Sunday afternoon in Townsville closes out the first major Origin-affected bye round, as the Cowboys host the Rabbitohs at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. This is exactly the type of week where simply looking at ladder position can mislead you, because team list damage matters more than usual. Both sides are missing key players, but the Rabbitohs have been hit in the spots that matter most. Latrell Mitchell is sidelined with a back issue, Cameron Murray is away in Origin camp, Campbell Graham is out with a calf problem, and the backline has been heavily reshuffled. The Cowboys are also without Tom Dearden and Reuben Cotter, but Jason Taumalolo returns at lock after a Magic Round rest, and North Queensland are coming off a strong upset win over the Roosters.
From a betting perspective, that makes Cowboys -2.5 the play. South Sydney has enough class to make this competitive, especially with Cody Walker still there, Alex Johnston returning from a knee injury and Jye Gray at fullback, but they lose too much strike and middle leadership for mine. At home, in Townsville, with their confidence up after last week, I think the Cowboys are the right side. Let's break it all down!
Cowboys vs Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips: 2026 NRL Round 12
Cowboys Building Belief Without Dearden
North Queensland’s Magic Round win over the Roosters was one of their best of the season, and it came in exactly the kind of spot that should build belief. Without Tom Dearden, with forward leader Jason Taumalolo being rested, and with young players forced into bigger roles, the Cowboys still produced a gritty upset against a highly rated Sydney side. They had to overcome being down to 12 men twice across the game, yet still defended stoutly and found a way to win.
That is important for this week because the Cowboys no longer look like a team simply waiting for Dearden to come back. Jake Clifford has the experience to steer them around, Liam Sutton managed his debut well, and Scott Drinkwater remains the attacking key from fullback. The Cowboys’ best football comes when Drinkwater is getting good yardage starts and linking around the edges, and this matchup should give him enough chances to influence the game.
The return of Taumalolo also matters. With Reuben Cotter away on Origin duty, North Queensland need another senior middle to help settle things, and Taumalolo gives them exactly that. He does not have to be the wrecking ball of old; he just has to win contact, steady the ruck and provide some physical presence against a Rabbitohs pack missing Murray. Add in Thomas Mikaele, Matthew Lodge, Griffin Neame, Heilum Luki and Sam McIntyre, and the Cowboys still look strong enough through the middle to get the better of this matchup.
This is not a full-strength North Queensland side, but it is a confident one. At home, that is enough.
Rabbitohs Hit Hard at the Wrong Time
South Sydney’s Magic Round loss to the Dolphins was a reminder of how vulnerable this team can look when its attacking stars are unavailable or limited. The Rabbitohs went down 32-10, with the Dolphins controlling the slippery conditions far better and outside backs Herbie Farnworth and Jack Bostock causing major problems. Souths scored through Bayleigh Bentley-Hape and Euan Aitken, but they never really looked like building enough pressure to threaten the result.
The bigger issue this week is the team list. Latrell Mitchell is out with a back injury, Campbell Graham is sidelined, and Cameron Murray is unavailable due to Origin. That removes a huge amount of strike, defensive communication, and middle leadership. Tallis Duncan has been moved into the centres alongside Latrell Siegwalt, Talanoa Penitani makes his NRL debut on the wing, and Peter Mamouzelos returns at hooker after two games in NSW Cup.
That is a lot of moving parts. Alex Johnston returning is obviously a positive, because he remains one of the best finishers in the game, but Souths’ overall shape is much less intimidating without Latrell and Graham in the backline. Cody Walker can still create something from nothing, and Keaon Koloamatangi gives them power on an edge, but the balance of the side looks fragile.
The loss of Murray is especially important. He is South Sydney’s best middle connector, defensive organiser and tempo player. Without him, the Rabbitohs are more reliant on individual moments and less dependable in the grind. In Townsville, against a Cowboys side with Taumalolo back and momentum from last week, that is a difficult ask.
Cowboys vs Rabbitohs Recent History
The Cowboys have had the recent edge in this matchup, winning the last three against South Sydney. Last season, North Queensland beat the Rabbitohs 24-16 in Round 6, while the 2024 Magic Round meeting also went the Cowboys’ way, 28-22 at Suncorp Stadium.
Recent results:
• 2025 Round 6: Cowboys def Rabbitohs 24-16
• 2024 Round 11: Cowboys def Rabbitohs 28-22
• 2023 Round 17: Cowboys def Rabbitohs 31-6
• 2022 Round 24: Rabbitohs def Cowboys 20-10
• 2021 Round 17: Rabbitohs def Cowboys 46-18
South Sydney has won the past two games at this venue, but the last matchup here was all the way back in the 2020 season.
Cowboys Too Strong at Home
This is a pretty simple handicap for me. The Cowboys are not full strength, but the Rabbitohs are missing the players who most change their ceiling. Latrell Mitchell, Cameron Murray and Campbell Graham are not just names on a team sheet. They are three of the pieces that give South Sydney its identity. Latrell creates fear and space, Murray holds the middle together, and Graham gives them defensive reliability and yardage out wide. Take those three out, and the Rabbitohs become much easier to contain.
North Queensland still have enough issues to keep the line manageable. Dearden being out matters, Cotter being in Origin camp matters, and there is always some risk with a Cowboys side that can drift in and out of games. But last week’s performance against the Roosters showed they can still win tough games without their main half. More importantly, they showed they can defend with grit and handle disruption.
At home, that should translate. The Cowboys should win the middle often enough through Taumalolo, Lodge, Mikaele and Neame, and Drinkwater should get enough good ball opportunities to create points against a reshuffled South Sydney edge. The Rabbitohs will need Cody Walker to produce something special and Johnston to finish limited chances, but that feels like a narrow path compared with the Cowboys’ more repeatable route through territory and field position.
With the line sitting at Cowboys -2.5, I don’t think we need to overcomplicate it. North Queensland are healthier in the right areas, at home, and coming in off a confidence building win. South Sydney have too many Origin/injury holes to trust on the road.
Cowboys (-2.5)
$1.90 (2 Units)
Cowboys vs Rabbitohs Player Prop Bet
Yes, he’s only scored one try in the previous five games, but Purdue has a great matchup this week. The Rabbitohs’ right edge has struggled all year and coming up against a back rower playing in the centres (Duncan) should be easy pickings for someone with Purdue’s pace and skill.
Jaxon Purdue (1+ try)
$2.15
Cowboys vs Rabbitohs Same Game Multi
Leg 1: Cowboys ML – Slightly safer than the best bet.
Leg 2: J Purdue (1+ try) – See best prop bet.
Leg 3: T Duncan (1+ try) – Whilst he might struggle defensively in the centres, Duncan should prove an absolute handful in attack.
Cowboys vs Rabbitohs Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday, 24th May
Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium - Townsville
Time: 4:05pm AET
Weather: Fine, 26 degrees
Odds: Cowboys ($1.67) vs Rabbitohs ($2.20)
Line: Cowboys (-2.5)
Points: 52.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week and are correct at the time of writing.
Where to Watch Cowboys vs Rabbtiohs
Watch the Cowboys vs Rabbitohs live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
Tail our NRL 2026 Tips at Ladbrokes!
Not familiar with Ladbrokes? Check out our full Ladbrokes review here, or by clicking the banner below.
