Sunday afternoon at GIO Stadium gives us a bottom-of-the-table clash between the Raiders and Dragons, and it is not exactly a game I’m keen to get heavily involved in. Canberra sit 16th, St George Illawarra sit 17th, and both teams have repeatedly shown why they are at the wrong end of the ladder. When the two worst sides in the competition meet, the first rule is simple: keep the stake small.
That said, the total at 53.5 looks too high. I make this somewhere in the mid-40s, and while both teams are capable of defensive collapses, neither attack is reliable enough to justify a number this big. The Raiders are coming off a second-half meltdown against Melbourne, while the Dragons were improved but still lost 22-20 to Newcastle. The Raiders have Simi Sasagi back, however, otherwise appear relatively unchanged from last weekend’s loss, while St George Illawarra name Clint Gutherson, Moses Suli, Valentine Holmes, Damien Cook, Kyle Flanagan and Daniel Atkinson in a relatively settled side.
Raiders vs Dragons Prediction & Tips: 2026 NRL Round 17
Raiders Collapse After Fast Start
Canberra’s 42-20 loss to Melbourne last week was brutal because they actually started the game extremely well. The Raiders led 16-0 after tries to Savelio Tamale, Owen Pattie and Xavier Savage, and for about 20 minutes they looked like they might produce one of their better performances of the year. Then the game completely flipped. Melbourne outscored the Raiders 42-4 from that point, and the Raiders’ discipline, defensive shape and composure disappeared.
That is the Raiders’ season in a nutshell. There is enough talent to produce bursts, but the consistency is not there. Ethan Sanders had a rough night with five errors and minimal yardage, while Canberra’s penalties and inability to handle momentum changes again cost them badly.
This week’s matchup is a clear drop in class, but that does not automatically make Canberra trustworthy. They still need to prove they can complete at a high level, kick well and defend without giving teams cheap invitations. Against the Dragons, that should be enough to win, but the question for totals is whether they can suddenly become a clean attacking team. I’m not convinced.
The Raiders’ best path is a controlled one: run hard through Tapine and Horsburgh, use Weekes and Savage on shifts, and force the Dragons to work off their own line. That points more toward a grind than a scoreboard avalanche.
Dragons Improving, But Still Last
The Dragons’ 22-20 loss to Newcastle last week was heartbreaking, but it also showed continued improvement. St George Illawarra completed at 92%, their best mark in nearly a year, and produced their fewest errors in 19 games. They had a chance at the death, with Kyle Flanagan bobbling a potential match winning try, while missed conversions from Valentine Holmes proved costly.
That is a far better profile than the Dragons we saw earlier in the season. Under Dean Young, they look more disciplined, more organised and more willing to grind. Clint Gutherson’s leadership from the back has helped, Damien Cook continues to provide tempo, and the young forwards have been competing well enough to give them a base.
The issue is still attack. The Dragons can stay in games now, but they are not yet a side that regularly puts up points. Even in last week’s improved performance, they finished on 20, and they needed near perfect completion to get there. Against Canberra, they can absolutely compete, but asking them to contribute heavily to a total in the mid-50s feels like a stretch.
What the Dragons should want is another controlled game. Kick well, complete high, test Canberra’s patience and make the Raiders prove they can be disciplined. If they do that, they could win. But again, that suits the under.
Raiders vs Dragons Recent History
These sides met twice last season, splitting a pair of tight contests. Canberra won 28-24 at GIO Stadium in Round 18, while the Dragons got them 18-12 at WIN Stadium in Round 22. Recent meetings have generally been close, with the last nine clashes decided by 10 points or fewer.
Recent results:
• 2025 Round 22: Dragons def Raiders 18-12
• 2025 Round 18: Raiders def Dragons 28-24
• 2024 Round 2: Raiders def Dragons 26-24
• 2023 Round 19: Raiders def Dragons 36-26
• 2023 Round 7: Raiders def Dragons 20-14
So, the Raiders have had the better of this matchup recently, but the games have been close in general. Could we see another tight one at GIO Stadium on Sunday?
Small Play on the Under
This is comfortably my smallest play of the week. I have very little confidence in either team, and when two bottom sides meet, strange things can happen. Errors create short fields, poor defence can turn ordinary shape into tries, and panic can create points.
But the number still looks too high. At 53.5, the market is asking both teams to contribute significantly, and I don’t trust either attack enough for that. My fair is in the mid-40s, and the likely paths for both teams point toward a slower game.
Canberra needs to simplify after last week’s collapse. The Raiders were at their worst when they lost discipline and tried to survive momentum rather than control it. Against the Dragons, they should be focused on yardage, long kicking and making St George Illawarra earn everything.
The Dragons, meanwhile, have improved by becoming more controlled. Their 92% completion rate last week shows the blueprint. They are not built to win a track meet; they are built to stay in the contest, kick well and hope their senior players can manufacture enough points late.
A 24-18 or 26-16 type result feels much more likely than anything racing past 53.5. I don’t want a big stake on two bad teams, but at this number, the under is the only play I can make.
Under 53.5 Points
$1.91 (1 Unit)
Raiders vs Dragons Player Prop Bet
Simi Sasagi was having a breakout season until injury cruelly struck him down, however he should be back to full fitness this week named in the centres, and I trust him to score on his return.
Raiders vs Dragons Same Game Multi
Leg 1: Under 53.5 – See best bet.
Leg 2 S Sasagi (1+ try) – See above best prop bet.
Leg 3: S Tu (1+ try) – Keeps scoring tries weekly, and letting tries in weekly. The Raiders edges have been poor this year, so expect the strong running Dragons winger to have his chances again this week.
Raiders vs Dragons Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday 28th June
Location: GIO Stadium - Canberra
Time: 2:00pm AEST
Weather: Possible showers, 13 degrees
Odds: Raiders ($1.35) vs Dragons ($3.25)
Line: Raiders (-10.5)
Points: 53.5
Where to Watch Raiders vs Dragons
Watch the Raiders vs Dragons clash live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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