St Kilda returns to Marvel Stadium on Saturday afternoon looking to keep its fading finals hopes alive against one of the AFL's hottest teams. The Saints were left heartbroken after surrendering a 23-point lead to Sydney last week, while Carlton produced arguably its best performance of the season by dismantling reigning premiers Brisbane by 76 points.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Saints vs Blues below, with odds thanks to UniBet!
St Kilda vs Carlton Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 22
Saints Searching for Finishing Touch
St Kilda looked on track for one of its biggest wins of the season before Sydney stormed home with nine of the final 11 goals last week. Despite the disappointing finish, there was plenty to like about the Saints' performance for three quarters, particularly around the contest where they matched one of the AFL's premier sides.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera continued his remarkable season with 24 disposals and three goals, while the return of Cooper Sharman provides a much-needed boost to a forward line that has lacked a reliable target over the past fortnight. The Saints have consistently shown they can compete with the league's best but remain in search of the complete four-quarter performance that has so often eluded them.
Blues Brimming with Confidence
Carlton arrives full of belief after a stunning 76-point demolition of Brisbane, kicking 24 goals with 16 individual goalkickers in one of the most complete team performances of the season. Jagga Smith was again outstanding through the midfield, while George Hewett and Sam Walsh controlled the stoppages as the Blues overwhelmed the reigning premiers.
The turnaround under Josh Fraser has been remarkable. Carlton has won nine of its past 11 matches and is averaging an incredible 127 points across its last three games at Marvel Stadium. Improved ball movement, relentless forward-half pressure and multiple avenues to goal have turned the Blues into one of the competition's most dangerous attacking teams.
Match Prediction and Best Bet
Carlton deserves to be favourite given its recent form, but history suggests this matchup is often far tighter and lower scoring than many expect. Each of the past five meetings between these clubs has finished under the total match points line, with both sides generally preferring a contested brand of football that limits scoring opportunities.
St Kilda's defensive system is designed to slow games down and force opposition into mistakes, while Carlton has shown it is happy to win through territory and pressure when required. With plenty on the line for both clubs, expect a tense, finals-like contest where scoring comes at a premium.
Under 174.5
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
St Kilda vs Carlton Prop Bet
St Kilda has desperately needed another genuine marking target inside 50 over the past few weeks, making Cooper Sharman's return a timely one. The key forward comes back into the side after kicking nine goals across his last four matches, and against a Carlton defence that will be focused on limiting the Saints' midfield influence, expect Sharman to get his opportunities close to goal.
Cooper Sharman 2+ Goals
$2.15
St Kilda vs Carlton Same Game Multi
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 30+ Disposals | Ollie Florent 20+ Disposals | Hugo Garcia 20+ Disposals
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera has been sensational at Marvel Stadium this season, recording 31 or more disposals in seven of his last eight appearances at the venue and should again be the Saints' primary ball winner. Ollie Florent has settled beautifully across half-back for Carlton, recording 20+ disposals in four of his past five games, and faces a St Kilda side that has consistently allowed opposition running defenders to accumulate possessions. Hugo Garcia rounds out the multi after a quieter fortnight, with the emerging midfielder capable of bouncing back after posting disposal counts well above this mark throughout his recent midfield stint.
St Kilda vs Carlton Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Sunday 9 August
Time: 7:20pm AEST
Location: Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Odds: St Kilda ($2.21) vs Carlton ($1.67)
Line: 6.5
Points: 174.5
Where to Watch St Kilda vs Carlton
You can watch the Saints vs Carlton live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Back in our 2026 AFL Tips at UniBet!
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