The Titans will be looking to get back on track after being obliterated last week by the Cowboys, when they take on the Bulldogs on Sunday afternoon of Magic Round. It won’t be easy, as the Bulldogs will be looking to recover from their first loss of the season last week, going down 42-18 to the Broncos. A tough one for the Titans here, but let’s try and find some value to kick off your Sunday!
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Gold Coast Titans vs Canterbury Bulldogs
Location: Suncorp Stadium - Brisbane
Date: Sunday, 4th May
Time: 1:50pm AEST
Odds: Titans ($3.90) vs Bulldogs ($1.26)
Line: Bulldogs -12.5
Points: 47.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
The Titans had their second meltdown in two weeks last week, as they conceded eight unanswered tries after leading 18-6 over the Cowboys after 35 minutes. This was a week after leading the Raiders 16-0 after 25 minutes in round 7. It’s been a concerning fortnight for Head Coach Des Hasler, and star backrower David Fifita has felt the wrath, being dropped from the first-grade squad for Magic Round. Beau Fermor was the best of the Titans last week, scoring a try, running for two-line breaks, creating a try assist, breaking five tackles, running for 133 metres and making 48 tackles. The other Titans players need to take inspiration from the backrower this week if they’re any chance.
The Bulldogs finally hit the wall last week, after kicking off the season with six straight wins. They were flat out of the gates, with the Broncos running in six unanswered tries inside half an hour, killing any chance of a seventh straight win. Three sin bins didn’t help their chances, and this ill-disciple has resulted in some big names being wiped out this week, including Josh Curran, Sitili Tupouniua, and Matt Burton set to miss out. Can the other players step up and cover these losses, or are the Dogs destined for their second straight loss?
These teams met back in round 2 at Belmore Sports Ground, with the Bulldogs closing 7.5-point home favourites, with a total of 48.5. The Bulldogs shot out of the gate, leading 22-0 after 21 minutes, but the Titans wouldn’t go away, scoring four tries in 32 minutes to cut the lead to 10. The Dogs settled it down in the final 15 minutes though, eventually winning 40-24. Matt Burton was an early casualty for the Bulldogs, and with him off the field, the Titans actually scored more points (24-18) than the Bulldogs, giving them some hope this weekend.
Speaking of this weekend, the Bulldogs were listed as 12.5-point favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening at the same number. After the losses of the three aforementioned Bulldogs’ were confirmed, Titans money slowly came in. We are now sitting at 11.5/12.5, depending on where you bet. I would make the Bulldogs a 15.5-point favourite at full strength, and with the losses mentioned, 11.5/12.5 makes total sense. No play on the side.
As for the total, it opened 48.5 and has been bet down slightly to 47.5. I agree with the move, making my fair total 43.5. Whilst it is a Sunday afternoon, after their poor defensive performance last week, I believe the Bulldogs will look to get back to their defensive mindset this week and shut this game down on defence. I am slightly concerned the Bulldogs run away with this, so the Titans team total is the play. My fair team total for the Titans is 14, so like the under here.
Gold Coast Titans (team total) under 17.5
$1.92 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Leg 1: Under 47.5 total points – As above, I like the under here, and with try scorers added the under always represents great value.
Leg 2: B Xerri (1+ try) – There has been talk of Xerri for Origin, and whilst I believe that’s a bit premature, Xerri has been in terrific form this season. Five tries in seven games, and with the Titans conceding 50% of their tries on the right, expect the Dogs to attack heavily on the left.
Leg 3: A Khan-Pereira (1+ try) – A duck egg last week for the Titans flyer, he rarely goes two weeks without a try.
SGM Odds: $11.00 at BoomBet
