The penultimate week of the NRL and with just 4 teams remaining, tensions are going to be high once the players take the field. This week’s action begins in Melbourne with the Storm hosting the Sharks. Always bitter rivals on and off the field, the potential outcome of this fixture will only enhance the feeling in this match. It sets the stage for an exhilarating game as both teams will be desperate to feature in the NRL Grand Final on the first Sunday in October. Before You Bet is here to help with a detailed look at what is ahead, with the aim of finding you a winner or two to add to your enjoyment.
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Storm vs Sharks Prediction & Betting Tips: NRL Preliminary Final
Not the same, but still getting the job done
The Storm earned themselves a week off with a controlled 26-18 victory over the Bulldogs at home. Starting strongly, they allowed their opponents back into the contest and only lead narrowly 14-12 at HT. Falling behind, the Storm scored two tries with 15 minutes remaining to steal victory away. It was somewhat surprising that they weren’t more dominant given they had 52% possession and completed at 82%. They made 8.8m per carry, dominated the PCM’s (631) and made 6 line breaks also. Perhaps teams are figuring them out. Aside from conceding 18 points, they missed 31 tackles and allowed 8.7m per carry. They must be better this week as, unlike the Bulldogs failed to, the Sharks will make them pay for their errors.
Another strong victory
It’s been back-to-back sudden death matches for the Sharks and that appears to bring out the best in them. Last week, they travelled down to Canberra and comprehensively defeated the Raiders 32-12. Despite what has been said about their opponents, you can take nothing away from how they performed. They had an equal share of possession and the same completion rate as their opponents (78%) but carried the ball further (9.3m per carry) and had 5 line breaks. They also missed 46 tackles. When the game was on the line though, they took their chances and built relentless pressure through some smart attacking options taken by their halves.
Stats that matter
- The home team has won 7 out of the past 10 games between these two sides. This was the case in 2025 when the Sharks won 31-26 in Round 11 and the Storm returned the favour in Round 17 with a 30-6 victory.
- In Melbourne, the Storm have a 76% win record while the Sharks have won just 3 times in 17 attempts (18%).
- These two sides have a strong defensive structure, both averaging 19ppg in this area. The Storm are the superior attacking team but only just, scoring 27ppg compared to the Sharks 25ppg.
Are the Storm back to their best?
The Storm received some great news with Papenhuyzen, Hughes and Blore named to return in this match. The first two are key inclusions of their spine and should ensure that Grant and increased freedom to move around the ruck. It does come with a risk though; Hughes is returning early and has suffered multiple serious injuries at the back half of the season. The risk for Papenhuyzen remains the same but should they lose him during the match, it could be catastrophic; hopefully, that doesn’t occur. This has overlooked and disrespected what the Sharks have achieved. There is a solid argument that they are the form team of the competition and have looked superior to the Storm in the closing matches of the season. Their record at this ground is sure to create doubt in punters and the fact that they have a short turnaround into this game, their second consecutive (tough) road match, with also have its challenges. As much as the Storm appear to be more capable, this game will be closer than the odds are suggesting. A lot must go right for the home side to return to the dominant team we have known in recent seasons. There is too much doubt on them in season 2025 and while they are capable, the value lies in using the line to your advantage in what is expected to be a very tight contest.
Sharks +8.5
$1.90 (2 units)
Storm vs Sharks Same Game Multi
Leg 1 = Total over 42.5 – this total is unusually low for teams with such potency on attack. The average total in their past 4 games also sits at 49.4 points.
Leg 2 = E.Katoa to score – he has been in great form recently, scoring in each of his past 3 matches. He has also scored in his last match against the Sharks and has 3 tries in his past 5 matches at this ground.
Leg 3 = Iro to score – while Mulitalo is the form player in their team, Iro scored last week to return to form. He has scored recently against the Storm at this ground and will be out to build on his tally. He might just relish the chance to prove a point against Howarth also on his edge.
SGM Odds = $9.50 at Dabble
Storm vs Sharks Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Friday 26th September
Location: AAMI Park, Melbourne
Time: 7:50pm (AEST)
Odds: Storm $1.38 vs Sharks $3.05
Line: -8.5
Points: 41.5
Where to Watch Storm vs Sharks
Watch the Storm vs Sharks match on Channel 9 or live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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