State pride returns to the big stage this Saturday as Western Australia hosts Victoria at a sold out Optus Stadium. This is the first senior State of Origin fixture in 27 years and with 60,000 fans expected in Perth the atmosphere will feel more like a final than an exhibition match.
Victoria has opened as the favourite in early betting markets. This is largely due to their elite midfield depth and overall balance across the ground. However Western Australia enters this clash with massive key position strength and the advantage of playing at home. Historically these contests are defined by high intensity and tight margins and this edition looks no different.
AFL Origin 2026: Western Australia vs Victoria Preview & Best Bet
Western Australia
The Sandgropers are captained by Patrick Cripps whose contested dominance headlines a solid midfield. Chad Warner adds explosive run and scoreboard impact while Shai Bolton provides the X-factor through the middle and forward half. Stephen Coniglio and Jaeger O’Meara will add plenty of experience to the on-ball rotation giving WA a fighting chance of matching Victoria at the coalface.
Darcy Cameron is expected to lead the ruck division. His ability to compete at the hit-out and then act as an extra marking option around the ground is a major asset. This allows Luke Jackson to play a high-mobility role while Tim English can float as a dangerous tall target or secondary ruckman depending on match flow.
Inside 50 WA features some of the most prolific key forwards in the game. Jesse Hogan, Aaron Naughton and Jake Waterman provide a high volume of marking targets, while Kozzy Pickett will be dangerous at ground level. Defensively the pairing of Sam Taylor and Tom Barrass gives WA a formidable intercepting backbone that has proven difficult to score against in recent seasons.
Victoria
Victoria is led by Marcus Bontempelli and possesses one of the most decorated midfields ever assembled for representative football. The squad is highlighted by the presence of 18 All-Australians including prolific ball-winners like Nick Daicos, Zak Butters, Zach Merrett, Caleb Serong, and recent Brownlow Medal winner Matt Rowell.
Max Gawn remains the focal point of the Victorian engine room and will be supported by Tristan Xerri in the ruck. The squad also features dangerous forward options like Toby Greene and Sam Darcy, as well as the evergreen duo of Jack Gunston and Patrick Dangerfield.
The Victorian defensive unit features Jacob Weitering and Tom Stewart who both rank among the elite for intercept marks and rebounding efficiency. While the Big V squad holds a significant lead in total All-Australian blazers they trail WA in total premiership players.
Venue and Conditions
Optus Stadium is a significant factor in this contest. The ground is known for its fast surface and high-scoring potential which often suits teams capable of moving the ball quickly from the contest.
Conditions are forecast to be hot on Saturday evening in Perth. With both sides carrying 25-player squads the ability to rotate players frequently will be essential. Players from both camps have already indicated that the level of physicality will be high from the opening bounce as both states look to re-establish their dominance in this format.
AFL Origin Betting Prediction
Origin football rarely produces blowouts. With limited preparation time and new team combinations, matches often tighten up and are decided by moments rather than sustained dominance. While Victoria holds the statistical edge in individual honours Western Australia’s key-position depth and home-ground advantage will make them very competitive.
The current line offers a substantial head start to the home side. WA has enough marking power and defensive structure to remain within striking distance throughout the four quarters in front of a partisan crowd.
Western Australia +18.5
$1.90
AFL Origin Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday 14th February
Time: 7:40pm AEDT
Location: Optus Stadium, Perth
Odds: Western Australia $2.99 vs Victoria $1.40
Line: Victoria –18.5
Points: 194.5
How to Watch AFL Origin?
You can watch Western Australia vs Victoria on Channel 7 or live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Tail our AFL Tips at Dabble!
Not familiar with Dabble? Check out our full Dabble review here, or by clicking the banner below.
