Thursday Night Football brings us an AFC North rivalry in Week 4 as the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns. Both teams enter the matchup at 2-1 after recording narrow victories last weekend, with Pittsburgh edging Cincinnati 30-27 and Cleveland surviving Carolina 21-18. With every team in the AFC North entering the week with the same record, there is plenty at stake in the first Steelers-Browns meeting of the season.
Check out our NFL tips below, and why not sign up to a new betting site to place your bets this weekend!
NFL Week 4 Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns Betting Tips
10:15am AEST, Friday October 2
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland has responded strongly after losing its season opener, recording consecutive victories over Tampa Bay and Carolina to improve to 2-1 under new head coach Todd Monken. Deshaun Watson has also begun to settle into the offence, becoming just the fourth Browns quarterback in the past 35 seasons to throw multiple touchdown passes without an interception in consecutive victories. Watson added another dimension with his legs last weekend, rushing 11 times for 45 yards against the Panthers.
The challenge now is handling one of the most experienced defensive fronts in football. T.J. Watt has already recorded 3.5 sacks through three games and has terrorised Cleveland throughout his career, producing 17.5 sacks in 15 meetings with the Browns. Monken joked during the week that it was about time Watt and Cameron Heyward retired, but Cleveland's concerns are very real with starting centre Elgton Jenkins and guard Teven Jenkins both ruled out. Rookie receivers Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion have shown promise alongside tight end Harold Fannin Jr., but Watson could be under significant pressure throughout this matchup.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh also sits at 2-1 after Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers offence produced their best performance of the young season in a 30-27 victory over Cincinnati. Rodgers has developed a promising connection with Roman Wilson, who caught a 38-yard touchdown against the Bengals and has received six targets in each of Pittsburgh's first three games, while DK Metcalf remains the biggest threat in the passing game.
The Steelers also found some much-needed production on the ground last weekend through Jaylen Warren. With Rico Dowdle sidelined by a toe injury, Warren exploded for a career-high 176 yards from scrimmage on 20 touches while forcing 10 missed tackles. Dowdle has again been ruled out for Thursday night, which should leave Warren with another substantial workload. Pittsburgh does have concerns in the secondary with Joey Porter Jr. ruled out and Jalen Ramsey questionable with a wrist injury, making pressure from Watt, Heyward, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig even more important.
Prediction
Games between these AFC North rivals rarely come easily for Pittsburgh, particularly in Cleveland, but the matchup in the trenches gives the Steelers a significant opportunity. The Browns already rank near the bottom of the NFL in total offence, passing yards, rushing yards, third-down conversion rate and red-zone touchdown percentage, and now enter this game without two starting interior offensive linemen.
That is a difficult recipe against a Pittsburgh defence featuring Watt, Heyward and Highsmith, while the Steelers offence finally showed signs of life against Cincinnati last weekend. Cleveland has done well to grind out consecutive victories, but Pittsburgh has more proven difference-makers on both sides of the football. With the spread sitting below a field goal, the Steelers are the preferred play to claim an important divisional road victory.
Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5
$1.83 (2 Units)
Player Prop
Jaylen Warren Over 72.5 Rushing Yards
Warren looks set to carry the bulk of Pittsburgh's backfield workload again with Dowdle officially ruled out due to his toe injury. He made the most of that opportunity against Cincinnati, producing a career-high 176 scrimmage yards from 20 touches and forcing 10 missed tackles. Cleveland's defensive front presents a tougher challenge, but Pittsburgh has good reason to keep the ball on the ground and avoid exposing the 42-year-old Rodgers to the Browns pass rush. With Warren now established as the clear lead option and likely to receive another healthy number of carries, he can push beyond 59.5 rushing yards.
Jaylen Warren Over 72.5 Rush Yds
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
