Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Morphettville on Saturday, May 4th.
The Group 1 Robert Sangster Stakes (TAB Classic) and Group 1 Australasian Oaks (Schweppes Oaks) headline the meeting, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail in the true position.
We've got tips and comments for every race on the card below!
MORPHETTVILLE RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 2 - (5) A Shin Rook
Best Value Bet: Race 3 - (3) Working From Home
RACE 1 - Queen Adelaide Stakes 1050m
Tough race to start off with a Listed event for the two-year-olds, which sees a field of seven and four horses rated between $3.20-$4.20. (2) Li'l Kontra is yet to miss the placings from seven career starts and was a last-start winner in this grade. She's yet to finish out of the top two at this track and distance. She'll likely sit outside the leader from barrier 7 and prove tough to beat again. (3) Absolute Flirt comes across to Adelaide after saluting first up in midweek company in Melbourne. She ran 2nd to Yes Yes Yes last preparation so it was little surprise to see her win fresh and a repeat performance would have her right in this. She should get the sit on the leaders' heels. (4) Hearty Lass has had just one start for an easy 3.5L victory on the Morphettville Parks track, where Li'l Kontra was back in 3rd. Interestingly, Li'l Kontra started a very well-backed $1.55 favourite in that race, but was upset by Hearty Lass. Li'l Kontra has since atoned for the defeat with a comfortable win. If you follow SP profiles, it could be worth sticking with Li'l Kontra based on the market that day. (5) Balaabel makes her debut for Tony McEvoy and Barend Vorster. She's had two trials and won the latest of them by 11.5L so on that, she rates highly. Lastly, I think the clear value in the race and perhaps the horse that's been overlooked is (7) Italian Witness. She started $3.40 favourite for a race at Flemington on debut on New Years Day. Clearly, based on her starting price that day, she has some ability. She failed and was sent out for a spell immediately. She jumped out really well at Flemington last week in the lead up to this, leading all the way to record a comfortable victory under a hold. Jamie Kah is a strong jockey booking and from barrier 1, she could jump to the lead and take plenty of catching. Very hard to split these but I'll have something on Absolute Flirt and something small on the value play, Italian Witness. Balaabel might be worth saving on.
Value: (7) Italian Witness $11
RACE 2 - Open Handicap 1600m
(5) A Shin Rook looks very hard to beat here after winning over this track and distance last time out. He defeated Guizot on that occasion, who then came out and won at Warrnambool during the week. His other start at this track and distance was two starts ago, when beaten by half-a-length in Listed grade behind Mantastic and Silentz. While his form in Australia looks fairly inconsistent, that could possibly be attributed to striking wet tracks. He's never placed on wet ground from five attempts. If you ignore those, he's placed in five of his six starts on Good ground in Australia, including three wins. He'll get Good ground here, a good draw and a strong jockey booking with Craig Williams in the saddle. Looks clearly the one to beat. (3) Hussybay won a Listed race over 1400m on the Parks track last start and gets blinkers reapplied third up today. He's won two from four when third up, has a good record at the track and distance, gets a good draw and Jamie Kah on board. Plenty of positives there. (1) Lite'n In My Veins has a good record here with three wins from five starts. He gets a senior jockey back on today and is ready to show something after three runs back.
RACE 3 - DC McKay Stakes 1100m
Another very good little race. (2) Haunted looks the one to beat and with any luck should probably be winning this, but he'll need a good ride from barrier 1. He'll likely sit in the box seat third the rail and is bound to need luck in the straight to find a gap. If that luck comes, he probably wins. He's got six wins from 12 starts overall and returned better than ever with a dominant first up win in Melbourne, beating Group 1 winner Dollar For Dollar by 2L. I think the big overs in the race could be (3) Working From Home, who was beaten 2.1L in 3rd behind Haunted first up. Her second up record suggests she improves significantly with one run under the belt; she has two wins and a 2nd from three starts when second up. She'll probably sit outside the leader and she should give a very good sight. (1) Hard Empire was a dominant winner in Group 3 company at this track and distance first up. He's never missed a place from six starts at the track. His problem here is that he carries 2.5-3kg more than every other runner. (4) Despatch has returned in good form, with two wins from two starts this prep. Both of those have been very good wins as he's had to sit wide without cover on both occasions. He won a Listed race at this track and distance third up last prep so he's sure to be hitting the line hard from the back of the field. (7) Petrelle looked to have plenty of ability last prep. She returned with a win at Geelong but she'd need to improve quite significantly off that to be winning this, in my opinion.
Value: (3) Working From Home $14
RACE 4 - BM90 Handicap 2000m
Siding with (11) Handsome Return here, who was a dominant winner over 1550m on the Parks track two starts ago, before a luckless run at Caulfield last start. He was forced to sit three-wide without cover over the mile and was still only beaten 0.3L. He won't have that problem from barrier 2 today; he could end up third the fence. He should be ready for the step up to 2000m after that tough run last start and he's won over 2100m previously so the distance shouldn't be an issue. (8) Thunder Cloud is another that had to do it tough last start, sitting wide without cover as the heavily-backed favourite in a 2000m race at Caulfield. Our Libretto won that race and then ran well in Sydney, while 3rd placegetter Sheezdashing ran 2nd in the Warrnambool Cup, so the form looks strong. Craig Williams takes over from the apprentice today but barrier 10 isn't ideal at all. If he can slide in to a position one off the rail somewhere around midfield, he'll take plenty of beating. (7) All Too Huying comes off an 1800m win in Melbourne and looks the likely leader. He'll take plenty of running down but I think Handsome Return can sit on his heels, hopefully peel off around the corner and run him down. (2) Octabello was well-backed last start and gets the blinkers off for the first time today. He might be some value at double figure odds, while (4) Brown Ben should be ready with two runs under his belt.
