders celebrated the win before being pulled up for a penalty when Zac Hosking clipped Reece Walsh’s leg on a 40+ metre field goal try. We then entered extra time, which in and of itself was crazy enough, as both teams went back and forth, with the Raiders seemingly winning the game yet again, when Fogarty crossed for an awarded try in Golden Point, but the ruling was overturned after the bunker picked up the slightest of touches from Jed Stuart on the bomb. Then, in the 94th minute of this enthralling contest, Ben Hunt slotted a 39-metre field goal to send the Broncos through. Reece Walsh was the star, scoring one and setting up two others, and his play will be absolutely crucial to the Broncos’ chances this week.
Looking at the team lists, and the Broncos will be without Pat Carrigan due to suspension, however they welcome back Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam (bench), whilst Selwyn Cobbo looms on an extended bench, in some positive news for the Broncos.
Cleary Pushing Towards Immortality
What a performance from the Panthers last week, dominating the Bulldogs in front of a massive pro-Bulldogs crowd at Accor Stadium last Sunday afternoon. The Panthers came in heavily favoured, and I was on record stating the market was wrong and the matchup should be close. How wrong could I have been? The Panthers shot out of the gate, scoring two quick tries to jump out to a 12-2 lead, however the Bulldogs bounced back straight away through some Lachlan Galvin and Jacob Preston brilliance down the right. However, the Panthers turned it on in style before halftime, scoring four straight converted tries in 17 minutes to lead 36-8 at the break, effectively ending the game with scores of Bulldogs supporters seen heading for the exits. The Panthers played their cards a little closer to the chest in the second half, but easily won 46-26 to make their sixth straight Prelim Final. It wasn’t all roses for the Panthers, with their left edge defence looking particularly vulnerable throughout the game, and it’s an area the Broncos will look to exploit on Sunday through the likes of Walsh, Reynolds, and Staggs.
The two wingers from the Panthers were immense last week, with To’o running for 257 metres, scoring two tries, breaking the line twice, setting up a try and busting 11 tackles, whilst Paul Alamoti continued his finals’ form, scoring a hattrick against his former team whilst breaking the line five times, setting up a try, busting 9 tackles, and running for 242 metres. And once again Nathan Cleary had the ball on a string, with the Broncos surely spending the entire week game planning for the best player in the game.
Broncos vs Panthers Recent History
The Panthers have been dominant during the last six years of this rivalry, winning 9 of 10, with the sole loss coming in round 1 of the 2023 season, where the Broncos snuck by the Panthers 13-12 at BlueBet Stadium. The Panthers have won the last six at Suncorp Stadium, so it would appear the team has absolutely no concerns with travelling to the “Cauldron”. The Panthers also managed to win the only game in the finals over the past six years, beating the Broncos 26-24 in the 2023 Grand Final in insane circumstances.
The teams met just once this season, back in Magic Round at Suncorp Stadium where the Broncos closed 5.5-point favourites with the Panthers listed as the “home” team. If you’re looking at that number and can’t quite believe it, well believe it. This was a Panthers team that had lost six of seven coming into the matchup and were without Mitch Kenny and Scott Sorensen. The Broncos were crucially without Reece Walsh and Ezra Mam, and despite an early Broncos try to lead 6-0, and a tight opening 35 minutes which had the scores locked at 8-apiece, the Panthers hit the turbo from that point on. After Luron Patea burst over in the 36th minute to take the lead, the Panthers scored four unanswered converted tries in 17 minutes to run roughshod over the Broncos, winning 32-8. The stats were tight for a game with this sort of scoreline, and showed how clinical the Panthers can be when at their best. The Broncos will need to be at their absolute best this week to get the win.
Walsh vs Cleary, Who Wins?
The Panthers opened as 2.5-point favourites after their impressive performance last week against the Bulldogs, and that number has not budged all week. The market seems very content in their opinions here, and I don’t see this number changing all that much before kick-off. I make this number basically a pick em’, with a lot depending on how the returnees look for the Broncos. The Broncos probably have to hope that Walsh doesn’t take a backwards step with the returns of Reynolds and Mam, and that he continues his high usage that has seen their attack look lethal since Reynolds, Mam and Cobbo have been out. The Panthers will be sweating on the availabilities of both McLean and Martin, with massive ramifications if McLean is out in my opinion. This would likely see either Garner start at centre (unless Martin is also out), or Alamoti shifting to centre and Jenkins back to the wing. None of that sounds positive for the Panthers, and the availability of these guys will shape how I bet the side in this game. For now, though, no bet.
Looking towards the total, and it opened 45.5 and has shot all the way up to 49.5. I 100% agree with this move and bet the over earlier in the week. Both these teams have looked scintillating in attack over the past month, whilst both defences have left a lot to be desired. Yes, we haven’t got the best of the number here, but the over is the play. Perfect conditions are expected on Sunday afternoon in Queensland, and there are no excuses for either team, with a Grand Final berth on the line, not to leave everything they have out on that field on Sunday afternoon. Let’s go shootout.
Over 49.5 points
$1.90 (2.5 Units)
Broncos vs Panthers Player Prop Bet: Staggs to Terrorize Panthers’ Left
Our Best Prop Bet: Staggs 1+ Try
As mentioned in the main article, the Panthers’ left edge defence has been struggling for a few weeks now, and with the possibility of some movement amongst the outside backs with the injuries to McLean and Martin, expect that side of the field to struggle to contain this deadly Broncos’ right edge.
Katoni Staggs (1+ try)
$2.80 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi: Broncos vs Panthers
Leg 1: Over 49.5 points – See write up above
Leg 2: K Staggs (1+ try) – See above player prop bet.
Leg 3: B To’o (1+ try) – To’o shows up in the big spots, and it doesn’t get much bigger than this. To’o is also the one guy in this backline that I don’t think it matters if there are some late changes and he starts on the other side of the field, he will still find a way to score.
SGM Odds: $11.00 at Dabble
Broncos vs Panthers Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday, 28th September
Location: Suncorp Stadium – Brisbane
Time: 4:05pm AEST
Weather: Sunny, 26 degrees
Odds: Broncos ($2.25) vs Panthers ($1.65)
Line: Panthers (-3.5)
Points: 49.5
Where to Watch Broncos vs Panthers
Watch the Broncos vs Panthers match on Channel 9, as well as live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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