Two of the most entertaining teams in the competition face off in the Apple Isle as Hawthorn and Melbourne come together. It’s a crucial game with the Hawks sitting in third and the Demons sitting in seventh, in what is set to be an excellent match in Launceston.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Cats vs Lions below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Hawthorn vs Melbourne Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 17
Keep Getting The Job Done
They weren’t perfect, but the Hawks made it four wins from their last five games with a fourteen point win over GWS in Round 16. Hawthorn led by 43 points early in the third quarter, but couldn’t close the game in convincing fashion, with GWS kicking 8 of the last 11 goals to nearly run over the top of the Hawks. In saying that, Hawthorn are third on the ladder and could be six points clear inside the top four with a win in this clash. The Hawks game is in excellent shape, ranking 3rd in the AFL for disposals, 3rd for clearances, 3rd for tackles, 5th for points per game and 5th for inside 50’s. Hawthorn’s biggest asset this season is their ability to score off turnover, which they are the second best team in the league for.
A Crucial Clash
After their narrow loss to Adelaide prior to their bye, the Demons are now seventh on the ladder, however they are equal on points with fifth placed Geelong at the time of writing. A win could have Melbourne as high as fourth, while a loss could have them as low as ninth, which highlights how important this game is. Melbourne’s game this season has been built on transition and clearance. They rank 2nd in the league for transitioning from defensive half to scores, 4th for scores from stoppage and 5th for clearances. The big question for the Dees is if they can’t find a way to make this work at Launceston.
Recent Head to Head History
This has been a very even matchup in recent seasons, with the Demons slightly ahead 3-2 across their last five matches thanks to a brilliant 39 point win when the two teams met in Round 10. Head to head history can be thrown out the window however, given this game is being played at UTAS Stadium.
Hawks or Demons? Here’s Our Hawthorn vs Melbourne Tip
Melbourne have been a strong side from stoppages this season, however it has been an area of strength for the Hawks lately. Across the whole season the Hawks rank tenth for scores from stoppage with 33.9 points per game, however over the last fortnight they have scored 66 and 47 points from stoppage. Whoever can get on top in this facet of the game will go a long way towards winning.
This is the first time Melbourne has played a game for premiership points in Launceston, a venue Hawthorn has dominated at for a long time, winning 68 out of 89 - a winning percentage of 76.40%. The Hawks are currently on a 12 game winning streak at UTAS Stadium, a venue that they play so well compared to travelling teams. Melbourne have struggled outside of Victoria in 2026, with an 0-6 record with losses by 48, 45, 17, 49 and 17 points. Hawthorn’s record in Launceston, combined with Melbourne’s struggles on the road, suggests all roads lead towards another Hawthorn victory.
Hawthorn -14.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Hawthorn vs Melbourne Prop Bet
Hawthorn co-captain Jai Newcombe is on an absolute heater at the moment, with three consecutive games of 30+ disposals. Newcombe has recorded 31, 31 and 36 disposals across his last three games and you can guarantee that Newcombe will be dominating at the coalface on Saturday afternoon.
Jai Newcombe 30+ Disposals
$2.70
Hawthorn vs Melbourne Same Game Multi
Jai Newcombe 30+ Disposals: As highlighted above, Newcombe is in red hot form at the moment and will be looking for a fourth straight game with 30+ disposals.
Connor Macdonald Anytime Goalscorer: Connor Macdonald has been one of the Hawks most important players this season and has been in excellent goal kicking form of late. Macdonald has hit the scoreboard in each of his last four games and has kicked a goal in two straight games against Melbourne.
Kysaiah Pickett Anytime Goalscorer: Kozzy was well held against Adelaide, but will be looking to bounce back against the Hawks. In the eight games prior to Round 15, Pickett had kicked 16 goals and kicked at least 1 goal in 7 of those 8 games.
Hawthorn vs Melbourne Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday 4th July
Time: 1:15pm AEST
Location: UTAS Stadium, Launceston
Odds: Hawthorn $1.42 vs Melbourne $2.90
Line: Hawthorn -14.5
Points: 165.5
Where to Watch Hawthorn vs Melbourne
You can watch the Hawks vs Demons live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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