NRL Super Saturday is touched by magic this weekend as all three games will take place at the one venue. Fans will be thrilled with the matches on offer, as the Rabbitohs and Knights get things underway. In need of better performances, both teams will be out to break their losing streak. Each will be desperate for a victory and this promising to be an exhilarating game of rugby league. Don’t forget to head to our NRL tips page for more previews, analysis and betting tips for every NRL match of every round!
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights
Location: Suncorp Stadium
Date: Saturday, 3rd May
Time: 3:00pm (AEST)
Odds: Rabbitohs $2 vs Knights $1.82
Line: Rabbitohs +1.5
Points: 45.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week, and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
The Rabbitohs were always going to struggle heading down to Melbourne and the match played out as expected, defeated 24-16. Not without effort, the scoreline flattered the visitors, with a poor second half meaning they were unable to capitalise on a 10-all HT score. They tried hard by completion at 83% with just 48% possession but were let down by the fact they only averaged 7.7m per carry, allowed 7 line breaks (compared to 3), and missed 48 tackles. Having players off the field for foul play also didn’t help their cause.
The Knights were equally as bad, if not worse, as they were defeated 26-12 by the Warriors on the road. On a 3-game losing streak, they were outclassed in the first half and trailed 16-nil at the break. A slightly better second half added some respectability to the score but there is no doubt that this club has issues in attack. It’s hard for a team to perform well when they complete at just 72% (with 48% possession), make significantly fewer metres and allow 7 line breaks.
This is an ugly game to part way with your money in. The initial thought is to avoid it completely; there are better options this weekend. If you must though…the Rabbitohs have the edge in attack (16ppg vs 10ppg) but concede slightly fewer points defensively (22ppg vs 20ppg). There is an argument that the Knights have played weaker opponents; the fact that they have scored so few points is cause for concern. The loss of Mitchell hurts the Rabbitohs, but it does allow Gray to return at fullback with Wighton shifting to 5/8. The Knights are boosted by the return of 3 key forwards in Frizell, Elliott and Saifiti.
The team changes are undoubtedly why the Knights are favourites. There is a lot left to be desired from them though. The improved pack will create better attacking opportunities for the backs, but they still need confidence to do so. If there was ever an ideal opponent for them to do that against, it is here. Given it’s too close to call, invest accordingly and hope that this game goes down to the final few seconds.
Either Team by 10.5 Points or Less
$1.88 (1.5 units)
Same Game Multi
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Leg 1: Total Points Over 44.5 – The average total in their past 5 matches is 51.8 points. Despite the struggles for the Knights, a match like this should open them up and unlock their attack, leading to more points overall.
Leg 2: Sharpe to score – he has scored the second most tries for his team this year, not that it is a large total by any means. What he does well is to take the ball to the line; he is fantastic with his support play. Both will give him the chance to score in this match.
Leg 3: Gray to score – he leads the Rabbitohs this season and will benefit from moving back to fullback. Expect him to want to make a statement after being out of position for most of last week.
SGM Odds: $11 at BoomBet
