Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing on Saturday, July 18th.
A rare Saturday meeting at the Kenso track which is currently rated a heavy 8 with the rail in the true position.
Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday July 18th
Best Bet: Race 6 (4) Handspun
Best Value: Race 4 (5) Whiskey Shooter
Typically tough 2yo race to kick us off. (6) Giovanna Run is the horse to beat off the back off a very good 2nd here over 1150m. Up to 1400m should suit, and she did start $8 in a quality race on debut. She easily beat home (4) Montefilia in a trial before her first up run. That horse was good at group level behind Holyfield at her 2nd start. I thought (2) Squanto was a shade disappointing last start, but his last 100m and work through the line was solid. He’s got a fitness edge on these, 1400m and further will suit, as does the heavy ground. The winner of his last start is pretty smart too and it wouldn’t shock me if that turns out to be a pretty handy form line. I’ll give Squanto another chance at the odds up to 1400m.
(4) Mr Magical is unbeaten from two starts and has started a dominant favourite at both. If Loy can get across to a good position from the barrier, he can measure up here. (7) Foxie La Belle ran 11th beaten 3.8L behind (1) Leo last start over 1000m. Foxie La Belle is suited up to 1100m and should get a good run with a significant weight swing. (5) Tallis wasn’t far away in that race and is very consistent, as was (8) Skara Brae who rocketed home. She will love the 1100m and the flying Collett sticks, but she’ll be near last and 10 lengths to make up.
The highlight of the day with some exciting horses going around, none more so than (3) Taileur for the Godolphin camp. This filly started $1.35 on debut and bolted in, before resuming at Randwick last start and winning well. She had to run down a fit leader who kicked away, and they put 5L on 3rd there. I don’t think we’ll see a track upgrade, but she’ll be even better on top of the ground. The value could lie with (7) Willowheart who is first up. This filly has led all the way in both first up runs, before starting $4.40 against Splintex and running a distant 3rd. Her recent trial was very good, going to the lead and cruising to the line under no riding. There is pace drawn inside here but I think she’s quick enough to get across and will give a huge sight. (2) Emeralds has to be respected. First up last preparation she was beaten 3.3L by Flit and Lyre, and the campaign before she was beaten 1.3L by Yao Dash and Funstar and both her trials have been good. The only question with her is the 1100m, which she’s never seen and is short of her preferred distance. Going to take a chance on Willowheart who I think is pretty handy and can at least run top three, with her place odds double the odds of the favourite winning.
(7) Willowheart E/W
$15.00
Very interesting runner here in the form of (5) Whiskey Shooter for the GaiBott camp. This mare went to Melbourne for two midweek runs, winning at the Hillside track after controlling the race before drifting at the Lakeside and fading to finish 5th, beaten 11L. That was an odd race with two handy swoopers in Grand De Flora and Mrs O’malley clearing out from the field. Back to Sydney here and she does look to get a fairly uncontested lead here. I think she’s value at $19. The danger could be (1) Home Ground who ran very well first up off a 2018 Victorian Derby campaign. The step up to 1800m is good and whilst only 2nd up here he’s certainly good enough and does map nicely. (2) Kiss The Bride is an obvious chance and should be approaching peak fitness 3rd up. He’s 1/1 at the distance but the Bjorn Baker camp goes much better at Warwick Farm. (4) Guise drops back 200m in distance but will be around the mark again as will a few others. I think Whiskey Shooter is great value at $19, and I won’t be losing on Home Ground.
(1) Home Ground $8.00
(5) Whiskey Shooter E/W
$19.00
Highest rating race of the day, a BM94 over 1800m. (1) Frankley Awesome won over 2000m at big odds last start, but it wasn’t all that surprising given her form at longer trips. She was well backed there and came from back in the field to win a good race, beating Sixties Groove who won the Grafton Cup next time out. If this was 2000m or up to 2400m I’d be very keen, but even over 1800m with a 3kg claim I think she’s the best horse in the race and can win again. (7) Toryjoy will go to the front and be hard to run down. She should be fully fit now with the 1800m run under her belt. So many of these staying races can be run at a crawl and she should get every chance. (5) Matowi gets a weight swing off (6) High Opinion which could be enough. The latter draws barrier one which I don’t think will be good especially by race 5. (2) Herengawe will be fitter and wasn’t far off Frankley Awesome last start. The wetter the better for him.
(1) Frankly Awesome
$5.50
Only two horses I’m interested in here. The first is (4) Handspun who is flying. Should’ve won 2nd up, then atoned with an explosive last 200m last start to win very well. 4th up at 1400m on another wet track is perfect for him and draws to sit back and make his run in the best ground. The other is (1) Man Of Peace who is flying. Went to Melbourne last start and got an easy lead, just going down to the handy Danon Roman. Will be on speed, very fit and hard to run down. (3) Thy Kingdom Come is down from Queensland and certainly good enough, but I have queries on a heavy track, and he looks short enough based off that alone. Not sure how well (6) Onslaught is going. I thought he was a good chance in Melbourne with a great 2nd up record but he showed little. Not sure about him on heavy either. Handspun is the clear horse to beat and if he brings what he did last start, he’ll win again. If leaders are suited, I could save on Man Of Peace, and discount the rest.
I was disappointed to see Gary Portelli say that (4) Spaceboy likely won’t be leading here. I would’ve loved to see the speed machine go head to head with (1) Witherspoon over 1000m. Spaceboy is actually going very well but leading quickly is his best asset and I can’t back him at $2.90 with that asset stripped. (11) Rosina Kojonup is also very fast, and with 52.5kg from barrier 1 Rachel King surely tries to hold out Witherspoon from out wide. She’s certainly good enough and has won all three trials, but the heavy and possibly inferior ground is a worry. Despite the big weight I see no reason to jump off (1) Witherspoon. She’s a mare in form, Louise Day rides her very well and takes 3kg off. From out wide she can jump and run, and this is no harder than last start in my opinion.
Handy race with some progressive horses. I’ll start with (7) Strawb who has won her last two, the most recent a 3.3L win as the $1.40 favourite at Newcastle. I’ve no doubt she’ll measure up to this grade, but she does switch back to heavy ground (which she has won on) and maps back again. The recent trial of (2) Madam Legend was excellent, leading all the way under a hold to deny Emeralds. She opened double figures but the $9 available still seems value to me. (5) Almerheri should be ready 3rd up at 1400m and maps nicely midfield with cover. (1) Threeod next best. Strawb just a touch short but a deserved favourite, with Madam Legend the one for me.
(11) Le Gai Soleil is going through the grades with ease, winning her last two by a combined 6.3L on heavy tracks. She stays at 1550m and draws barrier 2 but is still the horse to beat. I think you’ll get a better price than the $1.80 available if the track plays like I expect. They often get off the fence later in the day on a heavy Kensington track, so the inside barrier is a negative. Anything over $2 for this filly pending scratchings seems fair enough though because she has way more upside and should prove too strong again with 54kg. (5) Adana could be the danger. She draws wide and likes wet ground but never wins. Her 2nd last start was a typical Adana run, closing off strongly. (13) Debari gets in light and maps nicely but I don’t think he has the class of Le Gai Soleil despite winning well last start.
