Monday Night Football closes out Week 4 with one of the NFL’s fiercest rivalries, as the New Orleans Saints host the Atlanta Falcons at Caesars Superdome.
Check out our NFL tips for the Falcons at Saints below, and why not sign up to a new betting site to place your bets this weekend!
NFL 2026-27 Week 4: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Betting Tips
Tuesday October 6th, 11:15am AEDT
Both teams enter at 1-2, making this an important early NFC South matchup before we even get to everything else surrounding it. Atlanta swept the season series last year, winning 24-10 in New Orleans before edging the Saints 19-17 in Atlanta in Week 18. New Orleans therefore have no shortage of motivation against a divisional rival they would love to knock back to 1-3.
But this isn't a normal Saints home game.
Monday night marks the celebration of the 20th anniversary of New Orleans’ return to the Superdome following Hurricane Katrina, when the Saints famously defeated these same Falcons 23-3 in one of the most emotionally significant games in NFL history. Steve Gleason and Curtis Deloatch, responsible for the iconic blocked-punt touchdown that night, will be honoured before Monday's game, while members of the 2006 team and several prominent New Orleans musicians will form part of the celebrations.
The NFL wanted this exact matchup for the occasion. Commissioner Roger Goodell specifically requested Falcons at Saints on Monday Night Football, while Atlanta reportedly asked not to be New Orleans' opponent for the anniversary game.
That atmosphere matters when assessing a Saints team already possessing a genuine home-field advantage.
My numbers make New Orleans -3.5. With the market sitting at -2.5, on the other side of arguably the most important key number in NFL betting, the Saints are my best bet.
Let's break it down.
Last Week Recap
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans somehow managed to turn one of Tyler Shough's best performances into a 35-27 loss to Las Vegas.
For three quarters, the Saints looked good. Shough threw four touchdown passes and helped New Orleans build a 27-16 second-half lead, while Chris Olave continued his outstanding start to the season with nine catches for 107 yards.
Then everything collapsed.
The Saints turned the football over four times in the fourth quarter, with their final five possessions ending punt, fumble, interception, fumble, and fumble. Las Vegas scored 19 unanswered points and escaped New Orleans with the win.
The encouraging part is that the offense moved the ball. New Orleans finished with 381 yards, Shough completed 29 of 42 passes for 255 yards and the passing game repeatedly created opportunities. The running attack remains much less convincing, with Alvin Kamara managing only 36 yards on nine carries while Kendre Miller received four carries.
Olave has been the constant. After opening the season with 182 receiving yards against Detroit, he followed with 86 against Baltimore and another 107 last week. Through three games, he has established himself as the clear centrepiece of this passing attack.
The Saints are 1-2, but this is not an offense incapable of scoring. Their biggest problem last week was simply keeping possession of the football.
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta's Week 3 performance could hardly have been more different. The Falcons travelled to Lambeau Field and dismantled Green Bay 35-14, producing 498 total yards while controlling possession for more than 37 minutes.
The return of Michael Penix Jr. completely changed the offence. After missing Atlanta's first two games, Penix completed 18 of 25 passes for 256 yards and a touchdown, providing the vertical threat Atlanta had badly lacked during an 0-2 start.
The two stars were impossible to miss. Bijan Robinson rushed 29 times for 194 yards and two touchdowns, while Drake London caught nine passes for 194 yards. Together they accounted for more than 400 yards from scrimmage as Atlanta overwhelmed a Green Bay team that simply could not stop them.
Brian Robinson Jr. also provided a useful change of pace, scoring on a seven-yard run in the third quarter. It was enormously impressive.
My concern is how much of that performance belongs to Atlanta, and how much belongs to a Green Bay team whose offensive line and defence were dreadful.
The Packers rushed for just 17 yards, struggled repeatedly in protection, and allowed Atlanta to dictate virtually every part of the game.
The Falcons deserved their win. I'm just not prepared to upgrade them as dramatically as the market appears to have done.
Matchup Breakdown
This starts with the number. My price is New Orleans -3.5.
When my number and the market sit on opposite sides of three, that immediately gets my attention.
Three remains the most important margin in NFL betting, and there is a meaningful difference between needing New Orleans to win by a field goal at -2.5 and laying -3.5.
There are three additional reasons I like the Saints.
1) Atlanta may be slightly overvalued after Week 3
The Falcons looked exceptional against Green Bay. But markets naturally react strongly to the most recent thing they have seen.
Atlanta entered that game 0-2 with an offense that had been among the league's least productive, then Penix returned and suddenly everything worked.
London had 194 yards. Bijan ran for 194. Atlanta scored 35 points. That deserves an upgrade.
I just don't think it deserves enough of an upgrade to make New Orleans less than a field goal favourite at home.
Green Bay's current problems made Atlanta's life substantially easier, particularly in the trenches. New Orleans should offer considerably more resistance.
2) This is a genuine revenge spot
Normally I am careful with the word “revenge”.
Professional football teams do not suddenly gain superpowers because they lost the previous meeting. But divisional familiarity matters, and Atlanta swept New Orleans last season.
The first game wasn't particularly close, with the Falcons winning 24-10 inside this stadium, before New Orleans lost the rematch by two points in Week 18 despite outgaining Atlanta 340-208.
For one of the NFL's most intense rivalries, those losses will not have been forgotten.
3) The Superdome could be worth more than usual
This is the angle that makes me interested in alternate lines. The Saints generally enjoy one of the stronger home environments in football. Monday night should be another level.
