Monday Night Football closes out Week 3 with one of the more fascinating betting games of the round, as the Philadelphia Eagles travel to Soldier Field to face the Chicago Bears.
Check out our NFL tips for the Eagles at Bears below, and why not sign up to a new betting site to place your bets this weekend!
NFL 2026-27 Week 3: Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears Betting Tips
Tuesday September 29th, 10:15am AEST
These teams met only ten months ago, when Chicago went into Philadelphia and produced an impressive 24-15 victory, dominating the game on the ground. D’Andre Swift rushed for 125 yards, Kyle Monangai added 130, and the Bears finished with a ridiculous 281 rushing yards.
The circumstances are very different this time.
The major story is Chicago’s quarterback room. Caleb Williams is dealing with a hamstring injury and is considered week-to-week, while Tyson Bagent remains in concussion protocol and has been unable to practice. That leaves 38-year-old Case Keenum increasingly likely to start on Monday night.
The betting market has reacted aggressively. Chicago were around 1.5-point favourites on the lookahead line, but the Eagles have moved through pick’em, through the key number of three and are now generally laying 4.5 to five points, with some markets already touching 5.5.
That six-to-seven-point adjustment from Williams to Keenum is probably close to fair, but I’m not rushing to lay Philadelphia. In fact, if Chicago gets to +6 after Keenum is officially confirmed, the Bears become very interesting.
My strongest bet, however, attacks the Chicago offense directly. The Bears are being priced like a team incapable of moving the football without Williams, and at a team total of only 16.5, I’m prepared to bet on Ben Johnson finding a way to manufacture at least 17 points.
Let’s break it down.
Last Week Recap
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia improved to 2-0 with a 24-20 road victory over Tennessee, although it was hardly convincing.
Jalen Hurts finished 26 of 37 for 264 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, with both turnovers coming at costly moments. The Eagles trailed late before Hurts produced a nine play, 65-yard game winning drive, eventually finding Darius Cooper for the decisive touchdown with nine seconds remaining.
DeVonta Smith was outstanding, catching 10 passes for 117 yards and a touchdown, but Philadelphia’s offense again looked disjointed for long stretches.
The offensive line also had problems protecting Hurts. Tennessee consistently generated pressure, with Jeffery Simmons alone recording seven pressures, while the Eagles struggled to establish their usual dominance on the ground.
Defensively, Philadelphia ultimately did enough, but there were warning signs. Tennessee moved the ball effectively late, scoring on an 84-yard fourth quarter drive before taking the lead with a field goal. The Eagles also missed tackles and allowed an undermanned Titans offense to remain competitive deep into the fourth quarter.
Philadelphia sits at 2-0, but neither victory has been particularly comfortable.
They beat Washington 24-22 in Week 1 after stopping a late two-point conversion before surviving another one score game against Tennessee.
Chicago Bears
Chicago experienced the complete opposite of their Week 1 explosion.
After scoring a franchise record 59 points against Carolina in the opener, the Bears were held to just three points in a 9-3 loss to Minnesota at Soldier Field.
Brian Flores’ defence completely disrupted Ben Johnson’s offense. The Vikings recorded four sacks and 10 quarterback hits, while Chicago committed two turnovers and never found any rhythm in wet conditions.
Things became significantly worse midway through the fourth quarter when Williams injured his right hamstring while scrambling. He was forced from the game and has not practiced this week, leaving him as doubtful to play.
Bagent replaced him but subsequently suffered a concussion and remains in the league’s concussion protocol. That leaves Keenum preparing as the likely starter.
The temptation after Week 2 is to completely downgrade this offense, but it is worth remembering what happened seven days earlier.
Chicago accumulated 552 total yards and scored 59 points against Carolina, with Williams accounting for four touchdowns and the rushing attack producing six scores. Swift rushed for 124 yards and three touchdowns, while Monangai added 100 yards of his own.
The quarterback situation unquestionably changes the ceiling. I’m not convinced it eliminates the floor completely.
Matchup Breakdown
This has been one of the biggest line moves of Week 3. The lookahead market made Chicago approximately -1.5, meaning the move to Eagles -5 represents around six points of adjustment.
Given the difference between Williams and Keenum, that isn't unreasonable. But it is getting close to the point where Chicago becomes attractive.
Keenum is clearly a major downgrade at quarterback. He hasn't attempted a regular season pass since 2023, and Philadelphia will undoubtedly try to force him into obvious passing situations. That doesn't mean Ben Johnson has to ask him to play like Caleb Williams.
