Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Saturday, June 2nd.
We have a nine-race card on a Soft 5 track with the rail out 6m. There’s a bit of rain around so I suspect we’ll remain somewhere in that Soft range without the track becoming too wet.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below.
Rosehill Racing Tips
Best Bet: Race 7 #2 I Am Serious
Best Value: Race 5 #5 Sayed / #6 Black On Gold
RACE 1
Two that immediately jumped off the page at me on first look. (9) Galina goes on top for the Snowden/McEvoy combo. This horse was beaten a nose first up behind stablemate Eawase, who then went to Doomben at her next start and defied the pattern of the day when winning by 1.5L. I think that form’s pretty solid and Galina gapped the third horse when she ran 2nd. Last start she was given no hope, blocked the entire straight when beaten just 1.1L. Down to 53.5kg today and drawn wide in barrier 8, which means she will have no issue getting clear running. Think she’s a clear top pick and happy to back her at $3.30. (5) Diplomatico cost $1.7million and makes his debut here after two fair trials. This stable would only send him to the races if he was ready to race and with a price tag like that I doubt they’d send him there if he wasn’t a legitimate winning chance. Certainly will be backing it at $6.50.
TIP: (9) Galina / (5) Diplomatico EW
RACE 2
Only three real chances for mine in this race. (1) Reflectivity comes out of a strong race at Scone last start behind Moss Trip, where he led and was only run down late to be beaten 2.7L. The Moss Trip form is strong and he comes back to a race here that doesn’t have a great deal of metropolitan form in it. I also think his form back in Melbourne was pretty useful. Brenton Avdulla takes over from Koby Jennings today and the only real concern is the 61kg, but $5.50 is a nice enough price. (2) Gresham bolted in at Canterbury last start to win by 4.3L. Prior to that he went down as the well-backed favourite at Warwick Farm, but he was first up from a seven week break on that occasion. Perhaps the penny has dropped and he’s figured it all out now but he has to carry weight and do it all again today. The value looks to be (5) Playard at $9. He’s had absolutely no luck in his past two starts, caught three and four-wide without cover at Scone before missing the start by 6L last start. Barrier 4 today and Angland takes over. Can bounce back if he jumps clean.
TIP: (1) Reflectivity / (5) Playard EW
RACE 3
Two of interest here. (4) Charlayne looks to be well suited third up from a short let-up. She resumed over 1200m when beaten 3.4L by Houtzen in Group 3 company, before dropping back to 1100m last start when coming from the back of the field to get within 0.2L of the winner. Up in weight today but McEvoy takes over from Jay Ford and her first two starts proved she was a pretty talented filly. $5 looks a very reasonable bet. (9) Dawn Dawn could be the value at $10 for the Hawkes camp. The booking of Robert Thompson is very eyebrow-raising, but with Avdulla opting to ride (2) Easy Eddie it makes sense that he takes the ride. Hopefully it’s not too difficult a steer for him from barrier 1. The horse was unlucky not to win first up in Melbourne, before returning to Sydney and winning at Canterbury. Last start she came from back in the field to make up good ground at Canterbury, which isn’t easy to do. (8) Brabinger comes to town after two dominant wins at Newcastle. The form has proved good out of those races and with McDonald on he gets his chance. (2) Easy Eddie and (3) Smartedge not hopeless.
TIP: (4) Charlayne / (9) Dawn Dawn EW
RACE 4
Highway Handicap and there’s only two horses I’m interested in here. (2) Hemmerle won his first two starts in the bush before running 5th behind Lisdoonvarna last start, beaten just 1.7L. That’s legitimate Saturday metro form and this is a Highway filled with a lot of deadwood, so a repeat of that last run would see this horse very hard to beat. $3.70 seems reasonable. The only horse I see beating it is (8) Doctor On Ice which is now the only Matt Dunn runner in the race. Bolted in on debut at Murwillumbah on soft ground, which he’s likely to get here, before running 3rd at Ipswich last start. Goes from Clayton Gallagher to Brenton Avdulla, draws barrier 1 and looks a chance at $6. Backing both.