The original #Domecoming game in 2006 remains intertwined with the identity of the franchise and the city. Twenty years later, many of the people involved in that night will be back in the building, with a primetime national audience and Atlanta once again standing on the other sideline.
Even Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich acknowledged this week how loud the Superdome normally is for this rivalry and how different this particular game will feel.
Emotion cannot replace talent. But when my underlying number already says Saints -3.5, this becomes another reason I am happy laying less than a field goal.
Verdict: Saints -2.5 is the best bet, with Saints alternate spreads also worth considering at plus money.
Saints -2.5
$1.90 (2.5 Units)
Total Points Market
The total is a good example of why getting the number matters.
The look-ahead sat around 45.5, which would have interested me to the over.
It reopened higher, moved through the key total of 47 and has continued attracting over money, with some markets now sitting around 48-48.5. At that point, I think the market has caught up.
Both offenses showed last week that they can move the football. Shough threw four touchdowns and Olave topped 100 yards, while Atlanta's Penix-led offence exploded for 498 yards.
There are also defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.
But buying an over after losing two to three points of value is rarely a good long-term approach.
Verdict: I would have played over 45.5. At the current number, pass.
Key Players & Prop Markets
Drake London - 100+ Receiving Yards
This is deliberately aggressive. London was a different player with Penix back under centre last week, exploding for nine catches and 194 yards.
Before Penix returned, London had produced just 29 and 51 receiving yards across the opening two weeks. That contrast matters.
Penix gives Atlanta a quarterback willing and able to push the football downfield, and London immediately benefited.
If the Saints play from in front as I expect, Atlanta should have to throw enough for London to see legitimate 100-yard volume.
Play: Drake London 100+ receiving yards.
Drake London - 100+ Receiving Yards
$2.95 (0.5 Units)
Chris Olave — 100+ Receiving Yards
We're going back to the well.
Olave has recorded 182, 86 and 107 receiving yards through three games. He has been brilliant.
The Saints' inconsistent running game only increases his importance, and Shough has shown no hesitation feeding him targets.
With both teams capable of scoring and New Orleans likely to continue relying heavily on the pass, the plus money 100-yard market is worth attacking.
Play: Chris Olave 100+ receiving yards.
Chris Olave — 100+ Receiving Yards
$2.50 (1.25 Units)
Bijan Robinson - Over 130.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards
This number is enormous. So is Bijan's workload.
He has already recorded 173, 81 and 213 scrimmage yards through the opening three games. Even during Atlanta's ugly first two weeks, Robinson remained the constant.
New Orleans should defend the run much better than Green Bay did, so expecting another 194 rushing yards would be ridiculous.
But we don't need that. Bijan caught eight passes for 90 yards in Week 1, and his receiving role gives this bet multiple ways to cash.
If New Orleans limit him on early rushing downs, Atlanta can simply move him into space.
Play: Bijan Robinson over 130.5 rushing & receiving yards
Bijan Robinson - Over 130.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards
$1.86 (1 Unit)
Kyle Pitts - Over 27.5 Receiving Yards
This might be the ugliest bet on the card.
Pitts has produced zero, 15 and five receiving yards through three games. That is horrendous. But the matchup is too good to completely ignore.
Last week, the Saints were hammered by tight ends. Brock Bowers caught 10 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown, while Michael Mayer added three receptions for 32 yards and another score. That's 148 yards and two touchdowns to the position.
Atlanta have also spoken this week about needing to get Pitts involved, with the coaching staff reiterating that he remains an important part of the offense.
At only 27.5, he doesn't need a breakout game. Three catches may do it. Plug your nose, this one could be stinky.
Play: Kyle Pitts over 27.5 receiving yards (Play up to over 31.5)
Kyle Pitts - Over 27.5 Receiving Yards
$2.15 (0.5 Units)
Anytime Touchdown Markets
Kendre Miller anytime touchdown
This is largely a price and role bet. Kamara's rushing workload has declined, while Miller remains the more physical option if New Orleans want a back to finish drives near the goal line.
He only received four carries last week, so there is obviously risk involved. But at $3.70, I'm willing to bet that New Orleans eventually gives him a short-yardage opportunity in a game where I expect the Saints offense to spend enough time around the Atlanta goal line.
Kendre Miller anytime touchdown
$3.70
Brian Robinson Jr. anytime touchdown
Robinson showed exactly why Atlanta added him last week. He provided a genuine change of pace behind Bijan and scored from seven yards out during the Falcons' dominant second half.
At close to $4, there is enough upside if he continues receiving touches around the goal line.
My hesitation is purely matchup based. New Orleans should be considerably tougher against the run than Green Bay, so I don't want to make this an official bet.
Lean: Brian Robinson Jr. anytime touchdown
Final Thoughts
There is a danger of making this game entirely about emotion. That isn't why I'm betting New Orleans. I'm betting them because my underlying number makes the Saints -3.5, while the market is allowing me to lay -2.5, and at some books as little as -1.5.
Everything else strengthens that position.
Atlanta's spectacular Week 3 performance has likely earned them a little too much market respect. The Falcons destroyed Green Bay, but the Packers contributed plenty to that result with major problems on both sides of the line.
New Orleans also have last season's sweep sitting in the background.
Then you add Monday night. The 20th anniversary. The Superdome. The same opponent from 2006. Steve Gleason and members of that team back in the building. And a fanbase that has had this game circled since the schedule was released.
Twenty years ago, the Saints beat Atlanta 23-3 on one of the most famous nights in franchise history.
I'm not expecting history to repeat quite that dramatically. But I do expect the Saints to be incredibly difficult to beat in this spot.
Prediction: Saints 28, Falcons 23
