The second game on Sunday’s slate sees the Hawks looking to cement their place in the top four when they take on Richmond at the MCG. Can Hawthorn flex their muscle as one of the best sides in the competition? Or will the Tigers pick up another upset win?
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Hawthorn vs Richmond
Location: MCG – Melbourne
Date: Sunday, 4th May
Time: 3:20pm AEST
Odds: Hawthorn ($1.07) vs Richmond ($8.50)
Line: Hawthorn -49.5
Points: 180.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Dabble. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week, and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
Hawthorn have been forced into three changes with young gun Cam Mackenzie out with a fractured hand, while Jack Scrimshaw and Karl Amon both miss with concussion. The Hawks have more than capable inclusions with Luke Bruest, Finn Maginness and Changkuoth Jiath brought into the 23.
Richmond have made one change to their side from Round 7, with Noah Balta back in the side due the game being played during the day.
The Hawks ended their two-game losing streak with a dominant 50 point win over West Coast last week. The win could've been closer to 100 points if the Hawks had kicked straighter, kicking 18.16. Veteran Jack Gunston continued his excellent season, kicking 4 goals to take his season tally to 17 to be seventh in the Coleman Medal.
The Tigers put up another competitive performance in a 20 point defeat against Melbourne on Anzac Day eve, with a third quarter lapse the big difference in the game. Richmond conceded 6 goals to 1 in the third quarter after being down by just 4 points at half time. The Tigers did respond in the fourth quarter, kicking 4 goals to 1, to keep the final margin look competitive.
Hawthorn have been an outstanding team going forward this season, ranking fifth in the AFL for points per game (93 points per game). The Hawks have been outstanding in generating attacking opportunities from set plays, ranking second for scores from centre bounces and sixth for scores from stoppages. Hawthorn also ranks third for scores from kick ins, showing how well drilled their side is at executing from dead ball situations.
The defensive side of the Hawks game doesn’t get enough praise, but it’s as good as any side in the competition. Hawthorn are ranked first for pressure acts, second in tackles and fifth for tackles inside 50. If the Hawks dominate stoppages in the manner they should, and are able to generate repeat inside 50’s through their pressure against an inexperienced Richmond side, things could get ugly quickly.
The Tigers have been the worst team in the competition in taking the ball from defensive 50 to forward 50, and have turned the ball over consistently in their back half. Over their past six games Richmond have conceded 50, 32, 70, 60, 95 and 76 points from turnover.
Hawthorn beat Richmond twice in 2024 by margins of 63 and 48 points, and this clash shapes up to be another big win. One of the best attacking teams in the competition going up against one of the worst attacking teams is only going to end one way, and that’s with a convincing win to the Hawks.
Hawthorn -49.5
$2.10 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals: Jai Newcombe loved playing the Tigers last season, recording 33 and 26 disposals in his two games against Richmond. With Cam Mackenzie out of the side this week, there will be even more ball winning opportunities for Newcombe, who has gone 25+ in 4 of his last 6 games.
Tim Taranto 25+ Disposals: Taranto has been in outstanding form over the last month, averaging 28 disposals per game, and hitting the scoreboard in 3 of those 4 games. Taranto has reached the 25+ disposal mark in 4 out of his last 6 games against Hawthorn.
Jack Ginnivan 2+ Goals: Ginnivan responded upon return from being dropped, kicking 2 goals against the Eagles to go with 17 disposals. With Nick Watson and Dylan Moore receiving most of the attention from opposing defences, it opens up plenty of opportunities for Ginnivan.
SGM Odds: $3.80 at BoomBet
