Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin on Sunday, December 10th!
This meeting is the biggest on the Hong Kong racing calendar and attracts enormous international attention. The ten-race card is headlined by four Group 1 races, being the Hong Kong Sprint, Hong Kong Mile, Hong Kong Cup and Hong Kong Vase.
We have a full preview of every race on the card below. Make sure to check out Episode 13 of the Before You Bet Podcast below, where we’ve previewed all four Group 1 races in depth!
SHA TIN RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 5 Mr Stunning
Best Value Bet: Race 10 Keen Venture EW
Race 1
Very competitive affair to start things off. I’ve got the favourite CIRCUIT HASSLER on top but not with a great deal of confidence, and the $3.50 on offer currently looks absolutely rock bottom. All three runs this preparation have been solid and he acquitted himself well last time out behind the likes of Dinozzo and Sacred Elixir. Drops back to Class 3 here, Purton goes back on and barrier 1 will see him get a good run. I thought VICTORY BOYS was a decent each way play in the race third up from a spell. He’s had two starts at the track and distance for a 1st and a 2nd, both at the end of last preparation and both in this Class. His two runs back have been fair, but he should be spot on now to tackle the 1800m. Draws well and he had the likes of King Of Mongolia covered last preparation, so $12 seems reasonable. KING OF MONGOLIA won over this distance last start at Happy Valley, and while it was in the same Class, there’s a big difference between Class 3 at Happy Valley and Class 3 at Sha Tin. He won over this track and distance at the end of last season, but it was in Class 4 and while dominant, the time was slow. LOTUS STRIKES BACK finished behind Circuit Hassler two starts ago and would need to improve to win despite going well last time out over 2000m here, while SERGEANT TITANIUM looks well under the odds for mine, but the Moreira/Size combination will do that. Absolutely not ruling out Je Pense at his first go in Class 3 after flying through the grades this season.
TIP: Circuit Hassler / Victory Boys EW
Race 2
BRAVO WATCHMAN has an imposing record with three wins and two 2nds from five career starts, but you’d be brave to take $1.90 here. He started $1.80 last start and looked home at about the 100m mark, but sat down late to be run down by GOLDEN SUN. He goes up to 60kg here and despite drawing well and Joao Moreira sticking with him, I have to take him on at the price. I’ll be backing SIMPLY BRILLIANT for leading trainer Frankie Lor, who is doing tremendous things with his horses. He ran 2nd last start, beaten a neck in what was his first start in Hong Kong. Lor’s horses are holding their form and given he is second up here, I’d expect him to improve. Draws well for Nash Rawiller and should run a big race. He somehow opened $8 but the bookies were quick to rectify their mistake, winding him in to $4. I wouldn’t be ruling out GOLDEN SUN who, despite going up 3.5kg in weight, can be competitive once again here second up.
TIP: Simply Brilliant
Race 3
NOTHINGILIKEMORE comes up $1.35 favourite here, which is prohibitive odds but he should be winning based on what we’ve seen him do in five starts to date. He looks immensely talented and destined for the top, but he does face a very solid Class 1 field here so will need to be at his best. Very keen to back DUNDONNEL each way. He’s currently at $13/$2.70 and while he opened a much bigger place price, I’m still happy to have a decent crack at what’s on offer for him to run top three in this field of nine. He has his first start for Frankie Lor here, and we’ve seen Lor improve these sorts of horses time and time again this season. He’s trialled very nicely leading into his first up run today. A number of these drop down in class having been running against horses competing in today’s Group 1’s and it looks an even bunch to split outside of those two.
TIP: Nothingilikemore / Dundonnel EW (place)
Race 4
For a full run down on today’s Group 1 races, listen to the podcast above.
This is the first Group 1 of the day – the Vase over 2400m, and it’s wide open. I’m in the corner of the Japanese with KISEKI here, who I thought worked the house down at trackwork on Thursday morning. He’s got four wins from eight starts, three of which have come in his past four races. He was a last start winner of the Japanese St Leger at Group 1 level over 3000m, and I don’t see the drop back to 2400m being much of an issue here. He still looks relatively unexposed as a four-year-old, and with the good draw and the weight relief I think he’ll run a mighty race here as the $4.0 second-favourite. HIGHLAND REEL is the one he’ll have to run down. This globetrotting superstar is a multiple Group 1 winner across several countries. He won this race in 2015 and ran 2nd in this race last year, when he went for home fairly early and was only run down very late. He cleared out from the 3rd horse by about five lengths, and there’s no reason he can’t go close again today. He’s had just the two starts this preparation and he looked in need of both, so third up today he should be near his peak and if that’s the case, he’ll be hard to beat. Expect a much-improved performance from TIBERIAN here after he ran 7th in last month’s Melbourne Cup. He had a horror trip that day and will be much better suited dropping back to 2400m here. TALISMANIC has done all his best racing in the anti-clockwise direction rather than Sha Tin’s clockwise circuit, so I’d be prepared to take him on, and TIBERIAN actually beat him twice earlier this year. GOLD MOUNT is the best of the locals; his performance last start was outstanding after being severely held up at the top of the straight before charging home to run 4th. The step up in trip will definitely help, but it’s whether he’s up to these sorts of horses. SATONO BASIL not out of it.
