Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for Day 1 of the Warrnambool carnival on Tuesday, April 30th.
There's 10 races on the card, with Day 1 headlined by the Brierly Steeplechase. The track is rated a Soft 7 with the rail in the true position.
Check out our preview and betting tips for every race on Day 1 below.
Best Bet: Race 1 – Double Bluff
Lay Of The Day: Race 8 - Guizot
Double Bluff was big odds in an Adelaide Cup two starts back, worked hard early to be on the speed before sticking on ok when outclassed. This is certainly no Adelaide Cup field, dropping back to a maiden hurdle he looks well suited. He has trialed nicely over the jumps recently, surely he will be hard to run down and looks one of the best of the day. Michelin may be his main danger, he is a last start winner at 64 grade, looks a little risky getting out in trip for the first time. Darabad can be included for the minor spots, he is yet to win out of maiden grade on the flat. Andrea Mantagna was beaten a long way in a recent trial by an impressive won recently, must be included in exotics.
Unlike the first, I am not nearly as confident here. Beyond Thankful raced well in the Cup at Oakbank then backed it up with a second over the jumps on the Monday. He ran on well to get close but was no match for the winner late. Dodge City has improved at each run this campaign, this looks harder but there was a lot to like about the way he went through the line last time. Trialed well enough here over the sticks recently. Golden Flag lost the rider when going over the jumps two back, he will improve having his second go over them. Hursley has been ok in a couple of country Cups at his last two, if it comes down to a battle on the flat late, he may be the one.
It seems to be a long time coming to see Aloft over the jumps, he has been racing some of the best stayers in the land over the last couple of years. He has trialed well enough over the jumps, it looks a s simple as him getting around safely? He hasn’t been doing much on the flat admittedly in that grade, but look at the opposition here!!
A huge field for the first flat race of the carnival. Lord Of The Turf made up good ground at the track on debut, he then went to Hamilton a month ago and came very wide and ran on hard to narrowly miss. He gets the blinkers on for the first time, although he is drawn wide, he has shown he can handle the wet tracks and out wide is never a disadvantage here at the Bool. Watch the betting with Santelmo Fuego, he was sent out after a poor debut but has been gelded since for his return. Sweet Venom resumed off a long break at Terang, he chased nicely and was good through the line after more than a year off.
Tough race for the baby girls with 6 of the 14 coming to the races for the first time. Lil’ Angel was in a harder race on debut last start, she looks to have a lot to learn, was very green in the run home and did cast a plate. She was only $6 in that race so they obviously have an opinion of her, she maps well and should handle the conditions. Happy to say that she is the best chance of the raced brigade, look for any money for the first starters Ginny Ann, Glenferrie Girl and Electrolytic.
Disappointing result with the early scratching of Slowpoke Rodriguez coming off a good win on the flat on the weekend. It leaves Bit Of A Lad as the one, his last couple have been poor on the flat wince winning here over two miles resuming. You just sense that everything that he has done in the last 6 months is for this, he was flying over the jumps last prep and he will be short here but should be winning. Dormello Mo was poor in this race last year but was good through his next prep, he was off the track for 39 weeks before bolting in here on the flat last time, by 14 lengths no less. Watch the betting for the Kiwi Macklemore.
Nashville Sound bolted in at Penola in the Cup last start, he will work forward from the wide draw and hopefully get outside the speed cheaply. He has raced well in the past here at his home track, handles the soft conditions and will run the trip. If he gets on the speed cheaply, bet again in the run! Mirimar is also drawn wide but he is likely to go back, he has run on well at both runs since resuming, just concerning that he will be giving the top pick a start. Hokkaido Miss is a Waterhouse/Bott runner that has been racing only fairly in town since arriving in Australia, she can improve.
Guizot will probably start favourite here but I am willing to take him on. He has been consistent, but the concerns arise around him on the heavy track (likely to get there by this stage) and the fact that he has been up for such a long time. This is his 9th run this campaign, and he is likely to need a little luck as they will no doubt be getting wide. Paramus Boy has also been up for a while but he did get 6-weeks between runs before running on well at Caulfield last start. Getting back out in trip looks ideal and he is a winner in very wet conditions. Toosbuy can win if saved for one run.
Honourable Mention is resuming off a 3 month break, he has won both of his fresh runs including last prep here at the track by 4 lengths. He is drawn out but will get back anyway, if he gets a good cart into it and to the outside of the track, he will be too strong late. Moor Wanted was good last start, he was beaten 5.7 lengths but was wide throughout and had a torrid run. He was entitled to drop out badly but stuck to his task well. Sweet Snitty will be up on the pace, if the track is favouring those on the speed he will be hard to run down.
Prince Of Venice is resuming and has a terrific fresh record. A little worrying that he has been off the track for almost a year, no doubt Beetroot Williams will have him set for his favourite time of year. Raspberry Rose has had her runs very spaced, 2 of her 3 wins have come fresh as she is here. She will be giving them a start, look for her late. Strategic Force will be up on the speed for a long way, La Lova goes well at the track and gets Pike on. Both of Laoban Tai Tai’s wins were here at her home track, she will need a ripper ride from the wide gate.
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