AFL Round 17 begins on Thursday night with Geelong hosting Brisbane at GMHBA Stadium. The Cats are always a tough out on their home deck, but the seemingly in-form Lions will be looking to push them all the way in what has match of the round potential.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Cats vs Lions below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Geelong vs Brisbane Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 17
Cats Searching for Consistency
Geelong returns to GMHBA Stadium following their mid-season bye, looking to recapture their best form as the race for the top four heats up. Chris Scott has his squad navigating a frustratingly patchy stretch, having dropped three of their last four matches prior to the break. Narrow defeats against Carlton and Adelaide were somewhat offset by a dominant 45-point victory over Gold Coast in round 14, but their most recent outing resulted in a gritty loss to a rampaging Fremantle outfit. Despite this recent inconsistency, the Cats remain a formidable proposition at Kardinia Park. They receive a massive double boost at the selection table this week, with explosive midfielder Bailey Smith returning from illness and intercept star Tom Stewart also expected to be back in the lineup. It is also a significant week for the club, with key defender Sam De Koning and dangerous forward Ollie Henry both set to run out for their 100th AFL games.
Lions Finding Their Feet
Brisbane makes the challenging trip down to Victoria starting to hit their stride at exactly the right time of year. Sitting right on the edge of the top four with a 9-6 record, Chris Fagan's squad is finally beginning to look like their old selves again. The Lions have built solid momentum by stringing together three consecutive victories, highlighted by a very impressive win over the Sydney Swans last week. While they are only just starting to look back to their best, their elite kicking game is proving increasingly difficult to stop, allowing them to control the tempo of matches and efficiently supply their forward half. With their injury list shrinking and their confidence steadily growing, Brisbane travels south knowing a strong performance is vital for their finals positioning.
A Grand Final Rematch
When looking at the recent history between these two proud clubs, the narrative is incredibly layered. This blockbuster serves as a highly anticipated rematch of the 2025 Grand Final, a day where Brisbane overwhelmed Geelong by 47 points at the MCG to secure the premiership. However, the Cats managed to exact some brutal revenge earlier this season in round 10, travelling up to the Gabba and putting on an absolute masterclass to secure a dominant 41-point victory. Geelong completely stifled the Lions' transition movement in that May encounter, restricting their scoring opportunities and punishing them on the counter. Given how much Brisbane has improved their ball movement since that heavy defeat, this latest chapter presents a vastly different tactical battle.
The Verdict
While Geelong is notoriously difficult to beat at GMHBA Stadium, backing Brisbane to cover the +14.5 spread looks to be the best play on the board. The Lions are playing a highly reliable brand of football right now, carrying the momentum of three straight wins and an offensive unit that is functioning beautifully. The Cats certainly receive a massive boost with Stewart and Smith back on the park, but their habit of playing tight, grinding contests makes trusting them to clear a 15-point margin very difficult against quality opposition. Brisbane has clearly evolved since their heavy round 10 loss, tightening up their structures and unlocking their forward half efficiency. Expect a physical, finals-like intensity where both teams have their chances down the stretch.
Brisbane +14.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Geelong vs Brisbane Prop Bet
The bye certainly came at the right time for Jeremy Cameron who looked to be playing extremely sore over the last couple of games. With extra rest, you can expect Jezza to be back to his best this Thursday, especially at the Cats home deck where he’s kicked 3+ goals in 10 of his last 11 outings.
Jeremy Cameron 3+ Goals
$2.15
Geelong vs Brisbane Same Game Multi
Brisbane +24.5: We’ll take the Lions with some extra cover for our SGM for more safety.
Max Holmes 25+ Disposals: Just continues to rack up the touches with consistency. He’s now had 25+ in 17 straight matches.
Darcy Wilmot 20+ Disposals: He had a quieter game against the Swans last week but was in ripping form prior with 25+ disposals in five straight games.
Josh Dunkley 20+ Disposals: Dunkley is coming off his best game of the season with 26 disposals against the Swans last weekend. He’s also averaging 24.8 in his last five against the Cats.
Geelong vs Brisbane Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Thursday 2nd July
Time: 7:30pm AEST
Location: GMHBA Stadium, Geelong
Odds: Geelong $1.45 vs Brisbane $2.76
Line: -14.5
Points: 172.5
Where to Watch Geelong vs Brisbane
You can watch the Cats vs Lions live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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