It’s a Saturday night blockbuster at the MCG as Collingwood and Geelong go head-to-head. Two premiership contenders who have started the season strongly, set the stage for a cracking contest. Jack Tobin is here to bring you his full preview and betting tips for the match!
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Collingwood vs Geelong
Location: MCG – Melbourne
Date: Saturday, 3rd May
Time: 7:5pm AEST
Odds: Collingwood ($1.50) vs Geelong ($2.60)
Line: Collingwood -13.5
Points: 170.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Dabble. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week, and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
Ladder leaders Collingwood have made three changes to their winning side from last week with Darcy Moore, Lachie Schultz and Mason Cox coming into the side. Jeremy Howe (managed), Dan McStay (knee) and Lachie Sullivan (omitted) make way.
The Pies put together an outstanding second half on Anzac Day, kicking 10 goals to 5 to overrun Essendon in a 41 point victory. Josh Daicos (36 disposals), Steele Sidebottom (35), Scott Pendlebury (31) and Nick Daicos (31) stuffed the stat sheet with impressive performances, while Jamie Elliott kicked 5 goals.
Geelong have made one change after their loss to Carlton, with Tom Stewart missing once again with a knee injury. Mitch Duncan comes in for his first game in 2025.
The Cats produced an uncharacteristically poor performance in an 18 point loss to Carlton last week. Geelong recorded -67 disposals, -48 marks, -19 inside 50’s, -9 contested possessions, -6 clearances and -3 tackles. The Cats will be desperate to bounce back, particularly with their work around the ball.
Despite the loss Geelong’s game overall this season is in good order, ranking 4th for points per game (95). The Cats rank 4th for scores from forward half, 5th for scores from stoppages, 6th for scores from turnover and 7th for scores from centre bounces.
The turnover battle looms crucial to the outcome in this clash, with Collingwood ranking 3rd in the competition for scores from turnover. The Magpies have scored 57, 57, and 59 points from turnover in their last three games, Collingwood ranks 5th for tackles so if they can apply pressure in their forward 50, the Cats will be in strife.
Another crucial battle in this game is the clearance battle, an area Geelong has struggled in this season despite being one of the better teams in the competition. Collingwood ranks 5th in the AFL for clearances, while Geelong ranks 12th. The Pies scored 44 points from stoppage and 19 points from centre bounce last week, so Geelong will need to break even in this battle if they’re a chance to win.
Chris Scott’s side have been good against Collingwood, winning five of their last seven games against the Magpies. This game shapes up to a close encounter, which gives confidence in Geelong having a couple of goals to play with. The Cats will bounce back and give a strong showing in a close match.
Geelong +13.5
$1.85 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
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Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals: The superstar is starting to get going with three consecutive 30+ disposal games coming into this weekend. Daicos has gone 30+ in 4 of his last 5 games, and has hit the 30+ disposal mark in his last two games against Geelong with tallies of 32 and 35 disposals.
Josh Daicos 25+ Disposals: A move to half back is seeing Josh Daicos averaging a career high 27 disposals per game. Daicos has reached the 25+ disposal mark in 6 of his 7 games this season, and has recorded above 30 disposals in 3 of his last 4 games.
Bailey Smith 25+ Disposals: Smith is having a brilliant start to his time at Geelong, averaging 29.5 disposals per game, ranking 8th in the AFL. Smith has reached the 25+ disposal mark in all 6 of his games in 2025.
SGM Odds: $3.30 at BoomBet