(11) Handsome Return
$3.60
RACE 5 - Queen of the South Stakes 1600m
Found this to be the toughest race of the day, with 16 runners lining up over the mile. Had to side with the class of (1) Spanish Reef, who drops back from the Group 1 Coolmoore Legacy Stakes in Sydney, where she was beaten 1.2L in 5th. She jumped slow and settled well back in the race, which isn't her typical racing pattern, so it was a good effort. Prior to that, she was beaten a nose in a Group 2 at Moonee Valley, with a Group 3 victory over Nantaali preceding that. She has to carry 58.5kg here, but if she can get across from barrier 10, she'll go close. (4) Clearly was completely luckless in her first Australian start at Caulfield. She was sent out big odds but looked as if she would have been right in the finish had it not been for her getting stuck behind a wall of horses. She's got a good second up record but it's been a long time since she was really competitive in a race. Damien Oliver is booked today and trainer Archie Alexander has had three runners at Morphettville this season, with all three finishing in the money. She looks a big chance here. (16) Tahitian Dancer is probably the value in the race at $9.00. She didn't get much luck at all here last start and wasn't beaten far at all in Sydney before that. Drawn better in barrier 3 today and with just 53kg she can be very competitive. (6) Spanish Glass was very heavily backed last start and won despite covering plenty of ground. She's now got six wins and three 2nds from 11 starts. That record deserves recognition so include her at $$21.
Value: Tahitian Dancer $9.00
RACE 6 - Group 1 Schweppes Oaks 2000m
I've been with (7) Amangiri ever since her debut run and I'm not dropping off here. She should have won last start in Sydney, where she was held up the entire straight and went to the line untested. That was her first go at 2000m and so we know the distance won't be an issue for her. I'd expect to see her right up on the speed from barrier 2 and hopefully from there, she gets the breaks she needs. The slight concern is the fact this is her sixth start in her first preparation, but at $6.00 I have to back her. (4) Mirette looks a great chance at double figure odds. She's unlucky not to be undefeated this preparation. Her only defeat was behind Princess Jenni at Moonee Valley, where she was caught wide without cover throughout the race and only ended up beaten 0.8L. She bounced back with victory in the G3 Schweppervescence Stakes last start, which is typically a strong form reference for this race. At $12 she appeals. (3) Princess Jenni won second up at Moonee Valley, where she defeated Mirette, before being a late scratching in Sydney on suspicion of raceday treatment. She missed the run but returned to Melbourne the next week and carried 60kg to victory over the mile. She looks hard to beat. (1) Aristia drops back from 2400m of the Australian Oaks but her form prior to that race behind the likes of Verry Elleegant was very good. (10) Sizzelme is going well and is worth including at big odds, while Waller's pair of (8) Sure Knee and (9) Zalatte will be somewhere around the mark.
RACE 7 - Group 1 TAB Classic 1200m
Looks a fairly weak edition of the Robert Sangster Stakes and when I first looked at the race, there was only one horse that stood out, and that was (14) Thrillster. She looks to be one of the few horses in this race that hasn't really come into this as an afterthought. It looks a fairly deliberate plan from the stable to target this race and she still has plenty of upside with just eight career starts under the belt. She was a Listed winner and Group 2 placed behind Smart Melody before starting well in the market in the G1 Thousand Guineas at the end of last prep. She's clearly a sprinter and that's what they've kept her to this prep. Her first up run was good - she was only beaten a narrow margin but she had to carry all the weight first up from a spell that day. She's undefeated from two previous second up starts and I think she's definitely got the class to be very competitive in this grade. She will roll forward from barrier 11 and senior rider Stephen Baster takes over from apprentice Liam Riordan for today's feature. I expect her to run a cracker. (1) Spright looks the mare with the most ability in the race but she's becoming very costly for punters with her racing pattern. She gets a long way back in her races and that means she relies on luck a lot of the time. She's run some enormous races in some top tier WFA Group 1 sprints, but from barrier 15 she'll be a long way back and might just leave it too late again. (2) Cool Passion was only beaten 2.5L by Trapeze Artist and Shoals last start. She's been freshened up for this. (5) I'll Have A Bit is another that needs plenty of luck but she ran huge in this race last year and didn't have much luck last start. Include her at big odds.
RACE 8 - TAB Euclase Stakes 1200m
Found it very hard to split these top three runners in the market. (2) Terbium is undefeated from four career starts, including a strong victory over Zousain last time we saw him. He returns from a 10-week spell today and has trialled well leading into it. Curragh actually came out of that trial and won at Warrnambool during the week. Will need a good ride from barrier 9 to slot in, but if he does, he'll be giving the other two at the top of the market something to chase. (5) Behemoth was dominant in two starts last prep and returned with an outstanding effort behind Humma Humma first up. He's drawn barrier 14 here so is likely to get back in the field, meaning he'll have the task ahead of him to chase them down. (15) Turfane was an absolute horror show last start when Damien Oliver was caught behind a wall of horses until the 100m mark. Once he finally got clear, Turfane motored home down the outside but the bird had flown long before that. I think that race will prove a good form reference, with Thrillster finishing 2nd in it (my tip for the Sangster Stakes). Dwayne Dunn takes over the ride today and is drawn nicely in barrier 5. If he can be slightly further forward and get the horse into clear running, I think he'll win. Very happy to risk (1) Valour Road, who has won three races but all of them have been when first up from a spell. Keen to take him on here. If there's a blowout chance to include at massive odds, it's (9) Sweet Rockette at 50/1. She's got plenty of talent and returns from a spell today. She won her first trial and then was given a very quiet time of things last start. Expect her to go forward from the inside gate and she could run a very cheeky race at huge odds.
Value: (9) Sweet Rockette $51