The Bears have a strong running game, multiple playmakers and one of the NFL's better offensive designers. Johnson's job this week will be to simplify the reads, manufacture easy completions and keep Keenum out of third-and-long.
Chicago also demonstrated exactly how to attack this Philadelphia defence last season. The Bears ran for 281 yards, with Swift and Monangai becoming the first Chicago duo in 40 years to both surpass 100 rushing yards in the same game.
Philadelphia know that is coming, obviously, but knowing it and stopping it are two different things.
My issue is simply the number. At +5, I can leave it alone. If Keenum is officially announced and the market pushes Chicago through another key range towards +6, I'm interested.
This Eagles team has won both games this season by four points or fewer and has yet to cover a spread.
Verdict: Bears +5 is a lean. At +6, it becomes considerably more attractive.
Chicago Team Total
This is the bet I prefer rather than taking the full game side right now.
Yes, Keenum is likely starting. But 16.5 points is extremely low for a Ben Johnson offense playing at home in ideal conditions in Prime Time.
The Bears scored only three points last week, and that performance is clearly driving this number. Conditions were horrible last week, and only 12 points total were scored.
But one week earlier they scored 59. Chicago's season-opening performance wasn't simply the product of Williams throwing the ball all over the field. The Bears ran for six touchdowns, Swift and Monangai both broke 100 rushing yards, and Johnson consistently created explosive opportunities through motion and run design.
That is important this week because Chicago's offensive identity doesn't have to completely change with Keenum. The Bears should lean heavily on the running game, screens, quick throws, and play-action. If Johnson can keep Keenum serviceable rather than asking him to win the game himself, getting to 17 points is achievable.
Philadelphia's defence also hasn't quite looked as dominant as expected. Washington scored 22 in Week 1, while Tennessee managed 20 last Sunday despite possessing one of the weaker offenses in football. The Titans moved the ball effectively late and repeatedly made Philadelphia work defensively.
There is also a game script element I like. Chicago's defence has not convinced me through two weeks. Carolina scored 37 in the opener and accumulated 478 yards, while Philadelphia possesses enough talent to force the Bears to continue attacking rather than hiding Keenum for four quarters.
This isn't a massive bet because the quarterback uncertainty is impossible to ignore. It is a bet on Ben Johnson.
Give me Chicago to find three scoring drives and get beyond 16.
Bears Over 16.5 Points
$1.90 (1.5 units)
Key Players & Prop Markets
D’Andre Swift - Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (Best Prop)
This correlates directly with the Bears team total bet. If Chicago are going to score with Keenum at quarterback, the running game needs to carry a significant portion of the workload.
Swift has already shown what this matchup can look like. He carried the ball 18 times for 125 yards and a touchdown against Philadelphia last season, averaging 6.9 yards per carry.
Monangai was even better in that game, rushing for 130 yards, but he enters this week dealing with a knee issue. He returned to practice Friday, so he will still play, but his workload is worth monitoring. That should leave Swift as Chicago's primary option.
There is an obvious risk. If Keenum is completely ineffective, Philadelphia can crowd the line of scrimmage and dare him to beat them outside. Again, that is where Johnson matters.
Chicago needs to manufacture enough easy throws and misdirection to stop Philadelphia selling out against the run. If they can achieve that, Swift should receive enough volume to challenge this number.
D’Andre Swift over 59.5 rushing yards.
$1.90
Anytime Touchdown Markets
Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown
Hurts has somehow made it through the opening two games without a rushing touchdown.
He has still carried the ball 12 times for 62 yards, but Philadelphia have not yet needed their quarterback to finish a short yardage rushing opportunity. That is unlikely to continue forever.
Hurts scored eight rushing touchdowns last season after recording 14 and 15 in the previous two campaigns, and his short yardage role remains one of the most reliable quarterback touchdown profiles in football.
Against a Chicago defence that surrendered 37 points in Week 1, I like his chances of finally finding the end zone.
Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown
$2.55
Luther Burden III anytime touchdown (Lean)
This is the more speculative option. Burden has started the season quietly but consistently, recording eight catches for 95 yards through two games without scoring a touchdown.
His skill set also gives Johnson options beyond traditional receiving routes.
Burden was used on six rushing attempts as a rookie and remains dangerous with the football in space. If Chicago want to manufacture offence for Keenum, I would not be surprised to see Burden involved on motion, an end-around or another designed touch around the red zone.
We're betting on creativity rather than volume here.
Luther Burden III anytime touchdown
$4.40