TIP: (2) Hemmerle / (8) Doctor On Ice EW
RACE 5
This is a very confusing race. There may be plenty that comes down to what the track is rated come race 5. (1) New Tipperary has put in two good runs this preparation, beaten just 2.7L behind the likes of Osbourne Bulls first up before being held up the entire straight at Scone last start. Third up today and has a good record at this track and distance. If he’s back at the level he was a few preparations ago, he’ll win this. Waller has three chances in this and none of them would surprise if they won. (5) Sayed probably needs a wet track to be a genuine winning chance, while (6) Black On Gold will only be a genuine winning chance on firm ground. Sayed comes into this first up and has placed in four of his five starts when fresh. He’s won four from five on wet ground and won by over 4L when he ran over this distance on soft ground back in August last year. Black On Gold is third up here with James McDonald replacing Kathy O’Hara. He’s won three from four at this distance and is undefeated at this track and distance. (8) Goathland backed up two impressive trials when winning over this track and distance first up. He went to Queensland last start but was caught wide throughout and was galloped on so had obvious excuses. Returns to Sydney here and back to the scene of his first up win. Has a great third up record but probably wants it firm. (10) Dagny is third up and gets McEvoy on board. Won over this track and distance last prep and has obvious claims. Very hard race to be confident in. Will have a spec on the two less fancied Waller runners.
TIP: (5) Sayed EW / (6) Black On Gold EW
RACE 6
Wide-open race. (3) Princess Posh didn’t get things entirely go her way last start when beaten 1.9L behind I Am Serious. She was slow away, cluttered up on the fence and only fully clear the last 150m of the race. Prior to that she won first up before being pulled out of the race behind Serene Miss. I think she’s going well and will appreciate clear running from barrier 7. $5.50. (6) It’s Time For Magic won first up, which was only her second win in 18 starts. Hard to be confident about a horse with that record but McEvoy sticks with her and she finds a race she can go close in once again. $6.50. (9) Hay Now was very well supported last start but did nothing. Wary of her with Jason Collett taking over today. (10) La Chica Bella ran 2nd to I Am Serious last start and gets barrier 1 here but Kathy O’Hara doesn’t fill me with any confidence.
TIP: (3) Princess Posh / (6) It’s Time For Magic EW
RACE 7
Looks a complete match race here between the two favourites. (2) I Am Serious bounced back from a disappointing first up effort to power home over the top of them last start. She’s now won six of her nine career starts. James McDonald sticks with her and jumps off the stablemate Monasterio and she’ll be ridden similar to what she was last start from barrier 12 here. I’m leaning slightly to her on the basis that I expect the track to be in the soft range and she’s undefeated on soft ground. (6) Seaway undoubtedly gets the better run from barrier 5 and his last run was as good as you can get without winning. He came from last with 60.5kg and was only beaten half-a-length by Lisdoonvarna. Prior to that he won by 3L at Canterbury. Tye Angland goes back on today and it looks a race between those two.
TIP: (2) I Am Serious
RACE 8
Big field and a number of horses that could win this on their best form but also a number of horses that are plain and simple out of form. That leaves me backing two horses that seem fairly obvious on paper. (11) Noire ran 4th first up and will surely derive plenty of benefit from the run. Down in weight to 53kg today and Collett goes on instead of Shinn, who can’t make that weight. Collett from barrier 11 is a positive. (7) Special Missile really does get his chance to win here. He went as close as you can last start and was beaten a similar margin the start before that. Avdulla goes on today from the low draw and expect him to be aggressive. $5.50 and could get better on the day. Interestingly, Avdulla jumps off (12) Crafty Cop who trotted in by 3.3L last start. No surprise to see a blowout result here because there’s plenty of horses capable but just not showing it.
TIP: (11) Noire / (7) Special Missile
RACE 9
Again, a race where only two horses really stand out as appealing betting propositions. (4) Nictock has won seven from nine career starts and resumes from a spell with two trial wins under the belt. The concern will be if the track is soft at this stage because his only two defeats have come on rain-affected ground. If he’s improved during the spell then he’ll give this field something to beat. Happy enough taking $6. (9) Difficult To Get is another horse that resumes and she’s finished in the top two on four occasions from five starts when fresh. She’s had a win and a 2nd from two starts at the track and distance and draws barrier 1 here which should allow her to sit up in the box seat. $5.50 currently but wouldn’t surprise me to see her drift slightly. Outside of those two I can find knocks on just about every other runner.
TIP: (4) Nictock / (9) Difficult To Get