TIP: Kiseki
Race 5
The second Group 1 of the day here with the Sprint over 1200m, and in my eyes it’s a two horse race. MR STUNNING is Hong Kong’s highest rated horse and deserves favouritism here, particularly because he is best suited by the barrier draw. He’s won both G2 lead up races for this event and should just get the run of the race from barrier 4. I think the locals have the edge over the internationals here, and I’d be very surprised if the race went to something from outside HK. That means LUCKY BUBBLES is the only real danger to Mr Stunning, and he’d be much shorter if he didn’t draw barrier 1. I don’t think there deserves to be such a discrepancy in the prices, but certainly barrier 1 isn’t ideal for Lucky Bubbles, as we saw last start when he was held up the entire straight. That’s how they want him ridden, however, so he’s going to need the luck to come if he’s to win this. But if the luck does come in the straight, he’ll be fighting out the finish. The whisper is that the Japanese are tipping LET’S GO DONKI, who ran 2nd in the G1 Sprinters Stakes first up before running 3rd over 1400m last start. ONCE IN A MOON is the other Japanese runner in the race, and she ran 3rd in the Sprinters Stakes behind Let’s Go Donki last start. They will try and lead from barrier 2, and she could give a good sight out in front, but she’ll be vulnerable in the last 100m against the top HK sprinters. If THEWIZARDOFOZ were to ever bring his A game, it would see him very competitive. Backing Mr Stunning hard and saving on Lucky Bubbles.
TIP: Mr Stunning (Best Bet)
Race 6
We have a break between Group 1’s here. There’s a huge watch on European import LOCKHEED here, who is on a path to the Derby in March and has his first start in Hong Kong today. He comes here as a Group 1 placegetter behind Churchill over 1400m, and also ran a very narrow Group 2 2nd placing over 1600m the last time he raced. He’s won two of his three trials in Hong Kong leading into his local debut, and there’s been a stack of money for him in early betting which now sees him installed a dominant $2.50 favourite. Joao Moreira has been on board for all three trials and unsurprisingly sticks with him today. It’s rare that an overseas import wins at his first start in Hong Kong, and my query would be him first up over 1200m. Having said that, it’s rare that an overseas import wins two 1000m trials leading into their debut, so he may well just be too good. I can’t jump in at that price, so I’ll instead be with JING JING WIN, but I’m really hoping they go forward from barrier 14, though I think the instruction will be to drop him out for cover. He’s got a good record at the track and distance and although he was disappointing as the short-priced favourite last start, he really needs galloping room to show his best. LUCKY DOLLAR has claims and TEAM FORTUNE looks a blowout chance that can be included at $67.
TIP: Jing Jing Win
Race 7
The Hong Kong Mile is the third of the Group 1’s and it’s a bit of a lottery this race. I’ve been fairly critical of BEAUTY ONLY’s past few runs, particularly last start, and as much as I thought I’d be taking him on today, I’ve ended with him on top. They’ve been pretty public in saying the horse has been behind the 8-ball since returning from a race in Japan at the end of last season, and that this will either come too quickly for him, or it will be inch perfect timing. His last run showed he was getting there, and even though I thought he could have produced more, there are some positives to take from it. He is open to improvement (the stable have said his last 10 days have been very good), he gets a 2kg weight swing on the other horses from last start and he was only beaten 1.3L. There looks to be a decent tempo on today, which is critical to him winning, and he looks a good enough price to back each way here at $7. SEASONS BLOOM is the race favourite and Joao Moreira was very bullish about his chances, labelling him his best G1 ride of the day. He’s won two of his three races this preparation, and won the lead up race last start in nice enough style. He draws beautifully here in barrier 5 so he’ll get a dream run, and he’s still open to improvement. But he will need to improve as this is the best field he’s faced so far, and he doesn’t get the 5lb weight advantage that he did last start. BEAUTY GENERATION and CONTENTMENT are the two that represent value for mine. Beauty Generation has done little wrong this preparation, and I was critical of the ride he got last start. He’ll roll forward from barrier 9 and he’ll be in this for a long way. Contentment comes into this second up after a slightly disappointing first up run, but he did have excuses as he was caught wide the majority of the race. He’s won two from three when second up and was a Group 1 winner over this track and distance back in May. His best would be very competitive at big odds. The Aidan O’Brien pair aren’t without chances – I’d suggest LANCASTER BOMBER is the pick of the two with Ryan Moore aboard. I’ll be taking on HELENE PARAGON who has had an interrupted preparation and worked poorly on Tuesday.
