Saturday afternoon football at Jubilee Stadium gives us one of the clearer margin spots of the first major Origin-affected bye round, as the St George Illawarra Dragons host the New Zealand Warriors. With seven teams on the bye and Origin players unavailable, this is the type of week where team list strength matters more than usual. The Warriors are missing key pieces, with Mitch Barnett and Kurt Capewell away on Origin duty and Tanah Boyd ruled out for the season with an ACL injury, but they still look far too strong for a Dragons side stuck on the bottom of the ladder and still chasing their first win. Te Maire Martin takes over at halfback, Jackson Ford and Jacob Laban move into the starting side, and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck has been listed among the reserves as he pushes to return from a shoulder issue. The Dragons regain Jaydn Su’A from suspension, but Moses Suli is out with a back injury, forcing Su’A into the centres.
We take you through our full preview, best bet, prop bet, and Same Game Multi for the Dragons vs Warriors clash below!
Dragons vs Warriors Prediction & Tips: 2026 NRL Round 12
Dragons Still Searching for First Win
The Dragons were far from disgraced in their most recent outing, but the result was still another loss in a season that has become increasingly difficult to defend. Their 28-6 defeat to Penrith during Magic Round was at least a better performance than some of their previous blowouts, with the Red V completing at 83% in the first half and limiting the Panthers to just two tries before the break. Clint Gutherson again worked hard from the back, finishing with 27 runs for 226 metres, while Damien Cook nearly produced a brilliant individual try before the bunker ruled Brian To’o had possession prior to Cook’s toe ahead.
That is the frustrating thing with the Dragons right now. There are pieces of effort. There are individual performances that deserve respect. Gutherson continues to compete despite his obvious limitations, Cook still gives them tempo, and the young forward pack featuring the Couchman brothers, Dylan Egan and Hamish Stewart has shown signs of becoming a useful platform. But effort alone has not been enough. They have scored fewer than 20 points in each of their last six games, which is a brutal profile to take into a matchup against a Warriors side sitting second on the ladder and riding a five-game winning streak.
The team news does not really fix the problem either. Su’A returning is a positive but using him in the centres tells you plenty about the state of the backline. Without Suli, the Dragons lose power and punch on an edge, and they now ask Su’A to cover a role that takes him away from the back row impact where he is usually most effective. The Dragons might hang tough for a period at Kogarah, but they remain a side with little attacking confidence.
Warriors Rolling Despite Origin Absences
The Warriors’ Magic Round performance against Brisbane was one of the most impressive wins of the season, and it came despite the major in-game disruption of Tanah Boyd suffering a suspected ACL rupture. Rather than fall apart, New Zealand rolled on, with Te Maire Martin stepping into the game and starring as the Warriors ran in seven tries to two in a dominant 42-12 win over the Broncos. That result pushed the Warriors further into genuine contender territory, and while Boyd’s injury is a major blow, the broader system looks strong enough to absorb it.
What stood out most was the balance. The Warriors are not just a side riding emotion anymore. They have genuine structure, power through the middle, and finishing class out wide. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has scored 10 tries in his last six games, and the Warriors have won four of their five games in Australia this season, which matters when assessing their ability to travel and still produce their normal level.
This week is a different test because Origin has clipped the forward pack. Barnett and Capewell are significant outs, and losing Boyd permanently means the Warriors are now resetting their spine. But even with those changes, the quality gap remains clear. Te Maire Martin is experienced, Ford and Laban bring work rate into the pack, and the bench still has capable pieces with Marata Niukore named among the new faces. This is a side that should continue to dominate territory against weaker opponents.
The Warriors don’t need to be perfect to cover a big margin here. They need to complete, kick well, and force the Dragons to play from deep. Given St George Illawarra’s lack of points, that should be enough.
Dragons vs Warriors Recent History
These sides met twice last season, with the Warriors winning both in tight contests. New Zealand edged the Dragons 15-14 in Wollongong in Round 10, then won 14-10 in Auckland later in the year. Go back further and the Warriors also dominated both 2023 matchups, winning 48-18 in Wollongong and 18-6 in Auckland. The one win for the Dragons in the past five was their 30-12 victory at WIN Stadium in round 7 of the 2024 season.
Recent results:
• 2025 Round 24: Warriors def Dragons 14-10
• 2025 Round 10: Warriors def Dragons 15-14
• 2024 Round 7: Dragons def Warriors 30-12
• 2023 Round 26: Warriors def Dragons 18-6
• 2023 Round 17: Warriors def Dragons 48-18
Warriors to Win by Margin
This is a game where I’m happy to be aggressive despite the Warriors’ missing pieces. Yes, Tanah Boyd is out. Yes, Mitch Barnett and Kurt Capewell are big losses through Origin. But the Dragons are the type of opponent where New Zealand’s system and depth should still be far too strong.
The key for the bet is that the Warriors should be able to control territory. The Dragons have battled hard in patches, but they simply do not score enough points. When a team has failed to reach 20 points in six straight games, asking them to stay within two converted tries of a top two side becomes a big ask. St George Illawarra’s best route is to drag this into a low scoring grind, complete high and hope the Warriors are clunky with a new halves setup. That is possible, but it feels like the only path.
The much more likely script is New Zealand winning the yardage battle, forcing the Dragons to defend repeat sets, and eventually cracking them through weight of possession. Te Maire Martin does not need to be Tanah Boyd. He just needs to play straight, kick well and allow the Warriors’ edges to attack a Dragons backline that is already patched up without Suli.
Origin rounds can create weird results, but this does not feel like one of them. The Warriors are still strong where it matters, and the Dragons remain too limited with the ball. If New Zealand get to 24 or 26 points, I’m not sure the Dragons can keep pace. I’ll take the Warriors to be far too strong and win by 13+.
Warriors (13+)
$1.91 (2.5 Units)
Dragons vs Warriors Player Prop Bet
After scoring doubles three weeks in a row, Khan-Pereira was held try-less last week by the Broncos. I don’t see that happening this week. Setu Tu is an absolute liability in defence, and AKP might score 5.
Alofiana Khan-Pereira (2+ tries)
$2.20
Dragons vs Warriors Same Game Multi
Leg 1: Warriors (13+) – See best bet.
Leg 2 A Khan-Pereira (2+ tries) – See above best prop bet.
Leg 3: J Su’A (1+ try) – Could Su’A be used the same way the Raiders were using Sasagi earlier in the year as a hard running centre? I’m banking on it here.
Dragons vs Warriors Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday, 23rd May
Location: Jubilee Stadium - Kogarah
Time: 5:30pm AEST
Weather: Showers, 19 degrees
Odds: Dragons ($4.60) vs Warriors ($1.20)
Line: Warriors (-13.5)
Points: 51.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week and are correct at the time of writing.
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