TIP: Beauty Only EW / Contentment EW
Race 8
Another very competitive race. I really don’t think there’s that much between TIME WARP and WERTHER here, so with Werther a dominant $.280 favourite, Time Warp looks a bit of value at $7. Werther ran down Time Warp last start in the Jockey Club Cup at this track and distance, and he was only second up on that occasion with improvement still to come. His work during the week was outstanding and John Moore has been pretty bullish about him, so with a lovely run from barrier 3 there’s no doubt he’s the one to beat here. However, Time Warp has to lead the rest of the field up behind tearaway leader Harbour Master in that race, and fought on doggedly to only be edged out late by Werther. This horse improves with every run, and he’ll get a softer run today from barrier 5 without a big leader in the race. He may even lead himself. Think he’ll be there for a long way. I’d be pretty keen on POET’S WORD if he drew a bit better than barrier 12 here. This horse has finished in the top two at all five starts this campaign, the two most recent of which have been at Group 1 level. Last start he ran 2nd behind the dominant Cracksman – now one of the best horses in the world, and his trainer Sir Michael Stoute has a phenomenal record when bringing horses to Hong Kong. I believe he’s had brought eight horses to Hong Kong previously, for three wins and four placings, so whenever he comes across you have to take notice. DEAUVILLE simply didn’t get conditions to suit and didn’t have things go his way when failing last start. He’s much better than that as evidenced by previous starts. Looks a decent chance at double figure odds for O’Brien/Moore. NEOREALISM won the G1 QEII Cup over track and distance back in April, beating Pakistan Star and Werther, but there were reasons for that and I’ll be taking him on today.
TIP: Time Warp EW / Poet’s Word EW
Race 9
Two I’m keen on at decent odds here. I’m prepared to take on TOP BEAUTIFUL (possibly save on him) after two minor placings in his past two starts. Last start he finished off soundly to run 2nd, beaten 0.75L over the track and distance, but he goes up slightly in weight again today and if he couldn’t get the job done with the sweet trip he had last start, he may struggle to get it done today. SPICY SURE is the favourite for the race and it’s telling that Zac Purton sticks with him over CALCULATION. This horse improved at his second start for trainer Frankie Lor, and if he improves at all again today he’ll go very close. I was expecting a bit of a better price but I’ll definitely be saving on him. Keen to back DIAMOND KING at the $9 mark. He ran 4th over track and distance last start off a 6-week break, but two starts ago he won over track and distance when he was second up from a spell. So I’m banking on the fact he’s going to take the same improvement second up from his let-up today, and hopefully that sees him be competitive. I’m also interested in AFFLUENCE START at $18, though we are likely to get a better price than that. This former Australian horse was first up in Hong Kong last start and ran nicely for 5th. He’s never placed first up but his record does suggest he improves second up, so if that is the case then he could run a cheeky race at odds.
TIP: Diamond King EW / Affluence Start EW
Race 10
Competitive Class 2 to end the day. I’m with CITRON SPIRIT each way who won two on the trot to start the season before running 3rd in Class 1 last start. Drops back to Class 2 here and although he has to carry a big weight, his time when winning over track and distance in this class two starts ago was half-a-second faster than the favourite RATTAN’s winning time two starts ago. I’ve got no real knock on RATTAN though. He’s three from three this preparation, has won three times from five starts at the track and distance, and gets a lovely draw here. TIME TO CELEBRATE steps up to 1600m for the first time, though he did win over 1500m back in New Zealand so it shouldn’t be so much of a concern. KEEN VENTURE looks huge odds at $26 after running 2nd to Citron Spirit two starts ago at this track and distance. He wasn’t competitive in Group 3 company last start but he gets a big drop in class here and can outrun his price.
TIP: Citron Spirit EW / Keen Venture EW
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
